Conakry woke up to an unexpected stillness on the morning of December 28th, when the polls opened.[i] This tranquility presents the picture of a trouble-free election day. However, for those who understand West Africa’s fragile political map in recent years, the real turmoil is unfolding out of sight. Guinea is considered the major threshold of the ‘coup belt’ on the Atlantic coast. This is because this election demonstrates the form in which the tension between the ballot box and the barracks will become permanent, in other words, whether the so-called ‘transition’ process is a gateway or a lock.
Understanding Guinea requires capturing bauxite tonnages, port shipments, the pulse of Conakry’s streets, and the ‘old-versus-new’ conflict of the political class within a single frame. The country is one of the critical links in the global aluminum chain. When the flow of bauxite is disrupted on the world market, the impact surges far beyond the shores of West Africa. The massive iron ore project launched in Simandou is expanding the economic horizon. Yet, underground wealth does not necessarily alleviate the burdens of everyday life. Instead, the masses live in the grip of poverty and food insecurity. This very contradiction fuels Guinean politics: rich lands, heavy lives; grand projects, fragile institutions.
Why Does Guinea Matter?
In terms of its geographical location and economic weight, Guinea does not stand as a peripheral country in West Africa. It is one of the keystones of the regional equation, serving as the Atlantic gateway to the coast, a hinterland opening into the Sahel, and a hub for ports and minerals. Moreover, as the ‘tone of the barracks’ rises across West Africa and military regimes in the Sahel forge a new language of alliance, Guinea’s move toward the ballot box sets a precedent for the region. Will the polls announce an end to the wave of coups, or will they define a new cloak of legitimacy? The weight of this question extends far beyond the borders of Conakry.
More importantly, this ballot carries the weight of a ‘first.’ In the last five years, election timelines in countries controlled by military regimes have been either postponed or stretched through referendums. Guinea’s move to the polls may send a message to the region that ‘barracks rule can be institutionalized through the ballot box,’ or it could fuel the idea that ‘the ballot box softens oppression.’ This duality is powerful enough to shape the coming years of West Africa.
Who is Doumbouya, and How Did He Reach This Point?
At the new center of Guinean politics, Mamady Doumbouya emerged as the lead actor of the intervention that toppled Alpha Condé on September 5, 2021.[ii] His identity as the commander of elite units within the military quickly elevated him to the image of ‘the man to restore order.’ The language of legitimacy used for the coup was constructed out of the social fury generated by Condé’s bid for a third term. In 2020, the country was already simmering with political tension due to constitutional changes and heavy-handed security interventions. Doumbouya rode this wave, grounding his promise of a ‘fresh start’ in military discipline.
The promise made during the initial phase of the transition was clear: political life would be put back on track, institutions would be revitalized, and the country would return to civilian rule.[iii] However, as the timeline extended, the internal logic of the military administration began to solidify. The adoption of the new constitution through the September 2025 referendum, the extension of the presidential term to seven years, and the clearing of the path for Doumbouya’s candidacy mark the turning point of this transformation.[iv]The election has thus sharpened the question of whether this so-called ‘return’ will serve as an inauguration ceremony or a consolidation of power.
Doumbouya’s style is driven by ‘speed’ and ‘discipline.’ On one hand, this approach reinforces the claim of a revitalized state apparatus. On the other hand, it generates a security reflex that narrows the breathing space for the opposition. Limited political activity during the campaign period, the restriction of protest areas, debates over media censorship, and allegations of pressure on opposition actors have all heightened the fragility of the election climate. Recent moves, such as the pardon of a former military figure known for his involvement in the 2009 stadium massacre case, have further fueled the debate over ‘reason of state.’ At this point, the question remains: will justice be accelerated, will reconciliation take precedence, or will the final reckoning be postponed?
The Scene at the Ballot Box: Competition or Endorsement?
The election on December 28th was framed as a ‘return to constitutional order,’ serving as the first presidential election in the post-2021 era.[v] It is reported that approximately 6.7 million registered voters are on the electoral rolls. The polls opened in the morning and closed in the evening. Alongside Doumbouya, eight other names appear on the list of candidates. Indeed, some prominent opposition figures remain in exile, certain actors have been pushed out of the political arena, various candidates have been disqualified, and numerous parties have been dissolved. The boycott calls from the opposition cast a thick shadow over the election’s legitimacy.
The day itself brings two different scenes into a single frame: on one hand, the start of the counting process accompanied by remarks that ‘no major incidents occurred’; on the other, a sense of low turnout in Conakry and the prevailing sentiment that ‘the outcome is already known’. Provisional results are expected to be announced within two to three days. This window is decisive for political psychology because the management of expectations determines the pulse of the streets in the post-election period. Even if voters did not head to the polls, the language of street politics can still shift.
What Underpins Doumbouya’s Apparent Strength?
The primary reason Doumbouya appears as the favorite is his consolidated control over the state apparatus. However, the matter is not limited to this alone. There is a widespread sense of fatigue toward the old political class in Guinea. The prominence of the young population further sharpens this sentiment. Doumbouya has used major infrastructure projects, road and energy investments, and urban redevelopment as a showcase. This creates a perception of ‘at least there is momentum,’ particularly among the unemployed youth.
The second element is the new narrative built upon resource politics. The operationalization of Simandou has become a symbol of the nation’s insistence on ‘taking its rightful cut’. Measures taken throughout the year, including the revocation of licenses, renegotiation of contracts, and the handover of assets to state firms, have bolstered the narrative of ‘national interest,’ resonating strongly with public opinion. This line of action resonates with the emphasis on sovereignty seen in military governments across the Sahel. Thus, Doumbouya is not just running as a candidate; he is putting his ‘founder-leader’ narrative to the test.
Regional and Foreign Policy Dimensions: The Sahelian Wave and the Geopolitics of Mining
The Guinean election occupies a distinct place within the wave of coups in West Africa. Military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have experienced breakups with regional institutions and established a new language of security and alliance. Guinea, on the other hand, has preferred to remain within the regional framework, yet ‘khaki tones’ have predominated in its domestic politics. This situation presents a test for regional organizations: principled pressure or pragmatic acceptance? The political outcome emerging from Conakry could make the concept of ‘power consolidated through the ballot’ attractive to military governments in the Sahel. For regimes across the Sahelian belt, it may serve to legitimize the trend of ‘contraction for security reasons’.
The defining theme on the foreign policy front is the geopolitics of mining. Bauxite procurement is a critical link in the global aluminum chain. The Simandou project, meanwhile, progresses through a model dominated by Chinese capital. Consequently, the power dynamics in Conakry create a resonance that stretches from Beijing to the Gulf, and from European ports to global commodity markets. This resonance redefines the concept of stability: will stability be measured by the competitiveness of the ballot box, or by the steady flow of minerals?
What is the trajectory?
A victory for Doumbouya is discussed as a strong probability. Such an outcome would mean that the transition period continues under a civilian heading, yet the weight of the security apparatus in politics will likely be maintained. At this point, two scenarios stand out.
In the first scenario, expectation management, fueled by economic liberalization and massive mining revenues, becomes critical. If the promise of employment generated by Simandou’s railway and port investments is fulfilled, an ‘economy of consent’ could be established in the short term. However, if poverty and food insecurity continue to squeeze the masses, the showcase could quickly fade. In that case, the calm observed today may evolve into a much harsher social tension.
In the second scenario, the narrowing of the political space, the fragmentation of the opposition, and restrictions on the media could lead to the long-term weakening of institutions. If the election ceases to be an introductory threshold and turns into a closing door, the discourse of ‘normalization’ may serve only to perpetuate authority. Furthermore, the overshadowing of the past promise ‘not to run for office’ could deepen a crisis of trust in the new era.
The wind blows lightly in Conakry today. However, in West Africa, the direction of the wind is rarely determined by the calm of an election day in a single city; it is measured on the mining tracks, in the corridors of the barracks, in the patience of the youth, and by the rhythm of the regional wave. Guinea’s ballot indicates which of these four rhythms will accelerate.
[i] “Guinea votes in presidential election expected to cement Doumbouya’s rule”, Reuters, 28 December 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-votes-presidential-election-expected-cement-doumbouyas-rule-2025-12-28/, (Accessed: December 28, 2025).
[ii] “Polls open in Guinea with junta leader favoured to win first presidential vote since 2021 coup”, Africanews, 28 December 2025. https://www.africanews.com/2025/12/28/polls-open-in-guinea-with-junta-leader-favoured-to-win-first-presidential-vote-since-2021-/, (Accessed: December 28, 2025).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
[v] “Guinée : élection présidentielle, quatre ans après le coup d’État, Mamady Doumbouya grand favori, opposition écartée”, France 24, 28 December 2025. https://www.france24.com/fr/afrique/20251228-guinee-élection-présidentielle-coup-état-mamady-doumbouya-junte-opposition, (Accessed: December 28, 2025).
