On March 25, 2024, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba stated that he had received “disturbing comments” from Germany in response to his country’s request for Taurus missiles.[1] Germany’s reluctance to hand over these missiles, despite Ukraine’s urgent need for them, raises questions about the future of Berlin’s support for Kiev.
Ukraine has repeatedly requested these long-range missiles, but Germany has steadfastly refused to fulfill this request, fearing that such a step would take the war to Russian territory. Despite assurances from Ukraine that the missiles will not be aimed at Russian territory, the Berlin government remains skeptical.
With a range of 310 miles, the Taurus missile is capable of reaching targets far beyond the immediate conflict zone, potentially reaching Russian territory. Drone strikes in and around Moscow, which are believed to have Ukrainian involvement, have raised suspicions about Kiev’s intentions.
Senior staff in the German Army share this view, fearing that if the missiles reach Russian territory, this could drag Germany further into the conflict.[2] In addition, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposes the transfer, arguing that it would make Germany actively “party to the war” and would require German troops on the ground to train Ukrainian forces.[3] Accordingly, the German Bundestag overwhelmingly rejected a bill to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine on January 17, 2024.[4]
Following the US Congress, Germany has taken a similar step, calling into question the West’s support for Ukraine. Germany is keen to end the devastating effects of the protracted war on the European economy, especially on itself. Germany may now realize that there is no way to stop Russia militarily. Berlin has long argued that the burden of this war should be shared equally and fairly between the United States (US) and the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
According to the Scholz government, further arming Ukraine is not a sure way out to end the war. On the contrary, it would only prolong the war. For a long time, the Berlin government insisted on sending Leopard-2 tanks to Kiev. It was only after the US agreed to send its Abrams tanks to Kiev that Germany took a similar step and approved the sending of Leopard-2 tanks.
Similarly, this time the UK stepped in to get Germany to send Taurus missiles. David Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, proposed a workaround in which Germany would send Taurus missiles to the UK and the UK would send more Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. The debate on this issue is also growing in German domestic politics. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party argues that dialogue with the UK is “an option”, while Friedrich Merz, leader of the main opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), argues that Germany should immediately send Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
To clarify Germany’s military aid to Ukraine, this year the country doubled its military aid to Kiev to around €8 billion, a decision approved by the Bundestag on February 2, 2024. The total value of the authorized funding for the development of security capacity in Ukraine over the next few years currently stands at €13.1 billion. [5] Germany’s military and financial support to Ukraine continues. As of the end of 2023, Germany is reported to have provided approximately 15 billion Euros in aid to Ukraine.[6]
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that anyone who tires of supporting Ukraine should think about the consequences for Europe.[7] Rolf Mützenich, leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) in the Bundestag, asked: “Isn’t it time not only to discuss how to wage war, but also to think about how to freeze it and then how to end it?”.[8]
In addition to these controversies in the political arena, it is also reported that the production of Taurus missiles has come to a halt.[9] While efforts are underway to restart production, the focus is on the lack or absence of orders from the government or abroad. If the German government fails to reach a political consensus on the future of military support to Ukraine, the country’s defense industry will be in a very difficult situation. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Germany has turned to revamping its defense industry products and strengthening its military after decades of neglect. However, the Berlin government’s political decision-making process has also experienced significant bottlenecks. Germany is opposed to an open polarization of the West against Russia. In this context, for example, it is uncomfortable with politically motivated support for Ukraine’s NATO membership and does not accept such a membership process.
The war in Ukraine has revealed an important military reality about Germany. Germany, which minimized its army after the Second World War, is not prepared for war. This is an important national security issue. The fact that the majority of Leopard-2 tanks are no longer usable and in need of modernization, as well as the fact that the production of Taurus missiles has come to a halt, have highlighted the significant challenges facing the German Army. This could lead to serious ruptures in Germany’s military support to Ukraine. Whatever the outcome, Berlin’s view of Ukraine remains cautious.
[1] “Ukraine’s Foreign Minister reports Germany’s dissatisfaction with Ukraine’s calls for Taurus missiles”, Euro Integration, https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/26/7182405/, (Date of Access: 01.04.2024).
[2] “‘We Can Do Better & Faster in Germany’: Taurus Developer Unhappy with Berlin Over Delay in Signing Missile Contracts”, Eurasian Times, https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taurus-manufacturer-voices-concern-over-german/, (Date of Access: 01.04.2024).
[3] Same place.
[4] “485 German Votes Banned ‘Ukrainian’ Taurus, Scholz Must Decide”, Bulgarian Military, https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/18/485-german-votes-banned-ukrainian-taurus-scholz-must-decide/, (Date of Access: 01.04.2024).
[5] House of Commons Library, Military assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion, https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9477/CBP-9477.pdf, Research Briefing, 27 March 2024, s. 30-31.
[6] Same place.
[7] “German Finance Minister: Everyone tired of supporting Ukraine should think about consequences for Europe”, Pravda, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/30/7448907/, (Date of Access: 01.04.2024).
[8] Same place.
[9] “Ukraine’s Taurus missile dream fades: Berlin halts production”, Bulgarian Military, https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/03/31/ukraines-taurus-missile-dream-fades-berlin-halts-production/, (Date of Access: 01.04.2024).
