On October 2022, British media corporation Reuters claimed that the Truss Government, who came to the Office in September 2022, will qualify China as a “threat” by a radical change in foreign policy.[1] With this change, China’s position in British Foreign Policy will be to the same degree as Russia’s. As a matter of fact, in the Boris Johnson period, China was categorized as a “systemic opponent.” However, the new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, has decided to take it one step further and raise it to the level of “threat.”
Describing China as a threat was one of Truss’ most notable promises. Therefore, it was not surprising that such a decision was taken. The question being asked here is whether Continental Europe will follow the United Kingdom (UK) and make China a target. In the new Strategic Concept adopted at the Madrid Summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in June 2022, China was mentioned as a “strategic opponent” as well as Russia. However, this decision does not represent a change that would require NATO members to take a stand against Beijing. Rather, it is aimed to be prepared for potential threats that may arise from Russia as well as China.
The United States of America (US) and Britain act in unison so that NATO can fight Russia and China simultaneously. With this step, the Truss Government creates an infrastructure for European countries to fight against China. Former US President Donald Trump has made such descriptions for Iran, has imposed economic sanctions against the Tehran administration, and the parties have come back from the brink of war many times. The UK’s official categorization of China as an enemy can also be seen as a strategy of preparation for war in Taiwan.
London argues that it is too late to support Ukraine and that’s why Taiwan should be helped. To prepare for this, the UK firstly categorized China as a threat. This means, as, in the Ukraine example, London desires the Western powers to interlock around Taiwan and have a common front against China.
Now the UK demand NATO countries establish a similar ally against China as they were against Russia. The threat of China was mentioned at the last NATO Summit in Spain. However, NATO countries have quite different approaches towards China than Russia. In brief, even if NATO achieves unity against Russia, it would not be possible against China. However, it is not impossible though. Because, considering the example of Russia, Europe, despite being heavily dependent on Moscow in the field of energy, could equally risk being hostile to China if it was able to turn it into an enemy and dared to fight it.
At that point, it is needed to be considered that, how much the NATO countries are dependent on Russia and China, in terms of energy, economics, and trade. The belt-Road Project of China and trade relations with Europe and investments towards these countries are bigger than Russia’s activities here. For instance, China is the biggest trading partner of Europe. Europe, which imports 472 billion Euros worth of goods from China, exports 223 billion Euros to this country.[2] Russia is Europe’s fifth largest partner. Europe, which imports 162 billion Euros from Russia, exports 89 billion Euros to this country.[3]
In addition to all these, China’s investments in Greece and Italy ports within the scope of the Belt-Road Project and its shipments to Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands ports are seen as the most important contributions of China to the European economy. However, Europe is dependent on Russia for energy as much as it is dependent on China for trade. Therefore, starting from the economic criteria, Russia’s in the eyes of Europe; it is quite difficult to determine whether China is more indispensable.
It would be easier to look at this issue from the point of view of geopolitical risks. Russia is next to Europe, and when it comes to the nuclear threat, action by NATO members seems inevitable.
On the other hand, a war between China and Taiwan poses a threat to the economic security of Europe. In other words, it indirectly affects the security of Europe. Therefore, Europe, and more generally NATO members, may not see China as a vital threat to their territory. For this reason, the UK may find it difficult to find more supporters than Continental Europe at the point of accepting China as a threat.
The US, the UK, and the Anglo-Saxon states in a broader sense have become a pole against Russia and China. At this point, the distinction between NATO and Europe emerges. Continental Europe may start to think that this fight is useless due to the energy crisis, even though it is at war with Russia. Again, since they are highly dependent on China economically, they will not easily position Beijing as an enemy. The US, which is the leader of NATO, and the UK, which follows it, want entire Continental Europe to fight both Russia and China simultaneously.
The US, leading the campaign for Europe to support Kyiv in the Russia-Ukraine War, wants Continental Europe to be vigilant in case of the danger of China attacking Taiwan shortly. The UK now wishes to implement the same policy that NATO pursues in Ukraine on the Taiwan issue. However, this is a risky strategy.
Because it may cause Taiwan to gain more courage and move away from China, ultimately resulting in an attack by China. It should not be forgotten that; some of the guarantees NATO offered to Ukraine encouraged Kyiv and Ukraine began to move away from Russia. When war broke out between the two countries, NATO remained silent and did not rush to Kyiv’s support. The same may be true for Taiwan. The Anglo-Saxon alliance, led by the US and England, encourages Taiwan by saying that NATO will support it. When war broke out between the two countries, NATO remained silent and did not rush to Kyiv’s support. The same may be true for Taiwan. The Anglo-Saxon alliance, led by the US and England, encourages Taiwan by saying that NATO will support it. Therefore, the Anglo-Saxons’ giving some assurances to Taiwan is quite dangerous in terms of regional security. Because there is no guarantee that the Western powers will support Taiwan in a possible war.
As a result, the US and UK may be misleading them by making Continental Europe hostile to China. After Ukraine, there is still a strong possibility that Europe will make a mistake in the Taiwan Issue. Therefore, the US and NATO members except the UK will be more cautious in struggling against the “Chinese threat.” Europe, which discusses the sustainability of the war in Ukraine due to the energy crisis and looks at Britain’s pro-war attitude from a different perspective, can also differ from the Anglo-Saxons on the issue of China. In short, after describing China as a threat, Britain may become even more isolated in Europe.
[1] “UK To Designate China A ‘Threat’ in Hawkish Foreign Policy Shift”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/11/uk-to-designate-china-a-threat-in-hawkish-foreign-policy-shift, (Date of Accession: 12.10.2022).
[2] “China”, European Commission, https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/china_en, (Date of Accession: 12.10.2022).
[3] “Russia”, European Commission, https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/russia_en, (Date of Accession: 12.10.2022).
