Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan paid an official visit to France on September 26, 2022. As it may be recalled, on September 13, 2022, the French President informed Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan that he was willing to help resolve the problem between the two countries. In reality, before the visit in question, the French president has held a phone call with Pashinyan.
On September 29, 2022, Pashinyan accused that the allies of Yerevan had failed to deliver the weapons that Armenia had purchased. Pashinyan, who did not name the country, stated that this is the painful truth and the situation should be analyzed.[1] One may claim that Pashinyan is looking for a Western ally given the statement of the Armenian leader and his visit to France. During his visit to Paris, Pashinyan met with President of France Emmanuel Macron. France is one of the nations with a sizable Armenian diaspora, as is well known. In order to win the support of the French Armenians, Macron also places a high value on his ties with Armenia. Macron called Aliyev on September 27, 2022, and told him about the meeting that had taken place on September 26, 2022.
At the same time, Hikmet Hajiyev, Foreign Policy Adviser of Presidency of Azerbaijan, and Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of the Armenian Security Council, were brought together in Washington by Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor of the United States of America (USA). Grigoryan said the following in his statement about the meeting:[2]
“We have discussed the long-term peaceful settlement process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as well as the necessity of establishing peace in the region. We attached importance to the elimination of the consequences of the latest aggression.”
Hajiyev claimed that his encounter with Grigoryan was held in a productive atmosphere. The summit was organized with the intention of advancing the peace agenda, which includes developing a peace agreement, determining the border between the two nations, opening transportation routes and removing landmines, and searching for people who have gone missing during the Karabakh War. Sullivan’s evaluation of the interview was as follows:[3]
“Today, I hosted Hajiyev and Grigoryan for direct and constructive talks. We discussed the importance of avoiding further violence and pursuing time-bound and focused negotiations. We also identified concrete steps forward in support of a stable and lasting peace.”
Suren Papikyan, the defense minister for Armenia, traveled to France to meet with his French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu after the meeting in Washington, which is a noteworthy occurrence. “We talked about the circumstances required for the fighting to end and for the Azerbaijani forces to return to their original positions” said Papikyan.[4] Lecornu also declared that France would dispatch a military delegation to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border to assess the regional situation.[5]
During the Second Karabakh War, France actually stayed out of the developments in the South Caucasus. Despite positioning itself as the political ally of Yerevan, Paris has not participated in the conflict and hasn’t been able to exert its influence over it. On the other hand, it should be recalled that in 2020, Azerbaijan withdrew from the negotiations on the grounds that the Minsk Group, including France, was ineffective.
However, Russia made the decision to serve as a mediator in the Second Karabakh War and helped to sign the armistice. As a result, Moscow obtained the right to send peacekeepers to Karabakh with the permission of Baku and actively participated in the formation of the committee that would determine the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia, on the other hand, sees Russia as responsible for its defeat in the war. As a matter of fact, after the war in 2020, it did not receive the support it expected from Russia in any of the border conflicts with Azerbaijan.
It is clear that Yerevan has increased its contacts with Western nations as a result of both its desire to leave Russia’s sphere of influence and the fact that it did not receive the support it had hoped for from that country. In this sense, Armenia is trying to position itself as the gateway of Washington and Paris to the South Caucasus.
Although Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Organization (CSTO), it has lost faith and trust in the alliance because the country did not receive any support from the alliance in the conflict back in 2020. Then, CSTO said that it would not get involved in the border conflict that broke out on September 13, 2022. For example, Kazakhstan has declared that although it is a member of the organization, it values relations with Azerbaijan and has fraternal ties with the Azerbaijani people.
On the other hand, Armenia has decided not to participate in the CSTO Exercise held in Kazakhstan in September 2022. Despite this, Armenia’s membership in the CSTO continues due to the fact that it has not yet fully established the desired relationship with the Western countries and due to the reaction of the opposition within the country.
As a result, geopolitical changes are taking place in the South Caucasus. Due to the current situation, Armenia is seeking a Western actor in this situation to provide security guarantees. It creates a suitable ground for the return of the West to the South Caucasus. Within this framework, Armenia’s main goal is to gain the support of the United States and France by creating a space in the region for them. The presence of strong Armenian diasporas in the relevant countries also gives hope to Yerevan. In other words, the growing concern in Yerevan that Russia is providing more support to Azerbaijan is pushing Armenia to get closer to the United States and France. Thanks to Armenia, Washington and Paris are also eager to participate in mediation efforts. This indicates that the influence of the West in the region may increase.
[1] “Пашинян обвинил союзников в срыве поставок оплаченного Арменией оружия”, Tass, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15905289?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[2] “Секретарь Совбеза Армении сообщил подробности о встрече с помощником президента Азербайджана”, Armenpress, https://www.armenpress.am/rus/news/1093539 /, (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[3] “Салливан – о встрече с Григоряном и Гаджиевым: Определили шаги – в поддержку стабильного и прочного мира”, Armenia.Am, https://l24.im/lmWzFf , (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[4] “В Париже встретились министры обороны Франции и Армении”, Radio Azatunyun, https://rus.azatutyun.am/a/32055436.html , (Date of Accession: 29.09.2022).
[5] Ibid.
