The trilateral nuclear consultations held in Moscow on April 8, 2025, between China, Russia, and Iran represent not merely a technical negotiation process concerning Iran’s nuclear activities, but also a strong indication that a new diplomatic architecture is emerging within a post-Western international order. This meeting reflects the parties’ intention to establish a sustainable framework for security and cooperation that could potentially replace the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At the same time, it can be interpreted at the intersection of Iran’s efforts to escape international isolation, Russia’s aim to overcome geopolitical encirclement, and China’s ambition to become a norm-setting global actor. The fact that the talks were conducted at an expert level rather than as a summit of heads of state demonstrates that this diplomatic axis is not confined to rhetorical commitments but is being grounded in institutional mechanisms based on technical negotiation capacity and field-level engagement.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian’s statement on the same day, emphasizing the need to “exclude all paths other than diplomacy and politics,” underscores Beijing’s ambition not merely to act as a facilitator, but to position itself as a central diplomatic actor.[1] This development marks a turning point in which the strategic vacuum created by the collapse of the JCPOA is being concretely addressed through a trilateral framework outside the Western sphere. The fact that similar consultations were also held in Beijing in March 2025 and that the dialogue is being sustained in a consistent manner suggests that this trilateral mechanism is not a temporary tactical alliance, but rather a structure with aspirations toward institutionalization.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko’s remark during the April 8 talks that post–UN Security Council Resolution 2231 scenarios were discussed reveals that this trilateral group no longer seeks merely to operate within the existing international system, but aspires to become an architect of an alternative global order.[2] In this context, China’s call for “a solution that takes into account the legitimate security interests of all parties” can be interpreted as a normative stance developed in response to criticisms of unilateralism often directed at traditional Western diplomacy.
Iran’s strategy in the post-JCPOA period has also accelerated the institutionalization of this trilateral axis. Following the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, Iran gradually expanded its nuclear program, suspended its commitments in 2020, and limited the inspections conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). After the failure of the Vienna negotiations in 2021–2022, Iran not only increased its level of uranium enrichment but also began to pivot diplomatically toward non-Western channels.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House in early 2025 and the revival of the “maximum pressure” policy have further reinforced Iran’s strategic pivot. Trump’s new measures targeting Iran—including tariffs, sanctions, and even statements threatening direct military strikes—clearly indicate that, from the U.S. perspective, the possibility of a diplomatic resolution has effectively been removed from the table.[3] During this period, Iran has refused to engage in direct talks with the United States, while expressing a conditional openness to indirect communication through mediators such as Oman. This reflects not only a significant erosion in the U.S.’s diplomatic capacity but also in its credibility within the Middle East. In the face of mounting pressure, Iran has not backed down; on the contrary, it has threatened to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) should the West trigger the “snapback” mechanism. This move signals that Iran is no longer merely asserting its right to nuclear energy, but also laying claim to the construction of a new international axis that recognizes and protects this right.
The diplomatic framework developed by China and Russia with Iran also serves their respective geopolitical interests. Amid an escalating economic confrontation with the United States, China is seeking reliable partnerships in the Middle East; in this context, Iran’s energy resources and anti-Western posture have become a strategic asset of indispensable value for Beijing. China’s expansion of its economic and logistical ties with Iran—particularly under the “Reconnection” and “Belt and Road” initiatives—has reinforced its role in nuclear negotiations not only as a diplomatic actor but also as a provider of infrastructural power. From Russia’s perspective, the strategic alignment with Iran offers a new axis of cooperation in energy and security, helping to offset its deteriorating relations with the West due to the war in Ukraine. The Iran–China–Russia triad is now advancing toward the construction of a “nuclear order” based not on Western-led mechanisms like the JCPOA, but on norms defined by the trio themselves. In light of these developments, a new alternative agreement—based solely on trilateral consensus and announced outside the UN framework—is expected to be made public in the fall of 2025.[4]
In the process of shaping this new order, Iran’s regional positioning is also being redefined. While the traditional security architecture in the Gulf region was established under Western leadership, Tehran is now seeking to transcend this framework by engaging in multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS+. Beyond nuclear negotiations, Iran’s growing cooperation with China in the fields of energy, defense, and infrastructure constitutes the foundation of this new strategic orientation. Meanwhile, its military and technical cooperation with Russia,particularly in strategic areas such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf,has provided Iran with enhanced deterrence capabilities. This dynamic not only strengthens Iran’s resilience against Western pressure but also holds the potential to permanently alter the balance of power in the Middle East.
The rise of this new diplomatic axis is also directly linked to the ineffectiveness of the European Union (EU) and the exclusionary policies of the United States. Although the EU initially assumed a coordinating role during the early phase of the JCPOA, it has remained largely ineffective since Trump’s 2018 withdrawal. In recent years, the alignment of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom with U.S. positions has further eroded the EU’s credibility as a neutral actor in the eyes of Iran. Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council has been rendered largely ineffective due to repeated U.S. vetoes, once again exposing the structural limitations of international legal mechanisms in managing global crises.
The Iranian nuclear dossier has moved beyond being a technical debate over armament and has become central to the question of which actors will shape the global order and on what normative foundations. China’s diplomatic leadership, Russia’s geopolitical balancing, and Iran’s quest for legitimacy are laying the initial foundations of a post-Western international system. The post-JCPOA period thus constitutes not only a critical juncture in the realm of nuclear governance, but also a testing ground for the emerging multipolar world order.
In conclusion, the trilateral nuclear consultations between China, Russia, and Iran reflect the materialization of a new geopolitical architecture developing outside the Western-dominated international system. These consultations represent not merely an attempt to fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the JCPOA, but the construction of a strategic alliance that enhances regional deterrence, generates normative alternatives, and aspires to redefine the global balance of power. In the coming period, this trilateral cooperation, originating at the technical level, is expected to evolve into an institutionalized security framework that serves as a counterweight to Western hegemony not only in the Middle East but across the broader Eurasian landscape. This emerging structure may well signal a transition to a new geopolitical phase in which multipolarity moves from discourse to practice.
[1]“China, Russia, Iran hold trilateral consultations on nuclear issue in Moscow”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202504/1331666.shtml, (Date Accessed: 09.04.2025).
[2] “Russia, Iran, China hold Moscow talks on reviving nuclear deal”, TASS, https://tass.com/politics/1939783, (Date Accessed: 09.04.2025).
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
