On 10 October 2022, the President of Belarus, Aleksander Lukashenko held a meeting with representatives of the country’s security units. At the meeting, Lukashenko announced that a joint military unit would be established with Russia in the face of possible threats of attack and that he had ordered Russian soldiers to be deployed on the western borders of Belarus. Lukashenko stated that this decision was taken due to the deteriorating situation on the western borders of the country.[1] In this context, Lukashenko opened the meeting with the following message:
“We have been warned by unofficial channels that there will be an attack on Belarus from the territory of Ukraine. We were told that it would be the Crimean Bridge-2 case.”[2]
Following his statement, Lukashenko stated that he had previously agreed with President of Russia Vladimir Putin on the formation of a regional joint military group. As a matter of fact, following the informal Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit, the President of Belarus said that he had met with Putin in St. Petersburg and that this decision was taken during the meeting. In addition, Lukashenko said that Russia is not ready for such a conflict, and stated: “You know that they have enough problems. Therefore, do not rely on the fact that the Russian Army has a large number of soldiers.”[3]
Lukashenko also expressed to the country’s security forces his concern that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and various European states were working on options for attacking Belarus. In this context, Lukashenko said, “There should be no war on the territory of Belarus. And we will do everything to prevent it.”[4]
Lukashenko’s statements also struck the European Union’s (EU) attention. EU Commission’s Lead Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs Peter Stano declared: “We have heard a statement that Belarus and Russia have started to operate through a joint military group. If this is actualized, there will be a new climb in conflicts and the EU will not remain silent.” With this statement, [5] he explains that the accusations made by Lukashenko against Kyiv are unfounded, that Ukraine is in the position of a victim country, not an aggressor, and that Minsk should not allow the territory of Belarus to be used for air attacks on Kyiv.[6]
Lukashenko tries to implement his traditional strategy and makes statements showing that he supports the policies of the Kremlin to receive concessions from Russia on certain issues. As is known, Belarus chose its side by allowing Russia to use its territory during Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Later, it tried to return to the status of neutrality again and wanted to play a mediating role, not allowing operations to be carried out through Belarus. However, Russian soldiers remained in the territory of Belarus after this decision, although these troops are not officially declared.
Minsk’s neutrality forms the basis of Ukraine’s Belarus policy. The most reasonable option for Ukraine is the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus. However, knowing that this will not be easy, Kyiv expects that Minsk at least has an impartial stand and does not fulfill all of Putin’s orders, since this will eliminate Ukraine’s burden of fighting on two fronts and enable Kyiv to concentrate on the eastern and southern regions.
Lukashenko’s claim that Ukraine and NATO would attack Belarus and Belarus’ initiation of a new joint military group with Russia might be related to the decision taken at the Lukashenko-Putin meeting in St. Petersburg. It can be said that the Moscow administration aims at shifting the Ukrainian Army from the eastern and southern regions to the north, taking advantage of the threat Belarus poses by positioning on the northern side of Ukraine. Indeed, Kyiv’s transfer of some of its military forces to the Belarusian border could facilitate Russia’s military efforts.
On the other hand, Lukashenko indicates that he does not want any war on their land. The joint involvement of Belarus and Russia in the Ukrainian War will make it inevitable for the conflicts to spread to the territory of Belarus. This concern leads Lukashenko to be cautious and step away from fulfilling Russia’s orders.
The second factor is the attitude of the West. Belarus’ steps against Ukraine may force some Eastern European countries, especially Poland, to take action. In other words, the situation in the northern borders of Ukraine may result in the intervention of the actors supporting Kyiv. In this sense, Western threats cause Minsk to avoid making radical decisions.
As a result, Lukashenko is forced to establish a joint military group by Moscow on the Ukrainian borders; and on the other side, NATO countries force Belarus to step back by threatening the country. Faced with such a dilemma, it can be predicted that Minsk will choose to act rationally taking into account the national interests of the country, rather than fulfilling the orders of Russia.
[1] “Россия и Белоруссия начали развертывать совместну групировку войск”, Lenta.Ru, https://lenta.ru/news/2022/10/10/grbvnu/, (Date of Accesion: 11.10.2022).
[2] “Лукашенко пригрозил Украине ответом в случае нападения на Белоруссию”, Lenta.Ru, https://lenta.ru/news/2022/10/10/64535/, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[3] “Лукашенко и Путин договорились о развертывании совместной региональной группировки войск”, Balta, https://www.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-i-putin-dogovorilis-o-razvertyvanii-sovmestnoj-regionalnoj-gruppirovki-vojsk-5286-2022/, (Date of Accesion: 11.10.2022).
[4] “Лукашенко: НАТО и ряд стран Европы рассматривают варианты «агрессии» против Белоруссии”, Gazeta.Ru, https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2022/10/10/18760771.shtml?updated, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[5] “ЕС призвал Белорусси воздержаться от агрессивных действий”, Tass, https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/16005937, (Date of Accession: 11.10.2022).
[6] Ibid.
