Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the “grain deal” on October 30, 2022, after the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on the Black Sea Fleet ships off the coast of Sevastopol. The Russian Ministry of Defense made various accusations, stating that the attacks were carried out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and that the United Kingdom (UK) was also involved in these attacks. In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the ships exposed to the attacks ensure the security of the “Grain Corridor.”
According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who made a statement on the subject, the UAVs attacking the ships of the Black Sea Fleet were heading towards the corridor where the grain was extracted. This poses a threat both for the Russian ships that need to ensure the security of grain export and for the civilian (commercial) ships that carry out the shipment. The President of Russia stated that the Moscow administration could be blamed if Ukraine attacked these commercial vessels. In addition, Putin said that Russia did not withdraw from the grain agreement; he just announced that Russia’s participation was suspended.[1]
As it will be remembered, an international agreement on the creation of a corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain was signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022. This agreement; was signed by the United Nations (UN), Türkiye, Russia, and Ukraine. At this point, Ankara stated that efforts will continue to keep the corridor open despite Russia’s decision.[2] As a matter of fact, on October 31, 2022, ships mostly going to Africa and carrying agricultural products left the Ukrainian ports.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov warned that a mechanism without Russia’s involvement would become much riskier. In this context, Peskov said:[3]
“Under the conditions in which Russia talks about the impossibility of guaranteeing navigational safety in these regions, such an agreement is unlikely and takes on a different character: it is much more risky, dangerous, and not guaranteed.”
The President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelenskyy, is afraid of Russia abandoning its current obligations and rather than the implementation of the documents signed with Russia; expressed his interest in the aggravation of the global food crisis.[4]
Russian State Duma President Vyacheslav Volodin said in a statement that while the attacks against the Russian Navy in the Black Sea continue; stated that the re-implementation of the grain agreement is not possible.[5]
As can be understood, the main reason for the Moscow administration’s withdrawal from the agreement is the increase in attacks against Russia. Because Crimea and Sevastopol Port, where the Russian Fleet Crimea is located, have been targeted more intensely than ever since August 2022.
Moreover, on the one hand, the Ukrainian Army is making preparations to take back the occupied lands with new weapons supplied by the West; on the other hand, nuclear tension between the West and Russia continues. The calls of the Moscow administration for dialogue and meetings are not answered. In other words, Russia wants the negotiations to start again and expects a similar process to be implemented again by citing the agreement made in Istanbul as an example. However, neither the United States nor Ukraine favors such a meeting.[6]
As expected, Russia, by not withdrawing from the grain agreement, suspended its participation in the agreement, thus paving the way for the negotiation process to come to the agenda again. In this context, Russia wishes to fulfill some of its demands regarding its security concerns to return to the agreement. It threatens the largest consumers of grains with a food crisis, arguing that otherwise the “Grain Corridor” would not be reliable.
According to the Moscow administration, only 3-4% of the grains extracted from Ukraine reached African and Asian countries. Most of them went to rich European states. Russia, on the other hand, has suspended the agreement at the current stage, giving the message that the security of the “Grain Corridor” is at risk. In short, Moscow implies that there may be a major food crisis in Europe. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia announced that he has started work for shipments to African countries.
After all, Moscow’s aim is not to experience new tensions; it is to put pressure on Western states by giving the message that food shipments to Europe are at risk, and thus to create a negotiation environment in their interests for the solution of the Ukraine Crisis.
[1] “Путин объяснил приостановку участия России в зерновой сделке”, Lenta.Ru, https://lenta.ru/news/2022/10/31/zernovaya/, (Date of Accession: 1.11.2022).
[2] “Турция переживает за всех”, Kommersant, https://www.kommersant.ru/amp/5645504, (Date of Accession: 1.11.2022).
[3] “Песков считает, что без России зерновая сделка вряд ли выполнима”, Kommersant, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5645295, (Date of Accession: 1.11.2022).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Вячеслав Володин, https://t.me/vv_volodin/566, (Date of Accession: 1.11.2022).
[6] “Песков объяснил, почему договариваться с Киевом невозможно”, Ria Novosti, https://ria.ru/20221030/peskov-1827895489.html, (Date of Accession: 1.11.2022).
