On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an operation targeting Iran’s nuclear, military, and strategic assets, as well as regime change. With Iran’s response, a new war involving air strikes is underway in the Middle East. This war threatens regional security and poses major risks to global security.
When examining the effects of this war on Europe, it is clear that Europe will first and foremost face a migration crisis. Europe is already struggling to cope with the effects of the migration waves that occurred in 2015 and 2022. Moreover, a new wave of migration could begin in Europe due to the direct and indirect effects of the Israel-Iran War. If Hezbollah becomes involved in the war, refugees from southern Lebanon, Syria, which is undergoing a fragile process, Shiite regions in Iraq where Iranian influence is strong, and Palestine, which is under intense Israeli attack, may move toward Europe. This situation could increase new socio-political tensions.
As a reflection of the Israel-Iran war, it could increase polarization between Jewish and Muslim diasporas in European cities. Considering that the majority of new immigrants belong to the Shiite sect, it could also cause crises between existing Sunni immigrants and Shiite immigrants and increase radicalization. At the same time, the presence of individuals with war experience among migrants, as well as the infiltration of proxy organizations such as Hezbollah and Hashd al-Shaabi, poses a potential security threat to Europe. The fact that the basic needs of new migrants, such as housing, health, and education, will increase public spending and long-term competition in the labor market is a development that will accelerate the rise of anti-immigration rhetoric and the current rise of far-right political parties and movements across Europe. On the other hand, it is anticipated that new migrations will increase tensions between countries resisting refugee acceptance, such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, and Mediterranean countries like Italy and Greece regarding the distribution of the refugee burden.
Another possible effect of the Israel-Iran war on Europe is geoeconomic. European countries have turned to cooperation with the Gulf countries in order to reduce their dependence on Russia after the Russia-Ukraine war. In this context, liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar reaches Europe via the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, a significant portion of the world’s oil flows through this route. However, with the war, the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have become risky areas in terms of energy security. The temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is under Iranian control, or possible attacks on tankers are putting pressure on the European economy. This situation could also disrupt energy policies. A crisis in energy supply could create a basis for cooperation between Eastern European countries and Russia, as well as strengthen Russia’s influence in Europe.
All of these scenarios suggest that a war between Israel and Iran could cause numerous crises for Europe, from the economy to security. However, European countries are struggling to develop a common and comprehensive foreign policy toward this war. Germany has stated that Israel’s security is one of the fundamental elements of its foreign policy and has announced its support for Israel.[1] The policy of the United Kingdom, which has strong intelligence and military ties with Israel, is parallel to that of the United States.[2] Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has adopted a balanced policy, stating that she opposes Iran’s nuclear armament while also arguing that the parties should resolve the issue through diplomatic channels.[3] French President Emmanuel Macron, on the other hand, stated that although Israel’s security must be protected, Israel must immediately cease its attacks unrelated to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs, and emphasized that regime change in Iran through the use of force would be a strategic mistake, citing the example of Iraq. These statements, made as a result of European countries’ different foreign policy preferences and national interests, show that there is no unified European stance on the Israel-Iran war and that it is therefore difficult for Europe to position itself as an effective actor in resolving the conflict.
At this point, France’s approach must also be evaluated. France has supported a policy that defends Israel’s security while also keeping channels of dialogue open with Iran. France is concerned that rhetoric about regime change could lead to a complete closure of diplomatic channels with Iran and trigger a chain of regional conflicts. In this context, at the defense and national security council meeting held on June 18, 2025, Macron stated that he wanted to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program once and for all, but that this should be done through negotiation rather than force, and instructed Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot to launch a European initiative to end the conflict.[4]
Macron’s initiative to take a step towards European involvement in crisis management can be seen as an attempt to position France as a mediator and confidence-building actor in the Middle East, while also leading Europe’s policy in the region. It should also be noted that Macron’s statements are consistent with France’s policies in defense of Europe’s strategic autonomy. The Israel-Iran war could enable the EU to go beyond written statements and take an active role in peacebuilding, conduct mediation activities, and act as a global actor independent of the US. However, unlike France, which has adopted a balanced and diplomatic approach, Germany, another driving force behind the EU, has unconditionally supported Israel in line with the US, making it difficult for the EU to determine its strategic direction.
The approaches of Merz and Macron show that there is a divergence from the normative foreign policy line traditionally adopted by the EU. France, which emphasizes the importance of keeping diplomatic channels open and advocates for a solution under EU leadership, acts as a representative of normative Europe. As evident from Merz’s statement that “Israel is doing the dirty work for us,” Germany seeks to position Europe as a security actor and deterrent force that legitimizes military actions without direct involvement. Essentially, Macron’s and Merz’s statements, as well as the normative power-deterrent power approach that has materialized in the context of the Israel-Iran War, reflect the dilemma that will determine Europe’s international identity in the future.
In conclusion, the Israel-Iran War is a challenge that will affect both Europe’s foreign policy and its social and political structure in terms of issues such as security, economy, terrorist threats, and refugees. Therefore, Europe’s approach to this crisis will also reflect a stance that will shape the unity and global position of the EU in the coming years. In this context, both for the future of the EU and its global position, Europe must increase its cooperation with countries that prioritize international peace and stability rather than conflict, and transition to policies that will bring the parties in the Middle East to the negotiating table.
[1] Interview with Foreign Minister Wadephul for WELT TV on the current situation in the Near and Middle East, Federal Foreign Office, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2723378-2723378, (Date Accessed: 20.06.2025).
[2] Andrew Macaskill, Britain’s finance minister signals possible support for Israel in Iran conflict, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/britains-finance-minister-signals-possible-support-israel-iran-conflict-2025-06-15/, (Date Accessed: 20.06.2025).
[3] Giada Zampano, Italy’s Meloni meets Trump at G7 summit, urges need for negotiations in Israel-Iran conflict, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/italy-s-meloni-meets-trump-at-g7-summit-urges-need-for-negotiations-in-israel-iran-conflict/3601672, (Date Accessed: 20.06.2025).
[4] France planning European ‘initiative’ to end Iran-Israel conflict, says presidency, Le Monde, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/06/18/france-planning-european-initiative-to-end-iran-israel-conflict-says-macron_6742476_4.html, (Date Accessed: 20.06.2025).
