Romania, as a strategic member state located on the eastern wing of the European Union (EU), plays a decisive role in the Union’s future in terms of both its geopolitical position and internal political dynamics. The fact that populist and far-right movements, which have been on the rise across Europe in recent years, have also made their influence felt in Romanian politics has turned this country into an important testing ground for the protection of the EU’s democratic norms.
The Romanian Presidential Elections held between May 4-18, 2025, directly affected not only the political balances within the country but also the strategic stability at the EU’s eastern borders. Nicușor Dan’s victory against his far-right and “pro-Russian” rival George Simion marked a critical turning point in terms of democratic values, rule of law, and European integration. The participation rate of approximately 65% demonstrated the public’s interest in the democratic process and political responsibility. Despite Simion’s superiority in the first round, Dan’s victory with 53.6% of the vote in the second round revealed that voters united on a “pro-European” line in the second round.[i]
George Simion’s “anti-EU” rhetoric highlighted during his election campaign, his distant approach to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and his promises to end support for Ukraine were met with concern in many European capitals, especially Brussels. These discourses were thought to carry the risk of spreading the kind of authoritarian tendency seen in the Hungarian example to the eastern wing. Therefore, Nicușor Dan’s victory was evaluated as a strategic gain not only at the national level but also in terms of the political stability of the European continent.
Romania holds special importance due to its geopolitical position within the EU. Its coastline on the Black Sea and its border neighborhood with Moldova and Ukraine have made the country a key actor on the EU’s eastern border in terms of security, energy, and foreign policy. Especially after the Russia-Ukraine War, the necessity of strengthening the security architecture on the eastern wing has made it essential for Romania to be under a stable and “pro-European” administration. Romania’s role will also be decisive in Moldova’s potential EU membership process.[ii] In this framework, Romania’s internal political stability has emerged as an indispensable element for the EU’s enlargement policies.
Nicușor Dan is a political figure who stands out with his academic background and technocrat identity. He received mathematics education, worked in the civil society field for many years, and gained public trust especially in urban planning, environmental policies, and anti-corruption issues. He was elected as Mayor of Bucharest in 2020, proving his governance skills at the local level and taking reformist steps in transparency and effective use of public resources.[iii]Similarly, in his presidential campaign, he emphasized topics such as economic and administrative reforms compatible with the EU, independence of the justice system, rule of law, and strengthening media freedom. In this respect, Dan’s vision coincided with the goal of bringing Romania institutionally closer to EU norms.
The far-right line represented by George Simion shows parallelism with the populist and authoritarian tendencies rising across Europe. It has been observed that the AUR Party has established a serious base especially in rural areas and among economically disadvantaged voters.[iv] Although the election results concluded with the victory of the centrist and “pro-European” bloc, they also revealed that the far right found strong response within society and that this threat had not disappeared. This situation should be evaluated as part of a broader political transformation observed not only in Romania but also in other parts of Europe.
The election process has also been analyzed in the context of possible foreign interference. It was claimed that the elections held in 2024 and later canceled were overshadowed by Russia-backed disinformation campaigns. The fact that the new elections were conducted safely, transparently, and with high participation reconfirmed the institutional resilience of Romanian democracy. This development constituted a positive example in terms of the sustainability of democratic norms for the EU.
From an economic perspective, Dan’s election to the presidency was perceived by markets as a signal of stability. Expectations were formed that in case of Simion’s victory, EU funds could be suspended, investor confidence would decrease, and fluctuations would occur in money markets. However, Dan’s election strengthened predictions that EU funds would continue to be used effectively and Romania would maintain its attractiveness for foreign investment.[v] At the same time, it became clear that Romania’s support for Ukraine would continue and coordination with NATO would continue uninterrupted.
In conclusion, the 2025 Romanian Elections became not only a change of administration but also a critical link in the struggle for democracy in Europe. Nicușor Dan’s victory showed that the commitment to the ideal of integration with the EU was once again confirmed by popular will. However, the significant vote share obtained by the far right in the elections revealed that populism poses a serious challenge in Romania, as it does across Europe. In this context, the EU’s increase of structural support for Romania in the post-election period, strengthening democratic institutions, and developing policies that appeal to young generations are among the fundamental factors that can make this achievement permanent.
[i] Jon Henley, “Romania election: EU breathes sigh of relief after Dan defeats far-right rival”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/19/romania-election-eu-relief-nicusor-dan-defeats-far-right-pro-russia-rival-george-simion, (Date Accessed: 19.05.2025).
[ii] Mitchell McCluskey & Sophie Tanno, “Romania’s pro-EU candidate unexpectedly beats hard-right rival to win presidential election”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/18/europe/romania-presidential-election-result-intl-latam, (Date Accessed: 19.05.2025).
[iii] Tim Ross, “Carmen Paun and Andrei Popoviciu, Pro-EU moderate Nicușor Dan wins Romanian presidential election stunner”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/romanian-presidential-election-results-nicusor-dan-george-simion/, (Date Accessed: 19.05.2025).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] “Romania’s liberal mayor wins presidency, as Portugal and Poland’s election results come in”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c74q57kydget, (Date Accessed: 19.05.2025).
