On 8 February 2026, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Sanae Takaichi, known as the ‘Iron Lady’, won the early general election held in Japan by a large margin. According to the election results, the LDP secured 316 of the 465 seats in the lower house of parliament, the House of Representatives. As it now holds a majority in the House, there is talk that the LDP government could take steps on strategic issues such as amending the constitution.
Experts suggest that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, having consolidated her power in government, will pursue a tougher security agenda in the future.[1] In this regard, it is anticipated that steps will be taken to significantly increase defence spending, revise the country’s pacifist constitution, revise arms export restrictions, expand the overseas operational authority of the Japan Self-Defence Forces, and develop military capabilities, including nuclear-powered submarines.
The election results indicate that expectations for a strong defence are widespread among the Japanese public. It is noted that the LDP’s achievement of securing a two-thirds majority in parliament is the first time this has happened in Japan since the Second World War.[2] This can essentially be seen as an important indicator of a return to the pre-Second World War situation. Strong public support will further motivate the LDP to fulfil its election pledges. Regarding this matter, Prime Minister Takaichi stated in his announcement following the election victory, ‘We bear a very heavy responsibility to fulfil the election pledges we have made,’ and said that concrete plans for constitutional reform would be debated in parliament.[3] Therefore, it can be said that Japan has entered a period in which expectations regarding constitutional reform will be addressed.
Japan’s tendency to move away from its pacifist structure by revising its defence policies since the 2013-2015 period continues today. The recent election success of the LDP, led by Takaichi, can also be seen as part of this general trend. One of the greatest concerns for regional actors, particularly China, is the possibility of Japan returning to its ultra-nationalist and militarist past prior to the Second World War. It appears that the amendments to the Japanese Constitution spearheaded by the LDP could mark the beginning of a return to these historical policies.
The greatest risk for China is Japan’s attempts to become involved in issues concerning Taiwan. This is why, following the election results in Japan, China called on the LDP government to retract its statements regarding Taiwan.[4] It should be recalled that on 7 November 2025, Sanae Takaichi, in response to a question addressed to her in parliament regarding the limits of national security, stated that a conflict scenario in Taiwan could allow for Japan’s military intervention.[5]
China, which closely monitors geopolitical changes in Tokyo and anticipates potential risks, is demanding that Japan change its stance on Taiwan in this context. In essence, Beijing’s approach stems largely from Tokyo’s shift in stance in recent years. The security and protection support provided by the United States (US) to Japan since the Second World War has enabled Tokyo to act with greater confidence and boldness in its foreign and security policies today. Backed by US support, Japan’s foreign policy also appears to be guided by a Western mindset. The Western mindset, however, is one of Cold War bloc politics. Pursuing a more aggressive policy towards neighbouring countries and viewing bilateral relations from a zero-sum perspective are among the most prominent features of this policy. It can be said that Japan, in its relations with China, seeks to maximise its power from a largely realist perspective rather than applying the win-win principle. This stance is frequently criticised by Beijing, which emphasises the need to avoid Cold War-style bloc formation.
Such bloc formation deepens mistrust among states in the Far East and risks triggering a new Cold War. The effects of this power struggle are most evident in relations between China, Japan and South Korea. Indeed, these actors have experienced a series of disputes inherited from the Second World War to the present day. Opting for conflict and bloc formation rather than diplomacy to resolve these disputes, which have their roots in recent history, may cause history to repeat itself once again. For this reason, it has become extremely important for the parties to pursue measured policies, to be cautious against intervention by Western actors, and to act together in resolving issues.
In times of potential crisis, China, South Korea and Japan maintaining open diplomatic and military communication channels and actively utilising the trilateral cooperation mechanism contribute positively to peace and security in the region. An example of this can be seen in August 2022, when the US attempted a provocative move in Taiwan and the reactions of regional actors to this. At that time, regional actors reiterated their commitment to China’s ‘One China’ principle. South Korea and Japan, meanwhile, kept communication channels with China open at all times, stating that this crisis could be overcome through diplomacy. Maintaining relations with China, a major economic partner for both South Korea and Japan, based on the win-win principle would greatly benefit the region’s peace and security. Cooperation with Western powers, including the United States, carries the risk of increasing regional polarisation.
[1] “Japan’s ruling bloc secures lower house majority: What’s next for China-Japan relations?”, CGTN, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-02-09/Japan-s-ruling-bloc-wins-lower-house-What-s-next-for-China-relations–1KCpV1zKJpu/p.html, (Access Date: 09.02.2026).
[2] “Japonya’da Takaiçi’nin zaferinden sonra gözler mali genişleme beklentilerine çevrildi”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/japonyada-takaicinin-zaferinden-sonra-gozler-mali-genisleme-beklentilerine-cevrildi/3824767, (Access Date: 09.02.2026).
[3] “Japonya’nın ilk kadın başbakanı, ülkedeki en büyük seçim zaferini kazandı”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/japonya-nin-ilk-kadin-basbakani-ulkedeki-en-buyuk-secim-zaferini-kazandi/3823951, (Access Date: 09.02.2026).
[4] “China urges Takaichi to withdraw remarks concerning China’s Taiwan after Japan election”, CGTN,https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-02-09/China-urges-Takaichi-to-withdraw-Taiwan-remarks-after-Japan-election-1KCH2L5mV1u/p.html, (Access Date: 09.02.2026).
[5] “Japan rebukes Chinese diplomat as Taiwan furore escalates”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/japan-protests-extremely-inappropriate-comments-by-chinese-envoy-2025-11-10/, (Access Date: 09.02.2026).
