Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has announced that nine candidates will compete in the leadership election scheduled for September 27, 2024, to determine Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s successor.[i] Kishida has invited the members running as candidates within the party to demonstrate the transformation the party has undergone. To recall, the Prime Minister announced last month that he would resign after his three-year tenure was overshadowed by scandals, rising prices caused anger among voters, and public opinion polls declined. This election will also be an important opportunity to showcase the renewed face of the LDP in its reform process.
Given the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) prevailing majority in the parliament, the victor of the forthcoming electoral contest is anticipated to assume the role of Japan’s next Prime Minister. Japan’s new prime minister will be officially appointed by the parliament on October 1, 2024, subsequent to the leadership election scheduled for the upcoming week. According to various surveys, the foremost contenders include former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi.
According to a survey conducted by NHK on September 9, 2024, 28% of participants prefer 67-year-old Shigeru Ishiba as the strongest candidate to succeed Kishida.[ii] Despite his popularity among the general electorate, Ishiba has acknowledged the challenges he faces in garnering support from party lawmakers, stressing that this will be his “final contest.” Among the candidates, he is distinguished as the sole proponent of transitioning from nuclear energy to renewable energy, with a particular emphasis on geothermal resources. [iii] In addition, he supports the enactment of laws that would allow women to ascend to the throne, a position opposed by many LDP lawmakers.
As part of the economic strategy, plans are in place to raise wages to cope with rising prices, and to exempt certain goods from Japan’s 10% sales tax in order to support low-income citizens.[iv] In addition, despite Japan’s aging population, he proposed improving the working conditions of military personnel to ensure that troop numbers remain adequate in order to maintain the country’s defense capabilities.
As an expert in defense and security, Ishiba advocates for the formation of a NATO-style military alliance in Asia and supports the preservation of democracy in Taiwan. Given that China considers Taiwan as an integral part of its sovereign territory, such external support is perceived by China as a threat to its sovereignty. In this context, Ishiba’s support for Taiwan and his proposal to deepen military cooperation in Asia have the potential to create tensions in diplomatic relations between Japan and China. Ishiba’s strategy demonstrates a firm stance against China’s geopolitical influence in the region, while also indicating Japan’s pursuit of enhancing its defense capabilities and strengthening military cooperation with regional allies. However, this approach may be perceived by China as a direct threat, potentially weakening trust between the two countries and exacerbating tensions in their relations.
Shinjiro Koizumi, at 43 years of age, is the son of the popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and a representative of a political dynasty that has exerted influence in Japanese politics for over a century. He positions himself as a reformist figure, capable of restoring public trust in a party shaken by scandals, an issue that has emerged as one of the central concerns on Japan’s current political agenda. However, the fact that Koizumi inherited his political career from his family may pose a disadvantage in the current political climate, especially in efforts to sever the ‘politics and money’ connections. If elected, Koizumi would become Japan’s youngest prime minister in the past 80 years.
Koizumi, identified as the most favored candidate among youth and women in media polls, has pledged to call for a general election in Japan ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.[v] Koizumi has pledged to accelerate the policies pursued by Kishida in order to foster economic growth that adapts to technological transformations and the rise of artificial intelligence.[vi] In addition, he has committed to providing financial assistance to retirees and low-income families. He has also expressed the view that Japan’s pacifist constitutional provisions should be amended.
Having completed his master’s degree at Columbia University and worked as a part-time research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, Koizumi is expected to leverage this academic and professional background to take steps toward strengthening Japan-U.S. relations in the fields of foreign policy and defense. Indeed, Koizumi has expressed his intention to further strengthen Japan’s alliance with the United States and expand cooperation with like-minded nations to counterbalance China’s growing influence. He also stated that shortly after assuming office, he aims to meet with the leaders of China and South Korea, and establish contact with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un.[vii] This reflects Koizumi’s desire to manage diplomatic relations with Japan’s neighboring countries in Asia more effectively and proactively within his foreign policy strategy.
Sanae Takaichi, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party’s right wing, currently serves as Japan’s Minister of Economic Security. Having competed against Kishida in 2021, Takaichi stands out as one of the strongest female candidates in the race. As a student of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she enjoys significant support from the party’s right wing due to her staunchly conservative positions. Takaichi opposes the use of maiden names by women after marriage, arguing that it would undermine traditional structures. Furthermore, she has emphasized her commitment to prioritizing economic growth as a means to further solidify Japan’s position on the global stage. She has also expressed plans to boost employment and strengthen consumer confidence through ‘strategic spending’ initiatives.
Takaichi, known for her conservative views advocating for the revision of Japan’s pacifist constitution, regularly visits the Yasukuni Shrine, which is seen by some Asian countries as a symbol of Japan’s former militarism. Her consistent visits to the shrine, where war criminals are also commemorated, may provoke discomfort in countries such as China, South Korea, and North Korea, which were affected by Japan’s wartime aggression. This suggests the possibility of Takaichi adopting a more assertive foreign policy in regional relations. Indeed, she advocates for a tougher stance against China.
Among the other candidates, 71-year-old Yoko Kamikawa, a Harvard graduate, currently serves as Kishida’s chief diplomat, supporting his strategies in the fields of foreign policy and defense. Taro Kono, 61 years old and known for his criticisms of party policies, stands out as the Minister for Digital Affairs through his efforts to reduce Japan’s reliance on fax machines and paper documents.[viii] Kono advocates for military expansion and has expressed his determination to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance. While he previously argued for the gradual phase-out of nuclear energy, he has now shifted to supporting its use.[ix] Toshimitsu Motegi, 67 years old and the Secretary-General of the LDP, has previously held positions as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Economy. He emphasizes economic growth targets aimed at eradicating deflation, while opposing Kishida’s tax increase plans by advocating for a “zero tax increase” strategy.[x] Motegi has also pledged to adopt a firm stance against China.
Regardless of which candidate wins the LDP leadership race, it is evident that the new prime minister will face significant challenges in both domestic and foreign policy. Although Kishida’s administration demonstrated a firm stance in the areas of foreign policy and security over the past three years, the insufficient attention given to economic and social issues has led to a decline in public welfare. In particular, rising prices, the depreciation of the yen, and low growth rates have deepened Japan’s economic challenges. The new LDP leader is expected to take concrete steps to meet the public’s expectations for solutions to economic and social issues. At the same time, with the leadership change, the LDP’s effort to erase the traces of past scandals and succeed in the upcoming elections, thereby maintaining its power, stands out as an important goal. In this context, the new leader’s ability to balance internal reforms and regional security strategies will determine Japan’s future political and economic stability. On the other hand, the prominence of candidates adopting a tougher approach towards China suggests that Japan is preparing to take a more assertive role in regional security. However, these strategies also carry the risk of further straining diplomatic relations with China.
[i] “Nine candidates named in Japan’s leadership race”, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/12/nine-candidates-named-in-japans-leadership-race, (Date of Access: 19.09.2024).
[ii] “LDP leadership election candidates: Who’s vying to be Japan’s next PM?”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/whos-vying-be-japans-next-prime-minister-2024-09-12/, (Date of Access: 19.09.2024).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
[v] Ibid.
[vi] Ibid.
[vii] “Nine candidates named in Japan’s leadership race”, Aljazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/12/nine-candidates-named-in-japans-leadership-race, (Date of Access: 19.09.2024).
[viii] “The candidates to be Japan’s next leader include a former premier’s son and a defense expert”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/japan-governing-party-prime-minister-kishida-candidates-8dae3f367e20dd8ef4ad4f370c586b5c, (Date of Access: 19.09.2024).
[ix] Ibid.
[x] Ibid.
