Sanctions are among the foreign policy elements that states generally apply for deterrence. The basis of these sanctions is mostly economic decisions. The main argument for the use of sanctions is to put pressure on the decision-making mechanisms of countries. But things do not always go as planned. Sanctions against Russia are one of the current examples of this.
Due to the Ukraine War, many sanctions are imposed on Russia by Western states, especially the United States of America (USA). For this reason, the Russian economy was adversely affected, the ruble experienced a significant decline against the dollar,[1] and more than a thousand companies were withdrawn from the Russian market.[2] However, the Russian Army did not withdraw from Ukraine. Moreover, Russia has annexed the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine in violation of international law, despite the pressure of sanctions.[3] This is very important as it shows that Russia has not taken a step back in the face of sanctions.
Although sanctions are used to influence the decision-making mechanisms of states, the effect of these sanctions depends on the variables that the targeted actor takes into account when determining their policies. These variables are often associated with the economy, security, public support, and political goals. In addition to these, the power dynamics between countries are also very critical. In other words, the ability of another actor to fight sanctions is as important as the power of a state to impose sanctions.
In addition to all these, Russian President Vladimir Putin can still reach 70%-80% of the votes in the polls, despite his twenty-three years in power.[4] At the same time, it is stated that those who support the Ukraine War in the country are around 60%.[5] This is extremely high support. Undoubtedly, it also increases the Kremlin’s self-confidence.
Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and its multi-state system also creates vulnerability and raises doubts about the indefinite viability of sanctions. As it is known, European countries import about 40% of their natural gas from Russia, and Gazprom’s reduction in supply negatively affects the economy of European states. As a matter of fact, in July 2022, European heads of state decided to reduce the use of natural gas by 15%.[6] In the long run, European states can sign new gas agreements with new suppliers by building new gas terminals. But this will take quite a long time. In the short term, the economic recession seems inevitable.
Understandably, there are debates about the long duration of the war and sanctions. It is a matter of curiosity how long the European actors can withstand this. It is also known that most of the wheat and grain are supplied from Russia and Ukraine. In other words, Russia has an undeniable role in the global food supply. Protests are already held in many countries due to rising energy prices. In other words, governments that impose sanctions may face serious public pressure. There are signs of this. The aforementioned issues are the main reason why the Kremlin does not take a step back and the deterrence of sanctions decreases. In other words, the fragility of Europe relieves the Moscow administration in terms of sanctions and prevents Putin from taking a step back.
On the other hand, rather than sanctions; it should be emphasized that the actions are of a deterrent nature. For example, Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait in 1991 was not happened because of sanctions; it happened because of coalition forces. Putin, on the other hand, has not faced any deterrent action yet. It is not expected to meet shortly.
On the other hand, there are many examples where sanctions are effective. Because sanctions can lead to effective results when implemented together with international organizations under the leadership of the states that are the dominant power in the international arena. However, the effectiveness of sanctions is closely related to the target country’s belief that the gains it will achieve if it continues to act are not worth the possible consequences of the sanctions. However, Putin’s moves show that he finds the cost of the sanctions acceptable.
From a realist perspective, global reality forces state to pursue their national interests by using various tools. Sanctions are one of these tools. At the same time, an important reason why sanctions are famous and popular is that there is no other way to influence the decision-making mechanisms of states other than dialogue and force. Moreover, sanctions are much less costly than military operations. This also applies to the sanctions imposed on Russia. For this reason, Western states are implementing sanctions targeting the Moscow administration. However, the sustainability and effectiveness of sanctions are highly controversial. Even though eight months have passed since the beginning of the war, the tendency of the Moscow administration to escalate the war continues and there is no indication that Putin will step back.
[1]“Russian Ruble Plunges Nearly 30% Against the Dollar Amid Sanctions over Ukraine Invasion”, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-ruble-dives-nearly-30percent-against-the-dollar-amid-sanctions-ukraine-crisis.html, (Date of Accession: 20.10.2022).
[2] “Over 1,000 Foreign Companies Left Russia since Feb. 24: Report”, Alarabiya News, https://english.alarabiya.net/business/2022/05/31/Over-1-000-foreign-companies-left-Russia-since-Feb-24-Report, (Date of Accession: 20.10.2022).
[3] “Ukraine ‘Referandums’: Full Results for Annexation Polls as Kremlin-Backed Authorities Claim Victory”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/occupied-areas-of-ukraine-vote-to-join-russia-in-referendums-branded-a-sham-by-the-west, (Date of Accession: 20.10.2022).
[4] “Poll Shows Putin Ratings Climb Among Russians Since Ukraine Invasion”, RFERL, https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-poll-ratings-climb/31781913.html, (Date of Accession: 20.10.2022).
[5] “58 Percent of Russians Support the Invasion of Ukraine, and 23 Percent Oppose It, New Poll Shows”, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-public-opinion-ukraine-invasion/, (Date of Accession: 20.10.2022).
[6] “EU Asks Member States To Cut Natural Gas Demand 15% By Next Spring”, Anadolu Agency, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-asks-member-states-to-cut-natural-gas-demand-15-by-next-spring/2641445, (Date of Accession: 20.10.2022).
