On November 21, 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized in a statement that Japan would fail if it followed the path of old militarism; and criticized Japan’s export of Patriot air defense missiles to the United States (US) and discussions on revising the Three Security Documents.[i] This development symbolizes Japan’s efforts to overcome its post-World War II pacifist structure, while triggering China’s historical perception. Historically, Japanese militarism has been an instrument of imperial expansionism since the Meiji Restoration (1868).
Japan’s militarist tradition took shape in the mid-19th century as a product of the modernization process. The transition from a feudal structure to a nation-state model with the Meiji Restoration gave rise to Fukoku Kyōhei’s “Enrich the Country, Strengthen the Armies” policy, which placed the military at the center of the state under the pretext of defense against Western imperialism. The compulsory military service system initiated by Yamagata Aritomo instilled military values in civil society, while the 1882 Imperial Address to Soldiers and Sailors sacralized absolute loyalty to the emperor. This ideology led to the army’s independence from civilian control; the General Staff reported directly to the emperor, without being subordinate to the cabinet.
In the early 20th century, the victory in the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905) reinforced militarism, but the restrictive nature of the Versailles System after World War I and the Great Depression of 1929 accelerated expansionist policies. The 1931 invasion of Manchuria paved the way for Japan to use threatening rhetoric for the first time, heralding the impending invasion of China. Historical events such as the Nanking Massacre left deep scars on the peoples of Asia. Japan’s rhetoric of being the “Savior of Asia” served as the ideological discourse of imperialism. During World War II, under the influence of army officers of rural origin, the cabinet was overthrown; the assassination of Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi in 1932 and the February Incident of 1936 consolidated militarist rule.[ii]
The end of the war, the Potsdam Declaration, and the Japanese Instrument of Surrender mandated complete disarmament; the Cairo Declaration nullified Japan’s expansionist achievements. The leaders tried at the Tokyo Trials symbolized the legal reckoning with militarism; however, under American occupation, General MacArthur’s reforms ensured that the military was reduced to a defensive force under Article 9 of the pacifist Constitution. This article, while rejecting the right to wage war, solidified the Three Non-Nuclear Principles (“non-possession, non-production, non-introduction”) as a commitment that led Eisaku Satō to win the Nobel Peace Prize.[iii] Historically, Japanese militarism has been fueled by economic pressures, population growth, resource scarcity, and ideological elements of Shinto nationalism.
The American occupation restructured Japan as a “disarmed nation”; the defense industry was revitalized with the Korean War, but the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), established in 1954, were subject to constitutional restrictions. Criticism of militarism declined after the 1960 US-Japan Security Treaty, but participation in the United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping Force after the Gulf War in the 1990s sparked discussions of normalization.[iv]
Under Shinzo Abe’s administration, the right to collective self-defense (2015 Security Laws) was adopted; the defense budget has been increasing for 13 years, and this trend has continued with the 2022 National Security Strategy. The arms export ban was loosened in 2014 with the Three Principles on Defense Equipment and Technology Transfer, enabling the export of Patriot missiles to the US as parts in 2023. Historically, these changes can be seen as an attempt to overcome Potsdam’s total disarmament obligation; China, however, has characterized this as rearmament.[v]
Mao Ning’s warning on November 21, 2025, focuses on debates within Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Japan has exported Patriot PAC-3 missiles (under license from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) to the US for the first time. This aims to replenish US stocks depleted in support of Ukraine.[vi] The 2023 revision has liberalized the export of fully assembled licensed firearms. These moves align with the LDP’s plan to revise its Three Major Security Documents (National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, Defense Reconstruction Plan).[vii][viii]
The revision discussions target the third article of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi did not make a clear commitment at the Budget Committee on November 11, 2025; in a book published in 2024, she argued that the principle was unrealistic for the effectiveness of US nuclear deterrence. The LDP plans to complete the revision by the end of 2026, which could open the door to nuclear sharing. In historical parallel, Takaichi’s “existential threat” rhetoric is reminiscent of the rhetoric surrounding the Mukden Incident of 1931. China interprets this initiative as a “resurgence of militarism.”[ix]
China’s reaction is directly related to events during World War II. Mao Ning recalled Cairo and Potsdam, stating that Japan was reviving its war rearmament industry; and criticized the revision of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles as “opening the door” to nuclear sharing. On November 19, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs characterized Takaichi’s comments on regional geopolitics as a militarism tactic, based on his parliamentary speech on November 7, 2025.[x]
Japan’s transformation can only be understood from the perspective of realism in international relations. Perceived threats strengthen alliances. However, China’s constructivist reading views the violation of historical norms (pacifism) as an erosion of trust. Patriot exports replenish US stocks and continue support for Ukraine. However, this situation could trigger an arms race in Asia.
The revision of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles weakens the NPT regime. Japan’s plutonium stockpiles pose a risk of increase. China-Japan relations peaked in diplomatic tension during the 2025 crisis; economic retaliations (decline in the influence of soft power) are straining mutual dependence. Regional states are concerned about Japan’s shadow of militarism.
In conclusion, Mao Ning’s warning marks a turning point that reflects Japan’s historical legacy of militarism in the current geopolitical landscape. Historically, the path from Meiji to Potsdam reveals the fragility of pacifism. Current revisions, while strengthening the US alliance, revive China’s traumatic memory. The international community must strengthen diplomatic channels (e.g., ASEAN+3) to navigate this tension. Japan’s commitment to peaceful development will be tested by norms such as the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. Otherwise, instability in the Asia-Pacific is inevitable.
[i] “If Japan to follow old path of militarism, it will end in failure, says Chinese spokesperson”, CGTN, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-11-21/Chinese-Foreign-Ministry-warns-Japan-s-return-to-militarism-would-fail-1ItVukQYvzG/p.html, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[ii] “Japan’s Quest for Power and World War II in Asia”, Asia for Educators”, Easia, https://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/japan_1900_power.htm, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[iii] “Campaign for Nobel Peace Prize for Japan Constitution’s Article 9 ends after decade”, The Mainichi, https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20251114/p2a/00m/0na/016000c, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[iv] “Japan PM Takaichi mulls reviewing long-held non-nuclear weapons principles”, Japan Wire, https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/64912, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[v] “In A Historic First, Japan Arms U.S. With Lethal Patriot PAC-3 Interceptor Missiles; But Why Is Tokyo Arming “Mentor” USA?”, The EurAsian Times, https://www.eurasiantimes.com/japan-arms-u-s-with-lethal-patriot-pac-3-interceptor-missiles/, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[vi]“ABD, Ukrayna’nın Patriot füze sistemini geliştirme talebini kabul etti”, Independent Türkçe, https://www.indyturk.com/node/768405/dünya/abd-ukraynanın-patriot-füze-sistemini-geliştirme-talebini-kabul-etti#google_vignette, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[vii] “Japan Exports Completed Patriot Missiles to U.S. for the First Time: “At America’s Request”, Asia Business Daily, https://cm.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2025111920491225103, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[viii] “Japan completes PAC-3 missile export to U.S.”, Japan Times, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/11/20/japan/japan-us-missile-export-pac-3/, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[ix] “Japan mulls nuclear policy shift as China warns of ‘dangerous signals”, CGTN, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-11-15/Japan-mulls-nuclear-policy-shift-as-China-warns-of-dangerous-signals–1IjzdP1yVnG/p.html, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).
[x] “China warns of severe consequences if Japan fails to retract its threats of military intervention over Taiwan”, Peoples Dispatch, https://peoplesdispatch.org/2025/11/20/china-warns-of-severe-consequences-if-japan-fails-to-retract-its-threats-of-military-intervention-over-taiwan/, (Access Date: 21.11.2025).Regional states are concerned about Japan’s militarism.
