The Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2022. It not only shook European security architecture but also profoundly impacted the east west logistics networks, a key artery of global trade. European countries, seeking to reduce their energy and logistics dependence on Russia and to sustainably secure their trade with China. They began turning to alternative routes bypassing Russia. In this context, the Central Asian and South Caucasian regions, which for many years had been under the influence of major powers and often remained in the background in global economy, have once again become geopolitical and commercial focal points.
Central Asian and South Caucasian countries have entered a “New Great Game” to secure their own roles in this new geostrategic equation between East and West. The wave of infrastructure development initiated by China’s Belt and Road Initiative, coupled with Europe’s search for routes outside of Russia over the past two years, has led to an increase in investment in transportation corridors in the region. Countries like Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have embarked on massive infrastructure projects to strengthen their connections both within themselves and with each other. Prominent among these projects are railways, highways, ports, logistics centres, and energy pipelines. Furthermore, these countries are not content with physical connections; they have also begun investing in digital trade infrastructure. This demonstrates their desire to transform the region not only into a transit point but also a regional production and distribution hub.
The “Middle Corridor,” the shortest land route between Europe and China, passing through Türkiye, has been one of the most notable elements of this transformation. Originating in China, this route reaches Türkiye via Kazakhstan, Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, and from there, it opens onto Europe. This route offers a safer, faster, and more economical alternative by reducing dependence on the Suez Canal or Russia. Azerbaijan’s investments in the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway line, the capacity increase at Alat Port on Caspian Sea, and the construction of new logistics centres are among the concrete examples of this transformation. Turkmenistan, a key player in trans Caspian trade, is striving to strengthen both its port infrastructure and its eastward connections. However, this escalating transit competition is not limited to economic dynamics alone.
Political tensions and frozen conflicts in the region pose serious risks to the reliability of these new routes. Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia stemming from the Karabakh conflict currently obstruct alternatives to the Middle Corridor, which would pass through Armenia. Azerbaijan, in contrast, insists on strategic connections within its territory, such as the Zangezur Corridor. Georgia, with its close relations with the West and its stable political structure, holds an advantageous position in this equation. However, internal political tensions in Georgia and Russia’s presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are still seen as serious threats to the country’s long term security.
Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are striving to pursue a balancing act between China and Europe. These countries, while strengthening their economic ties with China, are also deepening cooperation with the European Union (EU) in areas such as energy, agriculture, and digital transformation. This bilateral strategy could make the region more resilient to external interventions. Efforts to become a new transit hub have the potential to transform not only the geopolitical spheres of influence but also the domestic economic structure of the region’s countries. Major infrastructure projects create local employment, contribute to the development of industrial zones, and increase their capacity to attract foreign investment. In Central Asian countries, particularly those with young populations, these investments can also encourage the skills development of the workforce. At the same time, increase in women’s participation in employment is also observed. This, in return, offers the potential to make regional development more inclusive.
For these developments to be sustainable, investments must be made not only in physical infrastructure but also in institutional infrastructure. Simplifying customs procedures, digitising border crossings, combating corruption, and developing regional cooperation mechanisms are critical for the region to become a reliable part of global trade. Türkiye’s position in this dynamics in Central Asia and the South Caucasus is also crucial. Both in terms of historical ties and current trade volume, Türkiye closely follows developments in the region and strives to play an active role. Collaborations through platforms such as the Organisation of Turkic States strengthen Türkiye’s influence in the Middle Corridor.
Ankara has assumed the role of a central hub for energy and logistics transportation along the east west axis through projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Pipeline and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP). Türkiye’s potential as a transit gateway for products from Asia, thanks to its customs union with the EU and its logistics infrastructure, is becoming increasingly significant. The integration of Central Asia and the South Caucasus into the global trade system also offers significant opportunities for regional peace and stability in the long term. Logistics and economic cooperation can pave the way for increased dialogue between countries with historically conflictual relations. However, this process must be supported by economic investments and by inclusive diplomacy, inclusive development, and governance reforms. As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues and global balances remain uncertain, the potential of Central Asia and the Caucasus to serve as a transit hub will only grow. However, the realisation of this potential depends not only on geostrategic location but also on strengthening the culture of regional cooperation and developing a shared resilience to external interventions.
