The Taliban, which took Kabul under its control on August 15, 2021 and gained dominance over the whole of Afghanistan after dominating the Panshir Valley, announced that it had established the “Interim Government of Afghanistan” on September 7, 2021. However, despite the year 2023, there is still no state or international organization that recognizes the Taliban administration. Although various states continue their humanitarian aid activities towards the country in order to prevent deepening of humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and de facto relations with the Taliban have developed in the context of investments, no concrete steps have been taken in terms of official recognition. Moreover, there is no indication that the Taliban will be able to overcome the recognition problem in the short term.
The international community has some expectations regarding the recognition of the Taliban. It is possible to express these expectations in three main points. The first is to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorist organizations and for the Taliban to fight terrorism. In this sense, it is known that the Taliban has carried out various operations to combat the so-called Khorasan Emirate (ISKP) of the terrorist organization State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). However, DAESH’s attacks against various targets, especially the Hazaras and foreign diplomatic missions, continue. In this sense, it is possible to state that ISKP threatens the regional security environment.
Moreover, given that regional states have developed de facto relations with the Taliban, it can be argued that the Taliban is seen as a reasonable partner in the fight against DAESH. However, when the United States of America (USA) announced on August 1, 2022 that it had killed the leader of the terrorist organization al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a drone strike in the diplomatic district of Kabul called Shir Pur, the issue of the Taliban’s relationship with al-Qaeda came to the fore and the international community’s criticism of the Taliban hardened.
The second demand is to make progress on human rights, especially women’s rights. The Taliban government, on the other hand, states that they constitute a Sharia order and respect the rights of women within the framework of Islamic criteria. However, it can be stated that restrictions on women’s right to education have affected the international community’s view of the Taliban.
The third expectation is the establishment of a government in Afghanistan in which all identity groups will be represented. This is because the Taliban is a Pashtun nationalist organization. As a matter of fact, it can be said that the Pashtun hegemony in the country, which was experienced during the old regimes, continues. Against the Pashtun hegemony, both opposition groups and the international community call for the establishment of an inclusive government. The Taliban, on the other hand, claim that their government is already inclusive.
While calls for dialogue in the context of the Afghan Problem have increased recently, it is seen that the issue that comes to the fore is the issue of inclusive government. In December 2022, in particular, this issue has become even more pressing.
As a matter of fact, on December 29, 2022, Former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai stated that the Taliban should start a process to establish an inclusive government and claimed that it is in the interest of all parties to start inter-Afghan talks.[1] It is possible to say that Karzai’s statements are important. It is known that Karzai took the initiative to ensure that the handover of the city’s administration was carried out in a healthy way when the Taliban arrived at the gates of Kabul, and in a sense, he played a key role in the transition period together with Abdullah Abdullah, the head of the Afghanistan National Reconciliation Council. That’s why Karzai has a certain weight, even though he is one of the Presidents of the deposed regime. This is why Karzai, like ousted President Ashraf Ghani, did not flee Afghanistan and chose to stay in the country. However, one of the main controversies in November 2022 was the Taliban’s refusal to allow Karzai to travel abroad.
The Taliban’s approach is motivated by the fact that Karzai was the first president during the occupation and therefore has important relations with Western diplomats and politicians. Therefore, the Taliban thought that Karzai’s messages from abroad could increase Western pressure. And so it has been. Because the aforementioned statements of Karzai are in the nature of a call to increase the pressure on the Taliban so that an inclusive government can be established at some point. But it is more than that. Because Karzai calls for dialogue at every opportunity. This can be characterized as a warning to the Panshir Movement, which is waging an armed struggle against the Taliban. In other words, Karzai is demanding a return to the dialog table rather than new conflicts in the country. Of course, this could also be interpreted as Karzai’s desire to once again assume the role of mediator that he assumed during the handover of Kabul and to consolidate his own political position.
At this point, it is necessary to discuss the question “What is meant by inclusive government and representation of all identity states?”. Likewise, the question “Are there any successful examples of systems based on ethnic representation?” should also be considered. This is because the claim of representation based on ethnic identity, which looks very democratic on paper and promises harmonious governance, in practice leads to increased ethnic and sectarian contradictions and conflicts. The frequent government crises in Iraq and Lebanon are concrete indicators of this. Essentially, the problem in Afghanistan is the problem of nationalization/ nation building. In fact, statement of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Joseph Borrell in August 2021, “We have failed in the nation-state building in Afghanistan.” 2 is also an admission of the situation in question.
On the other hand, the question “What kind of ethnic representation?” opens the door to federation discussions. Already in November 2022, many politicians from the ousted regime in Afghanistan, who were already voicing their opposition to the Taliban, proposed a federation as a solution to the Afghan problem. In the medium and long term, this proposal could open the door to process leading to the division of the country. Therefore, expecting the federation option to open the door to a healthy and peaceful order without a skillfully prepared constitutional model would be overly optimistic and disconnected from reality.
As a result, the Taliban have ruled Afghanistan since August 2021. But the problem of recognition of the Taliban leadership has not yet been resolved. Moreover, the pressure on the Taliban is increasing day by day. This in turn jeopardizes the sustainability of aid and investment in Afghanistan. In a sense, the international community is punishing the Afghan people, not the Taliban. Because with each passing day, the economic problems in the country are deepening and the level of welfare is decreasing. In this environment, the main proposal brought within the framework of the solution of the Afghan Question is shaped by the discourse of “inclusive government”. However, an order based on ethnic representation could deepen the identity-based divide and open the door to a new civil war that could lead to the division of the country.
[1] “کرزی: راهاندازی گفتگوی بینالافغانی به نفع طالبان و افغانستان است”, Dari Voa, darivoa.com/a/karzai-says-that-starting-intra-afghan-talks-is-in-the-interest-of-the-taliban-and-afghanistan/6894534.html, (Date of Accession: 31.12.2022).
2 “Josep Borrell: Afganistan’da Ulus Devlet İnşasında Başarısız Olduk”, Haber Türk, https://www.haberturk.com/josep-borrell-afganistan-da-ulus-devlet-insasinda-basarisiz-olduk-3167223, (Date of Accession: 31.12.2022).
