The ongoing legal process involving Brazil’s former Head of State, Jair Bolsonaro, marks a critical turning point in Brazil’s democratic journey. These developments raise complex questions about the relationship between political power, legal accountability, and constitutional order. As of mid-2025, Bolsonaro faces formal investigation by the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) for allegedly plotting a coup to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after his defeat in the 2022 presidential election. The charges against Bolsonaro are not only about conspiracy and provocation but also reflect concerns over the erosion of democratic institutions and the rise of populist authoritarianism in Latin America.
The indictment presented by Attorney General Paulo Gonet includes more than 500 pages of documents aimed at proving the existence of a criminal organization controlled by Bolsonaro, whose main goal is to annul President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s electoral victory. The alleged criminal group, composed of former senior military officials and Bolsonaro’s political allies, is accused of devising operational strategies to undermine the constitutional order, including the possible use of coercive state mechanisms. Statements from significant military figures such as General Marco Antonio Freire Gomes and Air Force Commander Carlos de Almedia Baptista Junior are especially prominent. Both testified under oath that they resisted Bolsonaro’s offers and rejected any plans that could threaten Brazil’s institutional stability. The former commander warned Bolsonaro that any “institutional break” would be firmly opposed by the military leadership, and the Brazilian Armed Forces would intervene decisively to defend the constitutional order.[i]
Bolsonaro’s defense has constantly relied on allegations of political repression and has drawn analogies to judicial excesses in other democracies, especially the United States of Amerika (USA) under the Trump administration. In his public statements and documents that he submitted to the court, Bolsonaro denies that he conspired against the democratic order and describes the ongoing investigations as part of a coordinated campaign to silence conservative political opposition. His legal team argued that Bolsonaro’s handling of controversial legal documents and public statements is within the bounds of free speech and does not constitute provocation or illegal order. However, increasing witness statements and digital evidence pointing to deliberate planning and coordination, including allegations that a draft decree was prepared to invalidate the election results and that interactions with civilian and military actors were engaged to achieve this goal, have undermined these claims.
The judiciary, under the leadership of the Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, adopted a proactive approach to applying preventive legal measures. Bolsonaro has been subjected to significant restrictions, including a ban on leaving his house at night, the use of an electronic ankle monitor, the confiscation of his passport, and a ban on contacting other defendants or entering diplomatic facilities.[ii] These measures were taken by the court on the grounds that they were serious but necessary to prevent the influence of witnesses, evasion of justice, and the spread of disinformation. Legal justification emphasizes that Bolsonaro is not above the law and should be held accountable for his actions that threaten the democratic structure of the country.
Legal processing has also become an international debate with significant geopolitical consequences. The US, and especially former president Donald Trump’s, open support for Bolsonaro has complicated diplomatic relations. Recent developments include the current US administration imposing punitive customs duties on Brazilian exports and revoking the entry visas of Brazilian judicial officials, including Judge de Moraes.[iii] While US officials defend these actions as a measure against judicial abuse, it has been widely condemned in Brazil as a violation of national sovereignty and an attempt to influence domestic judicial processes through economic pressure. Brazilian officials across the political spectrum, including those aligned with conservative blocs, have rejected U.S interference and reaffirmed the independence of the Brazilian judiciary. The executive branch, headed by Lula da Silva, has responded by trying to provide internal support to the judicial institutions and by describing the US measures as unfair and counterproductive.
Investigations into the financial activities of Bolsonaro’s immediate family also complicate the situation. Eduardo Bolsonaro, who is a federal MP and prominent political figure, has had his financial assets frozen by a recent judicial order on suspicion of lobbying abroad to persuade foreign governments to defend his father.[iv] This action shows that the judiciary is not limiting its scope to the former president, but it’s conducting a comprehensive investigation into all elements of the alleged network. The freezing of the assets, while objectionable, points to a broader prosecutorial strategy aimed at disrupting the financial infrastructure as well as the operational capacity that sustains Bolsonaro’s political apparatus.
From a constitutional and legal perspective, this case represents a profound test of Brazil’s democratic resilience. It raises fundamental questions about the capacity of legal institutions to manage political crises without succumbing to partisan influence or extremism. STF’s actions are bold but lawful and consistent with the principles of legal accountability that apply to all citizens, regardless of rank or former office. However, the political climate remains volatile. Bolsonaro remains a highly polarizing figure and maintains the support of a significant portion of the population. He has vowed to continue his political actions despite being barred from public office until 2030 for a separate election violation, fueling he could return if the judiciary is unable to hand down a conviction.
The implications of this case extend far beyond Brazil’s borders. This case reflects a global struggle over the limits of executive power, the legitimacy of electoral systems, and the rule of law in post-authoritarian societies. As the case continues, experts inside and outside of Brazil must deal with the potential of this case not only to redefine the course of Brazilian conservatism but also to redefine international norms related to democratic decline, foreign intervention, and transitional justice. Expected by the end of 2025, the decision will have lasting consequences on constitutional trust, civil-military relations, and the symbolic authority of the judiciary to protect the democratic order against illiberal threats. In this context, Bolsonaro’s case is not just a legal process, but a constitutional showdown that will shape the moral and legal boundaries of Brazilian democracy for future generations.
[i] “Brazilian ex-President Bolsonaro echoes Trump by describing his coup plot trial as a ‘witch hunt’”, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-prosecution-4f1cdaf2ecce056cdc6af5c2481b0c1d, (Retrieved on: 23.07.2025).
[ii] “Brazil’s former President Bolsonaro ordered to wear an electronic ankle monitor”, Associated Press, https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-investigation-supreme-court-b1e2c1fbb7f776103895b6efca94af4f, (Retrieved on: 23.07.2025).
[iii] “Rubio moves to strip US visas from eight Brazilian judges in Bolsonaro battle”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/19/rubio-moves-to-strip-us-visas-from-eight-brazilian-judges-in-bolsonaro-battle, (Retrieved on: 23.07.2025).
[iv] “Brazil’s top court orders raids on Bolsonaro; Washington revokes judge’s visa”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-top-court-orders-raids-bolsonaro-washington-revokes-judges-visa-2025-07-18/, (Retrieved on: 23.07.2025).
