Russia has made a statement on supporting China since the first days of the United States House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and stated that the United States is pursuing provocation. On this issue, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russa said that “Lavrov flies to Myanmar, but unlike Pelosi, it is not for provocation to Asia; it is for cooperation.”[1] Speaking at the Moscow Security Conference about 15 days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin described Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a “fully planned provocation.”
Referring to Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US Security Agreement (AUKUS), Putin stated that the West is trying to build a bloc resembling to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Asia-Pacific region.[2] In general, Putin said that the US is trying to escalate tensions in Asia by visiting Taiwan and the AUKUS Pact. Supporting China’s sovereignty anonymously, Putin said, “Pelosi’s visit is a brazen showing of disrespect for the sovereignty of others.”[3] Beijing, on the other hand, conveyed its satisfaction to these statements to the Russian leader.[4]
After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the rapprochement-solidarity between China and Russia has increased even more. The Beijing administration announced that the People’s Liberation Army of China will participate in the “Vostok” military exercises to be held in Russia between August 30 and September 5, 2022.[5] On this issue, Spokesperson for the United States Department of State Ned Price said that Washington is uncomfortable with the “developing relationship in the field of security” between Moscow and Beijing.[6] As it can be understood, Russia makes a statement of support to China in the Taiwan issue, thus ensuring close relations of Beijing with Russia.
In fact, China’s participation in exercises in Russia is not new. China has participated in such exercises of Russia before. For example, in 2021, the two countries held a joint military exercise called “Sibu Cooperation-2021”, in which more than 10,000 soldiers participated in the Ningxia region. Minister of Defense of Russia Sergey Shoigu praised China’s achievements in the exercises and said that this cooperation could be further developed.[7]
In the following months, Russian and Chinese warships conducted their first joint patrols in the Pacific and conducted joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan. In May 2022, Russian and Chinese fighter jets conducted joint air exercises in the Sea of Japan while the US President Joe Biden has been in Tokyo for Quadruple Security Dialogue (QUAD) Summit. However, after the Taiwan Crisis, China has become more determined to support Russia.
According to some experts, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has shown that the United States can confront both Russia and China at the same time.[8] According to this idea, the US does not need to step back from its fight with Russia to be counter against China. Here, the US, acting with the logic of being a “superpower”, challenges and struggles with both of them. This situation clearly demonstrates the importance of Russia and China showing more cooperation and solidarity. If these two actors stay away from each other, there is no way they can defeat the US.
For all these reasons, China is sending troops and equipment to the “Vostok-2022” military exercises in Russia. With this exercise, Russia wishes to show that it can provide the military security of the eastern region and to intimidate the United States. In this context, Moscow shows that it is still strong on its eastern borders and can support Beijing in the event of a war over Taiwan. In other words, Moscow is giving the message that it can fight both in the West and in the East at the same time. In fact, this is exactly what the US did. In other words, both Russia and the US are giving signals that they can fight on two different fronts in the same month. China, on the other hand, remains weak in its fight against the US. That’s why it needs Moscow’s support.
According to some experts from the US, China may see Russia’s war in Ukraine as an opportunity and act against it in Siberia.[9] In this scenario, Russia will not stand against China in a possible military stalemate. For example, US military expert John Callahan made the following comment on the subject:[10]
“Let’s say the Chinese invaded Siberia, in which case the Russians are very likely to use their nuclear weapons. Because they will have to leave Ukraine completely and take their heavy weapons to the other side of the world to fight the Chinese.”
The purpose of these words is to create a perception that there is a problem-conflict in Russia-China relations. In particular, the British media wants to create a perception that there is a disagreement between Moscow and Beijing and to set the two against each other. In the past, China has faced Russia due to border disputes. The US and the UK want to rekindle “these frozen crises and issues” between the two countries. The goal here is to establish a similarity between the China-India border disputes between Russia and China. Undoubtedly, dividing Russia and China will allow the US to act more comfortably in the Indo-Pacific.
Effects of Taiwan Crisis on China-Russia Geopolitical Rivalry
Russia’s new Naval Doctrine, published on July 31, 2022, can be interpreted as a reflection of Moscow’s growing rivalry with its maritime neighbors, including Beijing. It is believed that Russia’s main goal is to become a global naval power and maintain this status quo. Likewise, China has significant global maritime ambitions, including establishing overseas bases. According to US Expert Troy J. Bouffard, China is Russia’s naval rival rather than its naval ally. Therefore, although Russia may seem like a friend, it is a kind of enemy.[11]
Russia plans to increase its investments in the exclusive economic zones of Indonesia and Vietnam in the South China Sea.[12] Accordingly, the Russian state-owned energy company “Ross Oil Company” invests in the oil and gas exploration activities of the two countries in the region. Some of these energy fields are also located within the “Nine-Dash Line” drawn by China. This causes dissatisfaction with China.
In short, Russia may not be a friend of China but a rival in the Indo-Pacific. Two main theses emerge here. First, Russia is invited by China to the Indo-Pacific to limit or balance the US. According to the second, more accepted approach, Moscow acts as a third power in the region after Washington and Beijing. In other words, Russia does not open to the Indo-Pacific with supporting China, Russia opens to it as a rival to it. This last view is generally made by Russian analysts.
As it is known, Moscow has been waiting for support from Beijing regarding the Ukraine and Crimea issue for a long time. Both Russia and China are uncomfortable with each other in this sense, as they want to maintain their position as the dominant actor in their near abroad. For example, China is concerned about Russia’s opening to Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and India. Because, Moscow recently has been developing close relations with Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, which are seen as China’s “backyard”.[13] Russia, which opened to Indonesia after Vietnam, has proven that it wants to be a “third power” in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia with this last step.
As a matter of fact, Russia’s Pacific Fleet warships also visited the Philippines, which is China’s enemy here. In addition, Russia’s first military naval exercise with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was seen as a dangerous rapprochement by both Washington and Beijing.
Another issue that China approaches from a competitive point of view is Russia’s development of military and defense industry cooperation with the countries of the region. Moscow’s biggest arms customers in the region are Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, Laos, and Sri Lanka, as well as India.[14] In this sense, Moscow is the largest arms supplier, with sales of $10.7 billion to Southeast Asian countries in the last 20 years. After Russia there are the US and France.
Just as China is an economic power for the Indo-Pacific countries, Russia is a strategic military power for the regional states. Moreover, Moscow is trying to establish an influence in world politics through the export of defense industry products. Some of these items, such as nuclear submarine technology, give Russia an advantage. Moscow does not share this technology with either India or China.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is expected to reinforce Chinese-Russian cooperation. But at the same time, the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries will continue. Western powers are striving to deepen this “covert rivalry.” For example, the British newspaper Express claimed that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ignored his Russian counterpart by not attending the gala dinner of the ASEAN meeting in Cambodia during the tensions in Taiwan.[15] However, Wang Yi held bilateral meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov within the framework of this summit. In fact, the actors came together at the SCO meeting held in Uzbekistan on July 29-30, 2022, shortly before the ASEAN meeting.
As a result, it would be a misinterpretation to talk about the existence of a major conflict between Russia and China, as claimed by the West. However, it cannot be said that there is no disagreement in the relations between the parties. Because of that, there are some questions to think about. In this context, the following sequence will create a logical perspective: How close could the Taiwan Crisis bring China to Russia, how much does Beijing trust Moscow, does China see Russia as a “threat” in the Indo-Pacific; or it does see Russia as “allies”, does the rivalry between the two countries in Central Asia turn into a “cooperation” or “conflict”?
[1] “Rusya’dan ABD’ye ‘Tayvan’ göndermesi: Lavrov Myanmar’a uçuyor ama…”, Haber Global, https://haberglobal.com.tr/dunya/rusyadan-abdye-tayvan-gondermesi-lavrov-myanmara-ucuyor-ama-192377, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[2] Putin Accuses U.S. of Fanning Asia Tension With Taiwan Visit, AUKUS Pact”, US News, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-16/putin-western-countries-want-to-extend-nato-like-system-to-the-asia-pacific-region, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[3] “China highly appreciates Putin’s criticism of Pelosi’s provocative Taiwan visit”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273227.shtml, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[4] Ibid.
[5] “China to send troops to Russia for ‘Vostok’ exercise”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-military-will-send-troops-russia-joint-exercise-2022-08-17/, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[6] “China, Russia too close for comfort after Putin slams Pelosi Taiwan trip, US says”, NY Post, https://nypost.com/2022/08/17/china-russia-concern-us-after-putin-slams-pelosi-taiwan-trip/, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[7] “As Taiwan stages military show, China gears up for exercises with Russia”, ABC, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-18/taiwan-and-china-hold-opposing-military-drills-amid-tensions/101344710, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[8] “The skeptics are wrong: The U.S. can confront both China and Russia”, Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/04/america-confronts-russia-china-pelosi/, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[9] “Russia vs China: Putin ‘would not stand chance’ against Xi in potential military standoff”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1657052/putin-news-russia-china-putin-xi-nuclear-weapons-russia-latest-news-spt, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[10] Ibid.
[11] “Alaska Fairbanks Üniversitesi Arktik Güvenliği ve Dayanışma Merkezi (CASR) Direktörü Troy J. Bouffard: ‘Rusya, Karadeniz’deki Saldırganlığını Arttıracaktır.’”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/alaska-fairbanks-universitesi-arktik-guvenligi-ve-dayanisma-merkezi-casr-direktoru-troy-j-bouffard-rusya-karadenizdeki-saldirganligini-arttiracaktir/, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[12] “Moskova, Pekin ve Vietnam’a meydan okumaya devam ettikten sonra, Rusya Endonezya’nın Güney Çin Denizi kaynaklarını sömürmesine yardım edecek”, VOA Chinese, https://www.voachinese.com/a/Russia-challenges-China-s-interests-in-south-china-sea-20211206/6341334.html, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[13] “Moscow tries to counterbalance Chinese influence in Laos”, Asia News, https://bit.ly/3wfDvx0, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.12.2021); “Russia moves with a new swagger in South-East Asia”, Economist, https://econ.st/3wf62CG, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[14] “2021/33 ‘Russia’s Defence Diplomacy in Southeast Asia: A Tenuous Lead in Arms Sales but Lagging in Other Areas’ by Ian Storey”, İSEAS, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2021-33-russias-defence-diplomacy-in-southeast-asia-a-tenuous-lead-in-arms-sales-but-lagging-in-other-areas-by-ian-storey/, (Date of Accession: 18.08.2022).
[15] “China snubs Russia: Minister WALKS OUT of meeting as fury erupts over Taiwan threats”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1650609/china-snubs-russia-minister-Wang-Yi-walks-out-ASEAN-gala-dinner-lavrov-blinken, (Date of Accession: 19.08.2022).
