Portuguese general elections have constituted the main mechanism of democratic representation since the country’s transition from constitutional monarchy to republic. After the 1974 Carnation Revolution ended the authoritarian regime, the democratic system adopted a parliamentary structure based on proportional representation and introduced multi-party political life. Parliamentary elections are held every four years and competition between political parties based on alliances is common. While there is a historical balance between left and right, economic crises, migration, European Union (EU) policies and global trends have a significant impact on electoral outcomes. The elections are not only important for the determination of power, but also for understanding Portugal’s orientation within Europe, expectations of institutional reforms and the level of social polarization.
The May 18, 2025 general elections in Portugal marked a critical turning point, revealing not only the domestic political balance but also the ongoing structural transformations in European politics. The Democratic Alliance (AD), representing the center-right, emerged as the first party with 32.7% of the vote and 89 seats.[i] However, this result did not provide a sufficient majority to form a government on its own. This relative success of AD points to a resurgence of right-wing electoral tendencies in a country where the Socialist Party (PS) has been strong in the past.
The most significant development of the elections was the success of the Chega Party by far. Known for its far-right rhetoric and focusing on populist themes such as anti-immigration, harsh penalties and the preservation of the traditional family structure, Chega won 58 seats with more than 18% of the vote, equal to the Socialist Party.[ii] This development marks not only a break in Portuguese politics at the party level, but also a deepening of an ideological polarization.
The leader of the Democratic Alliance, Luís Montenegro, made it clear after the election results that they would not form any coalition with Chega: “No means no.” This statement is underlined not only by political tactics, but also by the values of liberal democracy.[iii] Although Montenegro’s distance from Chega increases the risk of political instability in the short term, it also reflects the reflex of Portugal’s mainstream politics to keep its distance from the far right. However, the sustainability of this stance is questionable in light of the difficulties the minority government will face in passing legislation.
In the case of Portugal, the rise of the far-right, which has been observed across Europe, is no longer just a potential threat but has become a real and influential political force. Chega, which shares similar ideological lines with the National Union in France, AfD in Germany and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy in Italy, is now the third largest force in the Portuguese Parliament. This picture shows that the right-wing populist wave, which is shaped around the discourse of national sovereignty, anti-immigration and “the people against the elites” across Europe, has spread its influence to Portugal.
These developments are also being carefully monitored by the EU. Chega’s anti-European integration rhetoric may lead Portugal to redefine its role in the EU. Although Portugal is traditionally defined as a Europeanist country, the growing influence of the far right may lead to serious deviations in EU policies. Chega’s rhetoric is not compatible with the EU, especially on issues such as the Schengen regime, common migration policies and the use of EU funds. In the words of Chega leader André Ventura, “the Portuguese people no longer want to submit to the impositions of Brussels.” This discourse challenges not only domestic politics but also the nature of relations with the EU.[iv]
The election results can also be read as an indicator of the crisis of representation in Portugal. The fact that the Democratic Alliance had difficulty in forming a government despite being the first party reveals that the people are unable to show a clear orientation or that the political elites are unable to respond to the demands of the people. This fragmentation in voter behavior may make the formation of new political blocs inevitable. Indeed, if the center-right fails to approach Chega, the legislative process could be seriously deadlocked, leading to discussions on early elections.
In light of all these developments, it can be said that Portugal will face three main challenges in the coming period. First, it is a matter of uncertainty whether the government will be able to effectively manage the legislative process. Second, whether Chega will remain in the opposition or develop an implicit cooperation with the center-right will directly affect the healthy functioning of Portuguese democracy. The third and perhaps the most important issue is whether Portugal will redefine its identity in Europe. Portugal, which has traditionally taken a pro-European stance, is now facing the risk of shifting towards an isolationist and nationalist axis under the influence of populist discourses.
As a result, the 2025 elections represent a threshold not only for Portugal but also for the political future of Europe. The traditional center-right is gaining strength, but the far-right is gaining a decisive position, which is in line with the trends observed in many countries in Europe. In this context, Portugal has become an important laboratory where the future of liberal democracy, the direction of relations with the EU and the resistance to populism are tested. How this process is managed will be decisive for both Portugal’s domestic political stability and the sustainability of democratic values in Europe.
[i] Aitor Hernández-Morales, “Center-right wins Portugal’s election — but not a majority”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/portugal-election-center-right-democratic-alliance-coalition-luis-montenegro-chega/, (Date Accessed: 20.05.2025).
[ii] “Portugal’s ruling center-right alliance wins election, but far-right makes record gains”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/19/europe/portugals-ruling-center-right-alliance-wins-election-intl (Date Accessed: 20.05.2025).
[iii] Alison Roberts, “Portugal PM’s party wins snap election but falls short of majority”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e5v5lpddyo (Date Accessed: 20.05.2025).
[iv] Ibid.
