Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro continues to play a central role in the country’s political agenda as one of the prominent figures of global right-wing populism. Despite legal restrictions preventing his return to power, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party is preparing to nominate him for the 2026 presidential election.[i] This analysis will examine Brazil’s polarized political environment, the legal challenges Bolsonaro faces, and the potential implications of his candidacy for Brazilian democracy and global right-wing movements.
Bolsonaro became a political force by capitalizing on widespread discontent with the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) during the 2018 elections and presenting himself as an anti-establishment candidate. He won the election with a discourse centered on nationalism, militarism, and social conservatism. However, his stances on issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental policies, and political scandals have led to erosion in his support base.
In the 2022 elections, Bolsonaro narrowly lost to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, marking the first time since 1997 that an incumbent president was not re-elected.[ii] Following his defeat, Bolsonaro refused to concede, and some of his supporters called for a military coup to prevent Lula’s inauguration. This situation serves as a significant indicator of how deeply entrenched political divisions have become in Brazil.
After the 2022 elections, Bolsonaro faced accusations of undermining democratic institutions and spreading misinformation, resulting in a temporary ban from public office until 2030. Nevertheless, the Liberal Party is strategizing for his candidacy in 2026, taking into account possible legal changes or shifts in political dynamics.
This move is not only due to Bolsonaro’s ongoing popularity among a significant portion of Brazilian voters but also highlights the enduring impact of right-wing populism in the country. Bolsonaro’s party has emerged as a significant opposition force against the Lula government while maintaining its power in the Brazilian Congress.
Brazilian politics is becoming increasingly polarized, marked by a clear division between Bolsonaro’s supporters and the left-leaning coalition led by Lula. Bolsonaro’s staunch conservative base consists of evangelical Christians, agricultural trade sectors, and military supporters. These groups align with his positions on issues such as gun ownership, deregulation of environmental policies, and opposition to LGBTQ+ rights.
In contrast, Lula’s base consists of labor unions, progressives, and urban poor who support policies aimed at reducing poverty, protecting the environment, and promoting social equality. The 2022 elections were characterized by the narrowest margin of victory in Brazilian history, once again highlighting the deeply divided political landscape.
Bolsonaro’s potential candidacy in 2026 should be evaluated in the broader context of the global rise of right-wing populism. Similar to Donald Trump in the United States, other populist leaders have positioned themselves as defenders of national sovereignty, traditional values, and individual freedoms against globalist and progressive forces, thereby garnering a loyal base of supporters.
Bolsonaro’s return to the political scene could revitalize the momentum of the far-right movement in Latin America, as countries like Chile and Argentina have recently witnessed a resurgence of populist leaders. This trend reflects growing disillusionment with traditional political structures and an increasing skepticism toward liberal democracy in the context of globalization.
Bolsonaro’s potential candidacy raises significant questions about the future of Brazilian democracy. During his presidency, he frequently clashed with the judiciary, media, and environmental groups, exhibiting a controversial governing approach that many critics view as authoritarian. His refusal to accept defeat in 2022, followed by criticisms of Brazil’s democratic institutions, has sparked concerns about the resilience of Brazilian democracy amid prolonged political polarization.
In conclusion, Bolsonaro’s planned candidacy for the 2026 elections underscores the enduring strength of right-wing populism in Brazil and highlights the deep political divisions within the country. As Brazil moves toward the next elections, the political future of the nation will depend on the interactions between populism, democracy, and legal institutions.
Analyzing Bolsonaro’s political trajectory is crucial for understanding both Brazil’s internal issues and the dynamics of right-wing populism in a global context. As Brazil faces complex challenges such as poverty, income inequality, and social justice, the policies implemented during Bolsonaro’s previous administration have exacerbated these issues. His potential candidacy in 2026 highlights the need to develop strategies for addressing these internal problems and sparks important discussions about the future of democratic institutions. Additionally, Bolsonaro’s brand of right-wing populism mobilizes the emotional responses of the masses, creating a political landscape that reveals a deep chasm between the public’s expectations and the current government.
The global rise of right-wing populism can be observed through Bolsonaro’s political career. Populist leaders position themselves as the “voice of the people,” creating a contrast against elitist governance while using existing social issues to their advantage. Bolsonaro’s candidacy in 2026 illustrates how right-wing populism is being revitalized in Latin America and worldwide. Populist rhetoric can remain effective not only during election cycles but also after leaders leave office. Thus, Bolsonaro’s political situation has the potential to yield significant implications for Brazil’s democratic structure as well as for the global evolution of right-wing populism. This process serves as a noteworthy example for understanding the impact of populist leaders on society and how they shape the political landscape.
[i] “Bolsonaro’s party set on running him for Brazil presidency in 2026”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolsonaros-party-set-running-him-brazil-presidency-2026-2024-10-17/ (Date of Access: 21.10.2024).
[ii] Ibid.
