In the international system, geopolitical competition is conducted not only on military fronts but also through economic sanctions, energy policies, strategic diplomacy, and digital information wars. The Russia-Ukraine War, which began in 2022, by 2025 had become not merely a conflict confined to Eastern Europe but the focal point of a multi-layered and structural confrontation between the Western alliance and Moscow. In this process, the European Union (EU) has developed a systematic mechanism of pressure not only against Russia’s military capacity but also against the oligarchic capital system that shapes Moscow’s economic, political, and foreign policy tools.
This structure, which can be described as “Russian Oligarchism”, has been perceived by EU decision-makers as an element that provides both the financial and strategic foundation of the war. Therefore, the 17th sanctions package, approved on 20 May 2025, has been interpreted not merely as an economic restriction but also as a direct struggle declared against Russia’s extra-state power structure. These sanctions have emerged as the expression of a multi-layered strategy aimed at isolating elite actors supported by Moscow from the international system and at putting pressure on Russia’s economic nerve centers, extending across a broad spectrum from energy transportation to the defense industry, financial intermediaries to cultural pillaging.
One of the most notable steps in the sanctions package has been the move against the “shadow fleet” operating under third-country flags to circumvent sanctions. With 189 ships blacklisted, a network of 342 vessels was targeted; the companies insuring and providing logistical services to these ships were also subjected to asset freezes and prohibitions on fund transfers. Particularly, the inclusion of companies based in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong in this list has demonstrated that Europe is targeting not only Russia but also the actors providing it with indirect financial and logistical support. With this strategic move, it was announced in March 2025 that Russia’s energy revenues had decreased by 20.3% compared to 2022 and by 13.7% compared to 2023.[i]
These economic measures constitute only the initial stage of the sanctions package. The EU Council of Foreign Ministers, within the framework of this package, targeted 17 individuals and 58 entities, approving the broadest individual and institutional sanctions list created to date. Included under the sanctions are Sergey Kogogin, President of “Kamaz”; defense industry representatives such as the heads of Lobaev Arms, Stratim, and Elektron; the pro-Moscow Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk; Moldovan-origin businesspeople; and some Israeli settlers living in the occupied Palestinian territories. At the institutional level, structures forming Russia’s military-technological infrastructure –such as Surgutneftegaz, Rostec, Geoskan, Almaz-Antey, Tekhnodinamika, and Aerofregat– have been targeted. Additionally, sanctions have been applied to the 27th and 33rd research institutes affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense, as well as to the units for radiological, chemical, and biological protection.[ii]
Despite this strategic pressure from the EU, the Moscow Stock Exchange has given only a limited short-term response to these decisions. The Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) has decreased by 1.14 to 1.31 percent, and the RTS Index has shown a similar level of decline. Conversely, the appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the ruble has demonstrated that Russia is seeking short-term equilibrium by turning to Asia-centered financial alternatives in response to the sanctions. This limited market reaction has revealed that Moscow is attempting to offset the impact of Western sanctions outside the financial system.[iii] However, this situation also points to the possibility that the structural effects could lead to deeper and irreversible consequences in the medium and long term.
The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, has stated, “While Putin continues to pretend to be interested in peace, the EU will continue to ramp up sanctions; as long as this illegal and savage war continues, our responses will become increasingly harsh”. These words have demonstrated not only that diplomatic patience is running out but also that the strategic objective is now openly to dismantle “the oligarchic structures that financially sustain the Russian war machine”.
The United States (US) approach at this point has been more cautious and has followed a different trajectory. During a phone call between Putin and Trump on 19 May 2025, which lasted over two hours, US President Trump declared that instead of playing the sanctions card, he had welcomed Russia’s supposed willingness for peace. While Putin indicated that he was prepared to work on a direct peace agreement with Ukraine, Trump described the conversation as “excellent”. However, these statements have been met with concern in European capitals, particularly by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and European Commission President von der Leyen. Meloni’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire and Merz’s call for the establishment of a multilateral negotiating table were rejected by Trump; the US President stated that they would not be parties to these negotiations and that they were waiting for Russia to prepare an “acceptable offer”.[iv]
The Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Mark Rutte, has assessed the 19 May 2025 Putin-Trump meeting as a positive diplomatic step and has expressed satisfaction that the US was taking the lead in this process. However, Rutte left unanswered the questions regarding why Trump did not increase the pressure on Russia, which has sparked a serious debate in European public opinion about whether transatlantic unity is weakening.[v] In this context, statements by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova have shown that Moscow perceives Western calls for a ceasefire as “ultimatums under the guise of peace”. Zakharova argued that the 30-day temporary ceasefire proposal by Zelensky and European leaders was designed as a tool to exert pressure against Russia’s sovereign stance and emphasized that Moscow would not submit to such demands.[vi] The founder of the Stratim Design Bureau, which has been targeted by EU sanctions, has also made a symbolic response to this pressure by declaring, “I serve Russia”, a phrase expressing military loyalty.[vii] This reaction has underscored that the economic sanctions have also turned into a struggle of identities.
On the other hand, the information wars unfolding in the digital domain also constitute a new dimension of the EU-Russia tension. The statements made by Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, targeting French intelligence, have represented not merely an individual but a systemic accusation of media interference. Durov has claimed that French officials are using pretexts such as terrorism or child abuse to actually suppress conservative and likely pro-Russian voices in Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine. Although the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs has dismissed these allegations as “baseless”, the statement has been supported by Elon Musk and Maria Zakharova, thereby making the divisions within the West visible.[viii] Amid all these discussions, it is noteworthy that Zakharova has characterized the European Commission’s plan to abandon Russian energy by 2027 as “economic suicide”. Zakharova has argued that the EU has spent 245 billion euros in this process, yet this spending has not gone towards a sustainable energy infrastructure but merely towards temporary supply diversity. The 6% decline in industrial production and the relocation of European companies’ manufacturing to foreign countries due to energy costs have reinforced Zakharova’s claim that “Europe is shooting itself in the foot”.[ix]
In light of current developments, the limited short-term impact of the EU’s comprehensive sanctions against “Russian oligarchism” on Moscow points to an attempt to narrow Russia’s maneuvering space in the international financial and industrial system in the medium term. In this context, a foreseeable scenario is that Moscow will deepen its energy and technology partnerships with China, India, Iran, and the Gulf countries; while the capital groups excluded from the Western system will increasingly institutionalize themselves within Eurasian-centered blocs. Defense industry firms targeted by EU sanctions may also become more aggressive in directing their activities towards conflict zones in Central Asia and Africa and may be able to sustain revenue streams through intermediary mechanisms such as the “shadow fleet”. However, this situation will lead to a greater tendency for the Russian economy to move towards autarky; and in the long term, this trend may evolve into a structural bloc formation that permanently detaches Russia from the West.
Meanwhile, the cautious diplomatic stance adopted by the United States as of 2025 has seriously disrupted the synchronization of crisis management within the transatlantic alliance. US President Trump’s prioritization of negotiations over sanctions and his direct engagement with Putin have created a potential rift that could undermine the EU’s “maximum pressure” strategy. One possible scenario arising from this situation is the acceleration of Europe’s search for a more autonomous and collective approach in the realms of security and foreign policy. Key actors such as Germany, France, and Italy may be expected to develop new security formats or sanctions regimes independent of the US. Although political cohesion within NATO is anticipated to persist, it is also foreseen that there will be delays in decision-making processes and policy misalignments at the operational level. At the same time, Russia is expected to intensify its diplomatic maneuvers aimed at politically fragmenting the EU and to further weaken Eastern European countries through its energy policies.
In conclusion, as of 2025, the EU-Russia tension has transformed not only into a diplomatic and economic confrontation but into a multidimensional conflict arena shaped by energy security, strategic sanctions, and information wars. The EU’s 17th sanctions package has aimed to establish a strategic isolation mechanism against Russia, targeting not only state institutions but also the oligarchic structures that feed the war economy and foreign policy capacity of Moscow. However, the alternative financial and trade relationships that Moscow has developed with China, Iran, and the Gulf countries are aimed at balancing the effects of this pressure. The US’s distanced approach to sanctions has weakened transatlantic unity and has pushed Europe towards seeking a more independent and collective security architecture.
[i] “Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine: EU Agrees 17th Package of Sanctions”, European Council, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/05/20/russia-s-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-agrees-17th-package-of-sanctions, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[ii] “Chto İzvestno o 17-m Pakete Sanktsiy YES Protiv Rossii”, TASS, https://tass.ru/ekonomika/23992319, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[iii] “Rossiyskiy Rynok Aktsiy Prakticheski ne Otreagiroval na Novyye Sanktsii YES”, TASS, https://tass.ru/ekonomika/23991391, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[iv] Barak Ravid, “Two-Hour Trump-Putin Call Ends Without Ceasefire”, Axios, https://www.axios.com/2025/05/19/trump-putin-call-ceasefire-agreement, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[v] “NATO Chief Welcomes Putin-Trump Call as ‘Good Sign’”, News.Az, https://news.az/news/nato-chief-welcomes-putin-trump-call-as-good-sign, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[vi] “Zakharova Zayavila, Chto Rossiya Nikogda ne Reagiruyet na Ultimatumy”, TASS, https://tass.ru/politika/23994407, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[vii] “Osnovatel KB ‘Stratim’ Prokommentiroval Sanktsii YES”, TASS, https://tass.ru/politika/23993945, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[viii] Sandu Unguryany, “Durov Obvinil Frantsiyu v Popytke Povliyat na Moldovu – Parizh Otverg, Zakharova i Mask Podderzhali”, Nokta, https://nokta.md/durov-obvinil-frantsiju-v-popytke-povliyat-na-moldovu-parizh-otverg-zaharova-i-mask-podderzhali, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
[ix] “Zakharova: Yevropa Prodolzhayet ‘Yest Kaktus’, Otkazyvayas ot Energonositeley Rossii”, TASS, https://tass.ru/politika/23994465, (Access Date: 20.05.2025).
