The possibility of France’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) is not merely a product of contemporary political debates; it also entails a deeper questioning of the historical trajectory of European integration and the founding role assumed by France in this process. France is not an actor that was subsequently incorporated into European integration; on the contrary, it is among the intellectual, political, and institutional architects of this project. In the integration process that took shape after the Second World War with the aim of ensuring lasting peace in Europe, France became both the symbol of reconciliation and leadership alongside Germany. The early phases of integration, extending from the European Coal and Steel Community to the European Economic Community, were largely shaped under the guidance of French political elites. In this context, the EU has been perceived by France not merely as a field of economic cooperation, but also as an instrument for the reproduction of national power in a new form. Therefore, France’s withdrawal from the EU signifies, beyond being the preference of a member state, a rupture that directly targets the historical meaning and continuity of European integration.
France’s importance within the Union is not limited solely to its founding identity. For many years, France has been a normative actor shaping the political orientation of the EU. Its conception of the social state, economic policies open to public intervention, and emphasis on strategic autonomy have been among France’s distinctive contributions within the EU. The historical partnership established with Germany has functioned as a balancing element that has enabled both the economic rationality and political stability of the EU.[1] In this context, France’s disengagement from the Union would signify not merely the loss of a member state, but the loss of Europe’s internal coherence and its capacity to determine its direction.
As of 2025, France’s relations with the EU have come to be questioned more openly and more harshly compared to previous years. In particular, the rise of sovereigntist and Eurosceptic discourse in French domestic politics has once again brought to the fore the question of whether the EU constitutes a source of strength or a constraint for France. The positioning of the EU by far-right and populist movements as responsible for economic inequalities, migration pressure, and the crisis of democratic legitimacy has expanded anti-Union arguments onto a broader social base. The “integration fatigue” observed across Europe in the post-2025 period has transformed into a deeper identity debate in France.[2] This debate revolves around the question of whether France would be more influential at the center of Europe or outside it.
An important dimension of the current debates concerns the EU’s capacity to respond to crises. The deepening security concerns following the Russia-Ukraine War, problems related to energy supply, and the lack of coordination in defense policies have brought to the fore in France the question of whether the EU is sufficiently strong as a strategic actor. The idea of “European strategic autonomy,” long advocated by France, appears to have produced limited practical results as of 2025.[3] This situation fuels criticisms in France that EU membership generates dependency rather than strengthening national security. In particular, the continued central role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in European security weakens the EU’s claims in the field of defense and reinforces the perception that France’s vision within the Union has not found adequate resonance.
On the economic front as well, France–EU relations have settled on a more tense ground. The slowdown experienced in the European economy in 2025 has made disagreements regarding industrial policies and public support mechanisms more visible. While France demands a more flexible Europe in terms of industrial subsidies and state intervention, the EU’s approach based on competition and fiscal discipline has led to criticisms in France. In this context, the EU has begun to be perceived, from the French perspective, as a structure that, to some extent, constrains the national economic framework. Particularly in the processes of green transformation and digitalization, the additional costs imposed by EU regulations on French industry have strengthened the economic foundations of anti-Union discourse.
When evaluated in light of these current debates, the scenario of France’s withdrawal from the EU signifies a multi-layered crisis for the Union. In the absence of France, the political leadership of the EU would largely fall to Germany.[4] However, Germany’s determination of Europe’s direction on its own may generate both internal and external legitimacy problems due to historical sensitivities. This situation could push the EU toward a looser and more fragmented structure, deprived of a strong center. The Union, which has already experienced blockages in its decision-making processes during the 2020s, would face even greater difficulty in overcoming these blockages in the event of France’s departure.
From a geopolitical perspective, France’s withdrawal from the EU would significantly weaken Europe’s global role. France’s diplomatic network, military capacity, and particularly its nuclear deterrence constitute a crucial pillar of the EU’s global ambitions. An EU without France could become a more limited actor in the fields of defense and security and may be driven toward a more dependent trajectory in transatlantic relations. This situation would contradict Europe’s frequently articulated objective in the post-2025 period of becoming an “independent actor in a multipolar world order.”
From France’s perspective, the possibility of withdrawing from the EU, even if it offers short-term gains in sovereignty, entails serious long-term costs. The high level of integration of the French economy into the EU single market renders a separation scenario economically risky. In numerous areas ranging from agriculture to industry, and from financial services to research and innovation, France derives advantages through EU funds and common policies. The loss of these advantages, particularly in light of increasing social unrest and economic uncertainties in 2025, may generate new tensions within French domestic politics.
At the societal level, France’s withdrawal from the EU would further deepen the tension between European identity and national identity. For a long time, France has positioned itself as the bearer and defender of European values. Therefore, a break from the Union would not merely constitute a foreign policy choice, but would also create a rupture that contradicts France’s own historical narrative. Considering that, particularly among younger generations in the 2025 period, the idea of European citizenship still retains a certain resonance, a decision to withdraw carries the potential to intensify social polarization.
In conclusion, France’s withdrawal from the EU would constitute a structural rupture that goes beyond current political debates and calls into question the very meaning and future of European integration. The multiple crises faced by the EU in 2025 transform France’s potential departure from a merely technical option into an existential issue concerning the sustainability of the European project. France’s disengagement from the Union could render the EU not only smaller, but also less ambitious, less coherent, and less effective as an actor. Therefore, the possibility of France leaving the EU should be regarded as a critical threshold that compels not only France but Europe as a whole to reconsider its role in the twenty-first century.
[1] “France adopts budget after premier survives no-confidence vote”, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/c2008d99-2638-4009-ad9f-4bd80a9d6501, (Accessed on: 07.02.2026).
[2] Amandine Hess, “Political instability in France: What are the potential consequences for the EU?”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/05/political-instability-in-france-what-are-the-potential-consequences-for-the-eu, (Accessed on: 07.02.2026).
[3] Bart H. Meijer & Julia Payne, “EU must push for ‘Made in Europe’ strategy, EU industry chief says”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/eu-must-push-made-europe-strategy-eu-industry-chief-says-2026-02-01, (Accessed on: 07.02.2026).
[4] Andreas Rinke, “Germany’s New European Policy Puts Effectiveness before Unity”, IP Quarterly, https://ip-quarterly.com/en/germanys-new-european-policy-puts-effectiveness-before-unity, (Accessed on: 07.02.2026).
