The competition among the dominant actors in the international system is accelerating every day and progressing towards an uncertain future. Particularly in the global conjuncture where the United States (USA) and China play a dominant role, many states are trying to secure their interests. One of the states that appears in this context is France. Paris, while playing a significant role in Europe, is also considered an important actor in global competition through the French Overseas Territories Community. The interest of the Macron administration in the Asia-Pacific has recently increased, both due to the effect of the China-USA rivalry on the region’s status quo and developments in domestic politics.
France’s recent increased interest in the Asia-Pacific is a subject that needs to be addressed in terms of both foreign and domestic policy. If examined from a domestic policy perspective, recent protests in France have made a lot of noise and have led to a connection between immigration and crime, leading to a rise in right-wing views in the country. Also, the insistence on increasing the retirement age has weakened the government. Considering that Macron is entering the last year of his term, it is likely that he will make efforts to increase his legitimacy. In this context, it is possible to say that he has made an effort to change the country’s agenda and draw an image aimed at protecting national interests and the unity of the country to alleviate the pressure on him.
The Asia-Pacific is very important for these interests. Indeed, France obtains 90% of its exclusive economic zone from its overseas territories. Therefore, risks to French sovereignty in the French Overseas Territories Community must be prevented. Currently, France’s total foreign financial liabilities are greater than its total foreign financial assets, resulting in a negative international investment position. It can be argued that the continuation of the economic growth claimed by Macron will increase France’s efforts to use its economic rights in the Asia-Pacific to close this gap and increase the return on international assets. The security of French presence in the region is significant at this point.
If we need to examine the interest in Asia-Pacific from a foreign policy perspective, France has the world’s second-largest maritime area. This is due to the French Overseas Territories Community. Therefore, Paris’s control and legitimacy over these regions are vital. The increasing USA-China rivalry in the Asia-Pacific not jeopardizing French interests can be seen as the primary goal of the Macron administration. Indeed, Paris’s main aim is to avoid the negative impacts of this rivalry and make moves in line with its interests. The point to be emphasized here is that France wants to implement a foreign policy aimed at strengthening its position in the region rather than joining the Beijing-Washington race.
Considering France’s extensive network in the region, it is likely to avoid bold steps. At this point, it should be stated that Paris has remained in the background of the competition between the two main actors. The Macron administration is concerned about the USA’s regional cooperation initiatives separate from France and China’s efforts to increase its military presence, and also wants to strengthen its resistance against developments outside its control. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles confirming that missiles will be produced for the USA,[1] considering New Caledonia’s geopolitical position, proves Paris’s concerns.
In conclusion, France wants to protect its overseas territories such as La Reunion, New Caledonia, and French Polynesia, and its influence in the region. Therefore, it aims to deepen its relations in the geography in question. In this context, it can be argued that Paris is concerned about China’s rise. Indeed, the emergence of a new imperialism in the region is directing France towards a status quo foreign policy. China, claiming rights over Vietnam and Taiwan and providing military training in the Paracel Islands,[2] shows its efforts to increase its military presence in the region. The underlying reason for this effort is that the region is seen as vital for China’s national security. These efforts, leading to the escalation of crises, are pushing France to protect its presence in the region. Macron’s diplomatic tour in the area,[3] seen as the main geopolitical battlefield between the two actors, shows that he will not remain a spectator in the surrounding power struggle.
It can be argued that the main concern of the Macron administration is China. Indeed, Beijing’s rising economy has also been reflected in trade with France. France has a serious trade deficit against China. According to Chinese Deputy Prime Minister He Lifeng, Beijing wants to deepen cooperation with Paris and hopes that France will be beneficial in stabilizing EU-China relations.[4] China has opened up to the world with the Belt and Road Initiative and has turned its economic rise to its advantage in diplomacy. In this context, it wants to strengthen its relations with the EU. However, to prevent China’s economic superiority from turning into political superiority against France, Paris is likely to try to reduce its dependence on China and increase the efficiency of its exclusive economic zones. In addition to this, France is avoiding a hostile attitude in its relations with China and is striving to eliminate the trade imbalance between them. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire’s statement that France wants not to “separate” from the world’s second-largest economy, China, but to have better access to the Chinese market and a more “balanced” trade relationship after meeting with Chinese officials at the China-France Economic and Financial Dialogue,[5] proves Paris’s attitude.
When looking at Paris’s strategy, India, being a strong balancer against China, is an attraction center for France’s strategy in the region. Ultimately, New Delhi-Paris relations are showing an increasing momentum. What needs to be emphasized here is India’s role. India is seen as a balancing weight against China’s rising power. Indeed, the strategic moves of the Modi administration are perceived as a significant factor in Beijing’s steps in the region. Fundamentally, India’s growing geopolitical importance every day has caused it to be seen as a natural partner by other actors who want to gain superiority against China. In this context, France has entered into an effort to deepen relations with India. The fact that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the guest of honor and deemed worthy of an award at the “Bastille Day” military parade,[6] is evidence of this effort.
In conclusion, the course of France-India relations is quite positive. Particularly, New Delhi’s discomfort with Beijing’s increasing influence in the region and its efforts to strengthen its role in the international system are causing Paris to approach with optimism. It can be argued that the Modi administration’s attitude towards increasing military power has contributed to cooperation between the two actors. Especially, the desire to develop the defense industry is decisive in its approach to France. Although their views on the Ukraine War may be different, the preliminary agreement for the same model of 26 fighter jets and 3 submarines, in addition to the previous agreement for 36 Rafale fighter jets and 6 Scorpene submarines,[7] can be presented as an example of this situation. This relationship, based fundamentally on defense cooperation, is also paving the way for partnership in various matters.
In conclusion, one of the geographies where global competition is shaping is the Asia Pacific. Paris does not want to be adversely affected by the power struggle in the region. Indeed, France has the world’s second-largest maritime area due to the Overseas Territories Community. China’s and the USA’s increasing military presence in the mentioned region is causing France to worry about security. The Macron administration is turning to its overseas territories to both regain the support it lost due to tensions in the country by emphasizing national interests and to reduce its dependency on China’s economic superiority.
There must be no threat for the policies to be implemented in the overseas territories of the country that gives an international investment position deficit. The Paris administration, wanting to guarantee its own interests, is turning to collaborate with India to increase its political influence in the region. New Delhi’s interest in defense is ensuring Paris to approach positively. Based on all these, it can be argued that Paris-New Delhi relations will strengthen in the coming period.
[1] “Австралија ќе произведува ракети за САД.”, Slobodenpecat, https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/avstralija-kje-proizveduva-raketi-za-sad/, (Date of Accession: 29.07.2023).
[2] ‘‘China to Conduct Military Training in Disputed Part Of South China Sea.’’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-conduct-military-training-disputed-part-south-china-sea-2023-07-28/, (Date of Accession: 28.07.2023).
[3] ‘‘Macron Promotes French Interests On A Trip To South Pacific Where US-China Rivalry Is Intensifying’’, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/france-south-pacific-us-china-f7b0d5c0d7fb994ce6bd826f4155df2c, (Date of Accession: 24.07.2023).
[4] ‘‘China Hopes France Can Help Take Heat Out Of Relations With EU.’’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hopes-france-can-help-take-heat-out-relations-with-eu-2023-07-29/, (Date of Accession: 29.07.2023).
[5] ‘‘Le Maire Says France Wants Better China Access, Not Decoupling.’’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/le-maire-says-france-wants-better-china-market-access-2023-07-30/, (Date of Accession: 30.07.2023).
[6] ‘‘France Fetes India’s Modi At Bastille Day Celebration’’, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/france-fete-indias-modi-bastille-day-celebration-2023-07-14/, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2023).
[7] ‘‘India’s Modi And France’s Macron Agree On Defense Ties But Stand Apart On Ukraine’’, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/france-india-warplanes-bastille-day-macron-modi-081f753a6c239e74af7c119f2f025213, (Date of Accession: 14.07.2023).
