With the Russia-Ukraine War, one of the most talked about issues in international politics and economy has been energy. Because Russia’s use of energy as a trump card against Europe, the world’s dependence on fossil resources, and the direct and indirect effects of energy prices on the world economy are the main factors behind this. In this process, both Russia, which was a party to the war, and the United States of America (USA), Europe and China, which were affected by the war at various levels, increased their contacts with various countries that have energy resources.
In the context of these developments, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the eastern side of the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan on the western side come to the fore among the countries contacted with. The oil, natural gas and coal resources owned by the three states have been an attractive factor especially for Western actors. In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War, Western states increased their contacts with the countries in question. However, this situation is not limited to energy only. Especially European states have intensified their relations with these countries on the basis of the Middle Corridor in order to reach from the Caucasus to Central Asia and then to China.
On the other hand, China and Russia accelerated their policies towards Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The reason for this is that as a result of Moscow’s concentration on the western borders due to the war, Western actors have the opportunity to increase their activities in Central Asia.
In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a gas union. Although it is said that the union is intended for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, it can be thought that after a while it will include Turkmenistan, the world’s fourth largest gas reserve, and then Azerbaijan. On the other hand, China has intensified its energy-based relations with Central Asian states. In this process, especially the contacts and high-level visits with Turkmenistan are important.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which have rich energy deposits in the geographies in question, have started to develop various policies against the policies followed by regional and global actors regarding energy resources in Central Asia and the Caucasus. In this context, the geopolitical importance of the countries at the point of the route where the energy will be exported has greatly increased. In short, the three countries have succeeded in bringing together their energy resources and geopolitical importance within the framework of a win-win approach.
Turkmenistan is in an extremely critical position in the process of exporting energy resources from Kazakhstan to Pakistan and India. However, Kazakhstan’s plan to export energy to South Asia within the scope of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Natural Gas Pipeline Project will increase Turkmenistan’s geopolitical gains.[1] In addition, the energy factor, which has an increasing role in Turkmenistan’s relations with China, also increases the geopolitical importance of Kazakhstan. In addition to this, Azerbaijan is in a strategic position for Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to reach Europe.
It is seen that there is a progress towards Europe in the energy-based relations established between the parties. As it will be remembered, a five-year agreement was signed between Kazakhstan’s national oil and gas company KazMunayGas (KMG) and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR in November 2022 to transport 1.5 million tons of oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline. The Astana administration wants to increase the oil supply to 6-6.5 million tons through the said line.[2] Within the scope of the agreement, KMG started to ship 80 thousand tons of oil to Romania via Ceyhan Port on April 22, 2023.[3]
The Trans-Caspian Pipeline Project constitutes the main center of the energy topic between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Because the project in question will allow Turkmenistan’s “blue” fuel to be exported to Europe. For this purpose, the Ashgabat administration built a 700 km pipeline from Galkyns, where there are rich natural gas deposits, to the Caspian Sea coast in 2015. As a matter of fact, the Ashgabat administration plans to export approximately 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Europe. Although Russia and Iran oppose the project in question, it is possible to say that the Aktau Agreement, which determined the legal status of the Caspian Sea on 12 August 2018, paved the way for this.[4] Various agreements between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan also show that the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, supported by Europe, will be implemented in a short time.
As a result, the changes in global geopolitics cause the ties between various countries to break; it also serves to strengthen relations between some countries. In particular, the common wealth and interests of states are the factors that are effective in this process. Even more important is their geopolitical position. In this context, with the increasing energy need in the world, relations based on the win-win approach on the Astana-Ashgabat-Baku line have been strengthened. The meeting of energy with geopolitics in interstate relations enables countries to have an unhindered route in the process of exporting their resources and to achieve economic gain while exporting the resources of other countries. The clearest example of this determination is the relations between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
[1] “Pakistan’s Gwadar Port is Ready to Export Kazakh Products to Persian Gulf Countries”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2022/11/readypakistans-gwadar-port-is-to-export-kazakh-products-to-persian-gulf-countries/, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
[2] “Kazakhstan to Transport 1.5 Million Tons of Oil Via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2022/11/kazakhstan-to-transport-1-5-million-tons-of-oil-via-baku-tbilisi-ceyhan-pipeline/, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
[3] Aiman Nakispekova, “Kazakhstan Ships 80,000 Tons of Oil Through Ceyhan to Romania”, The Astana Times, https://astanatimes.com/2023/04/kazakhstan-ships-80000-tons-of-oil-through-ceyhan-to-romania/, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
[4] Eziz Boyarov, “Turkmenistan Promotes Its Gas to South Asia and Europe-President”, DARYO, https://daryo.uz/en/2023/04/26/turkmenistan-promotes-its-gas-to-south-asia-and-europe-president, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023); “TAPI Gas Pipeline Being Built at Accelerated Pace-Turkmen President”, Interfax, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/90016/, (Date of Accession: 26.04.2023).
