Complex and complicated regional “power politics” and global rise to real “geopolitics” has been heavily engaged to fight numerous, unwinnable battles and endless proxies on the soil of Afghanistan for so many years.
Critical analysis of “Iron Angel Theory” reveals names of the main stakeholders of regional power brokers, trans-regional middle powers and superpowers which have been ruthlessly battling out to achieve lion share and protect their own socio-economic, geopolitical, and geostrategic vested interests.
Moreover, it has been a “stumbling block” to achieve greater regional connectivity and immense socio-economic prosperity between Central Asian Region (CAR) and Pakistan and of course Afghanistan. It has been easy prey to “end or great game” doctrine since long which has been famous for the political, diplomatic, and military confrontation that was played for most of the 19th and early 20th centuries. Russian and British Empires and the grand strategies of both of them were to seek influence and control in Afghanistan as well as the neighboring territories in Central and South Asia.
Dirty politics is still active. Series of most recent interviews of incumbent Afghan President Ashraf Ghani with famous German publication Der Spiegel and PAS in the last week has now opened a new Pandora Box in the region.
He purposefully blamed Pakistan to allegedly assist and support Taliban which he termed fatal for peace in Afghanistan especially after withdarwal of the US as well as NATO forces form Afghnaistan. Actually he tried to win the hearts and souls of the West by dramatizing that his life is one bullet away and intentionally followed the policy of fear and promoted culture/climate of fear to prolong his own unpopular regime.
US Congress immediately responded it and termed it serious which has far reaching geopolitical and geostartegic rampifications. Even two of the former US Secretaries of State, Hillary Clinton and Condoleezza Rice shared their worries to the members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee about President Biden’s plan to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan, with Rice suggesting the US may need to go back.
In this regard, America’s chief negotiator on Afghan affairs, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad assured the lawmakers of both Republican and Democratic parties about positive, productive, and participatory role of the government and establishment of Pakistan. He indicated that US may use regional bases for monitoring Afghanistan and watch on China even after the US withdrawal form Afghanistan.
On its part Pakistan being staunch supporter and promoter of Afhan own & Afghan lead soultion strongly rejected these allegations of Afghan President and Chief Secuirty Advisor and termed it untrue, unfcatual, out of the context and base-less. Pakistan does not have any favorites and has been urged to Afghan side to effectively utilize the available forums like Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS) to address all bilateral issues.
Prior to this interview of Afghan President General Qamar Javed Bajwa and DG ISI Lt General Faiz Hameed personally visited Kabul and assured Pakistan’s all-out support to an “inclusive arrangement” in Afghanistan. Presence of British Army General during the meeting indicated some kind of make shift arrangement and sort of guarantor-ship mechanism of UK in the future may be inevitable.
In the past, persuasion of end/great game and dreams of greater regional connectivity have been “battling-out” on the soil of Afghanistan for the last so many years during which destruction, debris and rabbles achieved nothing but greater political chaos, social unrest, ethnic division, and economic meltdown. During the “No Win War” the US injected more than One trillion US dollars. More than 2500 US troops were killed and 20,000 soldiers were seriously wounded.
Moreover, geopolitics of Afghan war has also its regional spillover repercussions due to Pakistan had to bear US$125-130 billion economic and collateral losses along with sacrifices of lives of more than 85000 civilians and armed forces. Furthermore, Pakistan had to face music in terms of frequent infiltrations, deadly attacks and drugs smuggling into its territories in which conflicting geopolitical and geostrategic interests of India and Iran played havocs.
In the past, hot pursuits of “hot waters” of former Soviet Union ended in a historic “strategic retrieve” of 1990s in which the USA and latterly the West convinced Pakistan and various Islamic countries to launch massive resistance drive or holy war against the former USSR by manipulating innocent minds.
To meet this goal, planners & schemers of international geopolitics termed “Communism” as enemy of Islam and Muslims. Saudi Arabia poured huge money to assist various factions of Afghan warlords and Afghan Mujahideen alike to force the former USSR to leave Afghanistan. Resultantly, USSR was disintegrated and Russia was being surfaced.
During the pendency of Afghan war Mujahideens were branded as “angles of God” and “survivors of the West” but again paradigm shift in geopolitics of the regional as well as international establishments and they were subsequently rebranded as “terrorists” and “enemies” of humanity and civilization.
Afterwards, Afghanistan has been again “playground” of various regional as well as international “movers and shakers” and resultantly huge human and collateral damaged has been incurred. Many regional countries supported “Taliban outburst” which ultimately toppled the incumbent Afghan government and controlled the capital. It was the era of war lordship. They succeeded to capture most of the provinces and rural areas.
Northern Alliance having rich cultural/ethnic diversity comprising of Uzbek, Tajik, Hazara intentionally supported by Russia, Iran and other regional countries and remained isolated but strived hard to maintain its geopolitical and geostrategic importance. Thus, it started endless clashes between Taliban and Northern Alliance.
The West has been blaming Pakistan to organizing and nurturing Taliban for achieving conceived notion of “strategic depth”. But counter secret offensives of regional countries agencies sabotaged Pakistan’s so called sponsored victory and then started a zigzag merciless hybrid war in the region during which geopolitics was at its peak and humanity was remained its lowest ebbs.
Follies of Taliban in terms of a civilized governance, decent diplomacy, capacity building mechanism, inadequate finances, sustainable economic system, national wide social cohesion, modern political system and last but not least, alignment to international order suffered them badly in which terrible incident of 9/11 proved decisive and terminal to their rule in Afghanistan.
Geopolitical landscape was totally changed with landing of the US and NATO allied forces on the soil of Afghan after the terrible incident of 9/11. Initially, Taliban showed some resistance but ultimately was defeated and on the run into remote areas of Afghanistan where they again regrouped and started an unending clash of titanic.
Geopolitics once again turned violent and the extremists group of Al-Qaeda found a safe havens and launching pad in Afghanistan which remained a strategic threat to the US and the West alike. Wıth the passage of time, it was severely damaged. It was replaced by the ISIS a new notorious global franchise of fear and terror but the US, NATO and even Taliban successfully cut its wings.
Some considerable regional reconciliatory efforts and formulas were presented by the Republic of Uzbekistan (6+3 format) and Pakistan (6+2 format) but both could not achieve any success because of conflicting geopolitics of the global powers. The incontinence US policy and shifting security preferences towards the region and especially, Afghanistan slipped it into the hands of war lords, paddlers, and smugglers. Self-defined categorization of good Taliban & bad Taliban by the US further marginalized scope of durable peace and stability in Afghanistan.
In this connection, US mantra of “do more” had worsened bilateral relations between Pakistan and the US in which alleged network of Black Water Security played havocs.
Even one of the neighboring country India’s so called diplomatic presence in shape of numerous consulates long the border of Afghanistan with Pakistan has been giving a though time for Pakistan in terms of infiltrations, insurgences, sabotages acts and secretive activities in KPK, FATA, and Balochistan but professional armed forces of Pakistan showed great resistance and ultimately out-rooted this menace. Ultimately, national narrative was rephrased and re-projected to reach on consensus towards fight against terrorism.
Some CIA and Pentagon classified reports clearly indicated Russian invisible support to Taliban and also to various insurgent groups to hit-hard the USA & NATO troops in Afghanistan. Thus, vicious circle of blame game and tit-for-tat has been active in Afghanistan in the past.
The U.S. and the Taliban signed an historic agreement on February 29, 2020 in Doha which called for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan within 14 months if the Taliban upheld the terms of the agreement.
With continuation to Doha agreement Russian held an important international conference in Moscow on March 19 March 2021 in which all main stakeholders of Afghanistan and regional countries participated. The joint statement upheld that Afghan government and the Taliban agreed to try to accelerate talks aimed at ending decades of war in the country.
The United States, Russia, China, and Pakistan called on Afghanistan’s warring sides to “engage immediately in discussions on fundamental issues to resolve the conflict.” Moreover, all concerned parties were advised to care about “the foundations of the future peaceful and stable Afghan state, the content of a political road map leading to an inclusive government, and the modalities of a permanent and comprehensive cease-fire.
On the other hand, unfortunately, Central Asia Region had been under strict rule of former USSR before independence and was remained under vigilant surveillance of Russia in the post era. The ideal combination of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) apparently, lessened the socio-economic integration and regional connectivity of the CAR with outer regions like South Asia and beyond.
The US counter narrative was developed in shape of C+ 5 partnerships with Central Asian countries which has now re-matched by Chines (China & + Central Asian Countries alliance). Thus, chessboard of regional as well international power geopolitics converges and diverges accordingly, and sage still continues.
Turkey and Qatar have been remained middle power geopolitical motivators and facilitators and played substantial roles in the ongoing geopolitical struggle for supremacy. Qatar purposefully permitted Taliban to open its office in Doha and lessened elements of invisibility which ultimately started series of meaningful negotiations spells between the US and Taliban.
On its part, Turkey has been staging heart of the Asia Conferences, track-II diplomacy efforts and last but not least, socio-economic assistance programs to win some kind of trust of Taliban to be on the path of dialogue and diplomacy instead of violence and destruction.
Now geopolitics has entered into new phase of engagement in terms of easy and smooth supplies of energy resources of & from the CIS, exploitation of energy reservoirs of Eurasia, Caspian Sea by all the CIS, China, Iran, and the USA, China economic predominance in shape of One Belt & One Road Initiative (BRI), China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and revival of ancient Silk Route has further drawn the new lines, principles, conditions, utilities, scopes and prospects of geopolitics in the region and beyond. But it clearly seems that Chinese principle of engagement has been based on shared prosperity, collective socio-economic prosperity, security, and solidarity.
Mismatching socio-economic preferences and priorities of India and other regional countries have been labeling the BRI and CPEC as tools of so-called Chinese imperialism which is absolutely wrong and ill conceived. Moreover, India’s geopolitical hegemonic designs have been forcing it to indulge in meaningless misadventures.
Initially, the US missed the May 1 deadline, extending it to September 11 a move which angered the Taliban. The Afghan peace process hangs in the balance as the US began withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. With Taliban refusing to join the Istanbul Conference, there has been spike in violence in Afghanistan. But somehow sanity prevailed and Taliban now participated in Doha dialogue. There are fears that Afghanistan may slip into another cycle of civil war if parties concerned fail to agree on a peace deal.
The United States has completed its withdrawal from Kandahar Airfield in Southern Afghanistan once the second largest military base in the country for US forces. Coincidently, it started deadly onslaught of Taliban in 18 provinces and further deteriotaed law & order situation in the country.
To conclude being prominent regional expert of Central Asia & South Asia I suggest some Confidence building measures (CBMs) among all the main stakeholders of Afghanistan and regional countries should be initiated at once to achieve a durable and sustainable political solution in Afghanistan which is very important for greater regional connectivity, immense socio-economic integration and enhanced food & energy cooperation between the Central Asia & South Asia.
Role of Pakistan is paramount in which Uzbekistan and Turkey may devise a joint working strategy to proceed further to achieve peace in Afghanistan but benchmark should be Afghan Lead & Afghan Own solution. Possibility for the deployment of a coalition armed force comprising of Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Iran may be explored and implemented with consent of all dealing parties after the withdrawal of the US & NATO allied forces from Afghanistan.
President of Afghanistan has recently held talks with influential political leaders, namely the reconciliation council chief Abdullah Abdullah, former president Hamid Karzai, former mujahedeen leader Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf, and others to build a consensus around peace and form a high-level state council which is a right step in right direction.
Internally, start of Grand National reconciliation among the various stakeholders of Afghanistan is the way forward because ongoing lethal investments into warlords may achieve nothing but greater chaos and uncertainty.
Although the current US National Security Strategy describes China and Russia as the revisionist powers and identifies a geo-political competition taking place between the free and repressive visions of the world order in the Indo-pacific region. Nevertheless, let us start collective journey from ashes of geopolitics to greenery of geo-economy, from conspiracies and conflicts to commitments, cooperation, and corridors to make this region a land of interconnectivity, integration, peace, productivity and prosperity.
Let us work together to control the genie of geopolitics in the region so that long awaited dreams of regional connectivity may be achieved as soon as possible for which serious efforts and projects have already been announced and pursued in shape of Pakistan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan trans-railways projects, TAPI, CASA-1000 etc.
