In today’s international system, where great-power competition and strategic uncertainties are on the rise, a multi-vector foreign policy is viewed as a strategic choice for some states and an unavoidable necessity for others. A multi-vector foreign policy enables states to simultaneously maintain diplomatic, economic, and political relations with various actors without developing excessive dependence on any single power center. In this way, states gain strategic autonomy, diplomatic flexibility, and room for maneuver, allowing them to advance their national interests more effectively.
This policy has been developed by Kazakhstan as a systematic foreign policy approach and has likewise begun to be observed in the foreign policies of Central Asian states. In this context, it is important to assess whether the Central Asian states’ pursuit of a multi-vector foreign policy is a conscious and rational choice aimed at maximizing their national interests, or whether it is a necessity dictated by the region’s geopolitical position, historical legacy, and the conditions created by great power competition.
Kazakhstan has been a pioneer of the multi-vector foreign policy approach in the post-Soviet region. The foundations of this approach are laid out in the document “Strategy for the Formation and Development of Kazakhstan as a Sovereign State,” published by President Nursultan Nazarbayev in 1992. The document adopts the view that the country’s security will be ensured by developing balanced relations with various centers of power, and this approach has served as the fundamental principle of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy concepts since 2007.[i] While security concerns constitute one of the fundamental starting points of its multi-vector foreign policy, over time this approach has not remained confined solely to the security dimension.
Driven by the evolving international system and the competition among major powers, a multi-vector foreign policy has become a comprehensive foreign policy tool that provides countries with various benefits, including diplomatic flexibility, strategic autonomy, the diversification of economic partnerships, and the enhancement of their international bargaining power. In this context, and in light of Central Asia’s growing geopolitical and geoeconomic importance, the region’s countries have adopted a multi-vector foreign policy to balance China’s rising regional influence, Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, and the United States’ increasing interest in recent years, while preserving their strategic maneuvering space.
The adoption of a multi-vector foreign policy by Central Asian countries is not merely a conscious political choice. The region’s geopolitical position and economic situation also significantly influence this choice. First, the region’s landlocked geographical location compels Central Asian countries to establish balanced relationships simultaneously with neighboring states and various global actors in terms of foreign trade, energy exports, and international transportation corridors. At the same time, Russia’s traditional influence in the region, coupled with China’s growing economic influence in recent years under the Belt and Road Initiative, is driving Central Asia to strike a balance among these actors and avoid becoming dependent on a single power center.
Central Asia stands out in the areas of international transportation networks, global energy exports, and critical minerals. For this reason, the region’s states are developing multilateral partnerships with various actors and participating in a range of projects to advance these sectors and attract foreign investment. In this context, Central Asia’s geographical structure and its strategic economic resources stand out as factors that make pursuing a multifaceted foreign policy a structural necessity.
This approach is associated with the “hedging” strategy in the literature on international relations. This strategy is known as an approach whereby states aim to mitigate risks and protect their national interests by establishing simultaneous relationships with different centers of power, without becoming dependent on a single actor, in the face of an uncertain international system and competition among powers. In this context, hedging is viewed as a strategy that falls between “balancing” and “bandwagoning” strategies.
Central Asian states, meanwhile, are diversifying their economic and political partnerships while preserving their foreign policy maneuvering room by simultaneously developing relations with various power centers, primarily Russia, China, the United States (U.S.), and the European Union. The growing influence of middle powers in Central Asia, including Türkiye, South Korea, and the Gulf States, also supports the region’s states in pursuing multi-vector foreign policy approaches.[ii] In this regard, the risk mitigation strategy not only explains how Central Asia’s multi-vector foreign policy works in practice but also illustrates the efforts of the region’s states to preserve their room for maneuver amid great-power competition and to adapt to the changing international system.
The Central Asian states are implementing their multi-vector foreign policy not only in theory but also in practice, actively participating simultaneously in various regional and international platforms, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). While a multi-vector foreign policy may be sustainable in traditional security and diplomatic spheres, it is increasingly losing its flexibility in areas such as critical minerals, advanced technology, and strategic supply chains. Consequently, the increased visibility of Central Asian states in these critical areas is also causing them to find themselves at the center of great power competition. For this reason, this geo-economic competition is forcing Central Asian states to conduct their multi-vector foreign policy within a more complex framework and with less maneuvering room than in the past.[iii] Consequently, even though a multi-vector foreign policy still offers advantages, the regional states’ room for maneuver is gradually narrowing, and this situation is making the sustainability of that policy more fragile.
The intensifying competition among major powers in the international system, and, in particular, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, may lead to expectations that Central Asian states adopt a clearer and more consistent political stance. Similarly, the need for Central Asian states to increase cooperation in areas where U.S.-China strategic competition is intensifying, such as critical minerals and supply chains, may make it more difficult for these countries to maintain the diplomatic flexibility they have enjoyed in the past.[iv] Consequently, as polarization and great-power rivalry intensify, it has become more costly for Central Asian states to develop selective partnerships and pursue their multi-vector foreign policies than it was in the past.
Despite rising costs, it is not expected that the multi-vector foreign policy will be completely abandoned. On the contrary, it is anticipated that regional states will adapt by developing a more cautious and balanced approach to the changing international system. To date, the multi-vector foreign policy has offered Central Asian states new partnerships and significant opportunities in strategic areas, particularly in critical minerals and energy transition. In this regard, the recent investments and collaborations by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, in particular, in critical minerals and strategic supply chains are further enhancing their geostrategic importance.
Consequently, although a multi-vector foreign policy in Central Asia initially emerged as a strategic choice, it is now increasingly becoming a structural necessity. The region’s geopolitical position and economic needs are driving states to pursue simultaneous partnerships with different actors. However, the intensifying competition among major powers and the growing involvement of Central Asian countries in more critical areas are making the implementation of a multi-vector foreign policy increasingly costly and fragile. Nevertheless, it is not expected that this foreign policy will be completely abandoned. The future of this policy will depend on the ability of Central Asian actors to maintain their strategic flexibility.
[i] Roman A. Yuneman, “Kazakhstan’s Multi-Vector Foreign Policy: A Case Study of Voting on UNGA Resolutions”, Russia in Global Affairs, https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/kazakhstan-multi-vector/, (Date of Access: 04.07.2026).
[ii] Murad Nosibov, “The Limits of Central Asia’s Multi-Vector Foreign Policy”, The Hague Research Institute, https://hagueresearch.org/the-limits-of-central-asias-multi-vector-foreign-policy/, (Date of Access: 04.07.2026).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
