Although Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh ended with the Moscow Declaration of November 9, 2020 signed as a result of the Second Karabakh War, a permanent peace agreement could not be signed in the more than two years since this ceasefire. In this case, various factors have an effect. First of all, it should be stated that despite the willingness of the Armenian Government to reach a permanent peace agreement, the Karabakh Clan and the Armenian Diasporas, which have given to Armenian politics for many years, advocate a return to the status quo of occupation and try to put pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the negotiation processes through various social movements. In addition, it is recalled that from time to time, radical sections in the Armenian Army made some provocations and led to border clashes that would sabotage the process.
To explain the situation in question, the basic reality revealed by the normalization winds blowing in the region after the war was shaped within the framework of the sensitivity of solving regional problems by the states of the region and the proposal of the “3+3 Regional Cooperation Format” was put on the agenda. However, over time, an environment has been created in which the United States of America (USA) and France operate mediation diplomacy. Also, France has made a number of initiatives through the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, who is a Frenchman. This has led to the involvement of extra-regional actors in the Karabakh Conflict.
The increase in the number of actors involved in the process has led each state to prioritize its own interests, which has already caused the negotiation processes, which already have various difficulties, to become much more complicated.
It has been observed that the meetings between Pashinyan and the President of Azerbaijan Mr. Ilham Aliyev, who have met many times at different addresses, are generally blocked on three issues. The first is the determination of the boundary between the parties. At this point, it can be stated that Azerbaijan does not compromise its borders recognized by the United Nations (UN) and therefore by international law. In fact, it is known that the Pashinyan administration has given some messages that it is ready to recognize the legitimate borders of Azerbaijan in this regard. However, in general, in periods of progress on this issue, the process was intended to be sabotaged through provocations that led to border conflict.
The second issue can be said to be the opening of the Zangezur Corridor. On the occasion of this corridor, Azerbaijan, in addition to constituting the Nakhchivan connection, will ensure an uninterrupted land connection between the countries of the Turkic World and will put forward a stable route in the China-Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe connection far beyond this. This means strengthening the Middle Corridor. Therefore, Azerbaijan has an important expectation regarding the opening of this corridor with reference to the Moscow Declaration. Because the corridor will strengthen the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, strengthen its role as a bridge in the integration processes of the Turkic World and contribute to the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of the country with its logistical and energy dimension in the context of the corridors. For this reason, the issue of the Zangezur Corridor is substantial for Baku.
In fact, the corridor in question is in line with Armenia’s interests. On this occasion, Yerevan can overcome its isolation by realizing Pashinyan’s greatest promise to the Armenian people and gaining the space to establish healthy relations with the West. However, despite this, there are some difficulties in front of Yerevan at the point of the Zangezur Corridor. On this issue again, Pashinyan is facing pressure from the opposition.
The third issue is the situation of the Armenians in Karabakh. In this regard, Yerevan states that Karabakh Armenians have various rights in religious, cultural, etc. issues. On the other hand, Baku states that Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan, states that the necessary rights and freedoms are provided to the people living in the whole country and considers this issue as its own internal issue.
While the disputes in question complicate the process; Recently, there have been some discussions on the axis of the Lachin Corridor. Despite the fact that Azerbaijani activists draw attention to the problems in the region, Armenia criticizes the Baku administration by claiming that the Armenians of Karabakh are isolated and carries out an effort to influence the international community.
Despite all these developments, it is seen that the search for peace on the Baku-Yerevan line continues. As a matter of fact, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan announced on February 15, 2023 that they had conveyed the draft peace agreement to Azerbaijan. In addition, Pashinyan stated that the draft was sent to the Minsk Trio of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). This development is significant because it shows that Yerevan has not closed the doors to the negotiation process despite all the difficulties. . However, the fact that the draft includes statements about Karabakh Armenians reveals that some demands will be rejected by Baku.[1] Nevertheless, the functioning of the negotiation process is valuable.
On the other hand, the fact that the proposal was sent to the OSCE Minsk Trio once again revealed that the United States and France wanted to be included in the process at the point of mediation. Because the trio was established for the peace processes carried out after the occupation of Karabakh, but it did not achieve any success in resolving the issue through diplomatic means. Due to the failure of this group consisting of Russia, the United States and France, Azerbaijan had to liberate its occupied territories by force. Therefore, there is a serious mistrust in Baku that this mission will also carry out a solution-oriented diplomacy in the mediation process. As a matter of fact, Azerbaijani officials in various platforms state that the mediation of the Minsk Trio will not be accepted. Especially considering the tension on the Baku-Paris line, it can be foreseen that Yerevan’s effort to involve France in the process will complicate peace talks.
As a result, in the more than two years since the Second Karabakh War, a permanent peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia could not be signed. On the other hand, the Pashinyan administration’s submission of its proposal to Baku on the draft peace agreement and the constructive attitude of the Baku administration can be interpreted as a promising development in terms of showing that the negotiation process will continue to work despite all the difficulties.
[1] “Armenia’s Pashinyan Says Country Sent Draft Peace Agreement to Azerbaijan”, TASS, https://tass.com/world/1577129, (Date of Accession: 17.02.2023).
