On February 10-11, 2026, United States Vice President James David Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan, during which critical agreements were signed in various fields ranging from energy and transportation to trade and strategic partnerships. The advancement of the US’s “Trump Route to International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)” plans in the South Caucasus, also known as the “Zangezur Corridor,” is influencing the balance of power in east-west and north-south international trade corridors. These economic corridors not only affect the economic, security, and foreign policy agendas of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, but also contribute to the heightened competition and alliances among major powers.
The desire of some foreign actors to expand their cooperation with Yerevan, seeking to benefit from the power vacuum created in Armenia by Russia’s declining influence, is noteworthy. In this respect, it is observed that actors such as the US, as well as France and India, have begun to actively participate in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus in line with Armenia’s foreign policy choices. The changes seen in Armenia’s foreign and security policies, including military cooperation and significant partnerships in defense industry trade with France and India after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, are causing the great power competition in the South Caucasus to deepen.
Armenia’s relations with both France and India have accelerated since 2022, becoming concrete, particularly through military collaborations. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan’s rise to strategic partnership status with Europe in the energy and transportation sectors, coupled with the active participation of India and China in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, has led to the emergence of multiple power dynamics and alliances in the region.
One of the most important factors to consider in this equation is the influence of neighboring actors such as Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the South Caucasus power balance. The positioning of these actors significantly impacts the South Caucasus policies of global powers, including the US, the European Union (EU), France, Greece, Israel, Pakistan, India, Central Asian countries, and China. For example, collaborations between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan can influence the formation of direct or indirect alliances or the implementation of joint projects between India, Armenia, and Greece.
On the other hand, the nearly twenty-five-year-long north-south transportation cooperation (INSTC) between Russia, Iran, and India has created a geopolitical convergence among these actors. Actors along this geopolitical axis have often tended to compete with those seeking to develop east-west corridors. In this context, the development of the Caspian transit Middle Corridor between the EU, Turkey, China, and Central Asian countries is a major factor in shaping global power competition.
China’s efforts to access the Caspian and South Caucasus via the Middle Corridor have subsequently become a significant factor influencing the approaches of the US, India, Iran, and Greece to the region. From this perspective, the positive relations established by the US with Armenia and Azerbaijan through TRIPP are largely seen as a factor limiting the presence of actors such as China, Russia, and Iran in the South Caucasus.
The balance of power in the South Caucasus is also influenced by the new geopolitical equation emerging in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. The geopolitical axis built through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) has become a significant factor shaping Armenia’s relations with both Greece and India. From a broader perspective, France, Greece, the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA), India, and Iran are positioned closer to Armenia in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
In terms of policies towards the South Caucasus, Israel’s position stands out, differing from many other actors. Geopolitically, Israel can work with both Russia and the US. Similarly, Tel Aviv can simultaneously develop partnerships with both Beijing and New Delhi. From the perspective of South Caucasus geopolitics, Israel maintains a stance close to Azerbaijan while cooperating with the US and positioning itself against Iran.
Alliances/blocs in the South Caucasus generally stem from certain actors who approach the region with a zero-sum game mentality. The most notable of these are: The US, India, and Iran. From a broader perspective, France and Greece can also be included. On the other hand, Turkey, after long efforts, has created a broadly participatory cooperation mechanism such as the 3+3 South Caucasus Regional Cooperation Platform, and has made significant contributions to the peace, security, and stability of the region with a win-win approach. With the US becoming more engaged in the South Caucasus, the danger of the spread of bloc thinking and the clarification of alliances in the region is emerging. Similar polarizations are felt in all the geographies targeted by the Trump administration. European countries, dissatisfied with Trump’s policies, are seen to be trying to compete more with the US in different geographies. In this respect, for example, France has recently been trying to expand its cooperation with Armenia. The US engagement in the region could cause a domino effect, leading to significant changes in the South Caucasus policies of France, Russia, India, Iran, and China. Ultimately, preventing these blocs will depend primarily on the collective efforts of regional states such as Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, as well as the policies pursued by neighboring actors like Türkiye, Russia, and Iran.
