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China’s New Military-Security Moves in Pakistan and Afghanistan

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According to high-level diplomatic and security sources in Islamabad, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is trying to establish military bases in Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to secure the Belt-Road Initiative and expand its effectiveness within its close quarters.[1] An unnamed Pakistani diplomatic source stated that China’s Ambassador to Islamabad, Nong Rong, met with Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Land Forces Commander General Qamar Javid Bajva.[2] In fact, the claims that China has made demands to establish military bases in the states where it signed an agreement in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative are not new.

Likewise, one of the most discussed issues in China’s 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, which was signed three years ago, was the claim that 5,000 Chinese security personnel would be deployed in Iran with an aim to protect economic projects. In the last few months, Beijing has allegedly signed security agreements with Pacific Island countries, especially the Solomon Islands, or wanted to acquire military bases there. The claims that China would establish bases have expanded to Myanmar, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in the meantime. Based on this, it can be said that China has changed its military-security strategies, especially regarding Pakistan and Afghanistan.

According to allegations in the Indian press in July 2022, Pakistan rejected China’s request to establish a security company in Pakistan.[3] The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Pakistan has declared that they cannot allow foreign countries to establish security companies in the country.[4] In other words, they gave the message that China could not be granted a privilege in this regard. Indeed, the presence of foreign forces is seen as a matter of national security for Pakistan and is approached sensitively. For example, in 2021, Former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan announced that they would not allow the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the country after the withdrawal of United States (US) troops from Afghanistan.[5] However, Pakistan previously leased out its bases to the United States for operations in Afghanistan. Therefore, the fact that the US and the CIA are allowed to exist in Pakistan, and that China is now allowed to establish its own security company has been met with anger by Beijing.

China reacts to the Islamabad administration since the latter has not taken the necessary measures for attacks on China’s projects and facilities in Pakistan. Following the death of three Chinese teachers in the bomb attack on the Confucius Institute in Karachi in April 2022, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a strong statement saying, “The blood of the Chinese cannot be spilled in vain, the dark hands behind this event will definitely pay the price.[6] It is estimated that China increased its pressure to establish its own security company in Pakistan after this date. The Beijing administration seems to have begun to think that the Islamabad Government is incapable of protecting China’s economic and security interests in Pakistan. Therefore, China might have taken steps to contribute to Pakistan’s security as a pre-emptive action. Indeed, likewise initiatives from China are observed in Afghanistan.

The withdrawal of the US and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member allies from Afghanistan in July 2021 meant both a threat and an opportunity for China. While security-terrorism problems pose a threat to various projects, the power gap left by US soldiers has created an opportunity for China to spread its military power here. Previously, the United States ensured the security of the country. In the current situation, China does not want to undertake the same task. Rather, Beijing expects the Taliban to establish security in the country and aims to support them in this regard. Although China cooperates with the Taliban to address the security situation in Afghanistan, it cannot play the role that the US and NATO had in the region. Even worse, China faces the risk of being dragged into the regional crisis. Due to this risk, in the last year, the Beijing administration has asked the Taliban to assign Chinese private security companies in Afghanistan as well.[7] The Taliban is normally against the presence of foreign forces in the country. However, it can accept this offer by China under the guise of “private companies” upon necessity.

The Taliban is politically under the grip of Beijing and is likely to take its demands into consideration. According to a study, China has been the country with the highest number of (71) meetings with the Taliban since July 2021.[8] From this point of view, it is possible to argue that China has increased its capacity to influence and control the Taliban as much as possible in the last year. As a general statement, it can be said that China has accepted the Taliban reality in Afghanistan before many other countries in the world. For example, for a minister affiliated to the Taliban Government, the descriptions “Afghan minister” or “Afghan government official” are used in the Chinese state-run newspaper the Global Times.[9] In addition, Chinese media claimed that the Taliban provided Afghanistan with “better security” than the US and had better administrational capabilities.[10] These words can be considered as China’s efforts to lure the Taliban into its side. Beijing wishes to use the Taliban as a proxy, rather than taking responsibility itself.

Based on this idea, Beijing states that the Taliban is sufficient to ensure the security of Afghanistan. However, its main aim is to use the Taliban to establish its presence in Afghanistan, especially militarily. More specifically, China is trying to deploy its own security forces or establish military bases in Afghanistan, as mentioned above. It seeks to cooperate closely with the Taliban to secure the Wakhan Corridor. If the Taliban had not seized power, the US presence in the region would have continued, and China would not have been able to get Kabul to act according to its demands regarding counterterrorism. At this point, China can get a counterterrorism promise from the Taliban at the very least.

The complete abandonment of democratic governance in Afghanistan is even more advantageous for China. Beijing strives to create a “protection shield” for itself by forming a “close quarters axis”. Therefore, the Taliban administration in Afghanistan is an important opportunity for China. If the Taliban remains in power, China will continue to increase its military effectiveness in the region.

Here, it can be stated that China has started to move away from the traditional foreign policy principles of “not to interfere with the internal affairs of other countries” and “to respect their sovereignty”. There are claims that China has started to put pressure on countries it considers weak, such as Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Solomon Islands, Cambodia, and Afghanistan. In addition, it can be said that the Beijing administration now tries to influence regional actors such as Iran and Pakistan through various demands.

A recent example is that China sent a research vessel to Sri Lanka, acting on its own pursuits despite the warnings of India. A similar situation was seen when the President of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed her plane in Taiwan. Pelosi made this visit despite China’s demands. In the present case, China has sent its research vessel to Sri Lanka by objecting New Delhi, and thus despite India’s demands. Based on this approach, it can be predicted that China will continue to make more determined moves in its close quarters, especially in Pakistan and Afghanistan, to actualize its own wishes in the military field. If Islamabad and the Taliban do not accept China’s demands, Beijing may act even more insistently.

[1] “After Docking Ship In Lanka, China Wants To Send Troops To Pak: Report”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/after-docking-ship-in-sri-lanka-china-wants-to-send-troops-to-pakistan-report-3261150, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[2] Ibid.

[3] “China Disappoints with Pakistan’s refusal for Opening Security Company in Country”, The Print, https://theprint.in/world/china-disappoints-with-pakistans-refusal-for-opening-security-company-in-country/1023445/, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[4] “Pakistan Turns Down China’s Request to Open Security Company in Country”, The Print, https://theprint.in/world/pakistan-turns-down-chinas-request-to-open-security-company-in-country/1001651/, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[5]“Pakistan Eski Başbakanı: ABD’nin Üs Talebini Reddettiğim İçin Hedef Alındım”, İstanbul’un Sesi, https://www.istanbulunsesi.net/2022/04/14/pakistan-eski-basbakani-abdnin-us-talebini-reddettigim-icin-hedef-alindim/, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[6] “Pakistan’daki Saldırıda 3 Çinli Hayatını Kaybetmişti… Pekin’den Açıklama Geldi: Bedelini Ödeyecekler!”, CNN Türk, https://www.cnnturk.com/dunya/pakistandan-saldirida-3-cinli-hayatini-kaybetmisti-pekinden-aciklama-geldi-bedelini-odacakler, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[7] “Afghanistan: The Next Frontier for China’s Private-Security Companies?”, IISS, https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/10/afghanistan-the-next-frontier-for-chinas-private-security-companies, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[8] @bedbolukbasi, “Washington Yakın Doğu Araştırmaları Enstitüsü, Taliban ile hangi ülke yetkililerinin kaç kez görüştüğünü gösteren bir grafik yayınladı.”, Twitter, https://twitter.com/bedbolukbasi/status/1559284036509523968?s=20&t=b8gFgw8G3rxgo3Jb8sN5sg, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[9] “Afghan Minister Holds Talks with Chinese Mining Firm, Progress to be Expected”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1270825.shtml, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

[10] “China Praises Taliban for Providing ‘Better Security’ to Afghanistan, Blasts U.S. on Withdrawal Anniversary”, Fox News, https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-praises-taliban-providing-better-security-afghanistan-blasts-u-s-withdrawal-anniversary, (Date of Accession: 17.08.2022).

Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk Tamer graduated from Sakarya University, Department of International Relations in 2014. In the same year, he started his master's degree at Gazi University, Department of Middle Eastern and African Studies. In 2016, Tamer completed his master's degree with his thesis titled "Iran's Iraq Policy after 1990", started working as a Research Assistant at ANKASAM in 2017 and was accepted to Gazi University International Relations PhD Program in the same year. Tamer, whose areas of specialization are Iran, Sects, Sufism, Mahdism, Identity Politics and Asia-Pacific and who speaks English fluently, completed his PhD education at Gazi University in 2022 with his thesis titled "Identity Construction Process and Mahdism in the Islamic Republic of Iran within the Framework of Social Constructionism Theory and Securitization Approach". He is currently working as an Asia-Pacific Specialist at ANKASAM.