In recent years, developments in the relationship between the United States (US) and Pakistan have led to significant shifts in both Middle Eastern and South Asian geopolitics. The impact of these changes has been felt across a broad geopolitical spectrum, particularly in Pakistan’s relations with Russia, China, India, the Gulf States, and the South Caucasus countries. In April and May 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump’s intervention in de-escalating the clashes between Pakistan and India in Kashmir resulted in a thaw and subsequent rapprochement in Islamabad-Washington relations. Regarding the issue, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that “Trump prevented a war in Asia,”[i]and in recognition of his efforts, Pakistan nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.[ii]
The effects of the rapprochement between Pakistan and the United States have also been observed in the de-escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the development of new defense alliances in the Middle East. Following Israel’s attacks in Qatar, one of the most debated issues after the Organization of Islamic Cooperation–Arab League Joint Summit held on September 15, 2025, was the creation of collective defense alliances in the Middle East. The first concrete step toward such cooperation materialized with the announcement of the “Joint Strategic Defense Agreement” between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on September 18, 2025.[iii] The establishment of a defense pact between the Gulf States, who became the United States’ key allies in the Middle East following the 2020 Abraham Accords, and Pakistan marked a major shift in regional geopolitics. Moreover, discussions have emerged suggesting that many other countries might join this alliance, potentially laying the groundwork for a collective defense pact in the Middle East.[iv] The formation of such alliances envisioning mutual defense among Muslim-majority countries could prompt major actors such as India, Russia, the United States, and China to reconsider their policies toward these states.
One of the most recent examples of U.S.–Pakistan cooperation has been the support given to Trump’s Gaza Plan. During the 80th United Nations General Assembly, Trump and his team shared the Gaza Plan with several Muslim countries, including Pakistan. Pakistani Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar stated that the 20-point Gaza Plan announced by Trump differed from the initial version that had been shared with them.[v] Seeking the support of Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in addition to Pakistan, Trump aimed to establish a lasting peace order in the Middle East. It is anticipated that, in order to overcome both current and potential difficulties in implementing the plan, the United States will increasingly rely on the support of close allies such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. However, Washington’s deepening cooperation with Islamabad could once again lead to a rapid transformation of the balance of power in both the Middle East and South Asia.
The foreign policy trajectory of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government was a subject of intense debate. Historically characterized by fluctuations, U.S.–Pakistan relations reached a particularly critical point during Khan’s tenure. The real turning point came when Imran Khan visited Russia, a move that drew considerable attention as it marked the first visit by a Pakistani Prime Minister to Moscow in 23 years. This visit, in many ways, signaled a geopolitical shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy orientation. Shortly thereafter, the Imran Khan government was ousted through a vote of no confidence in Parliament following tensions with the Pakistani military. The succeeding government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, has since made significant efforts to bring Pakistan’s foreign policy back on track.
Following its defeat in Afghanistan after 2021, the United States tended to blame Pakistan and consistently expressed concern over Islamabad’s growing closeness with China. During the Shehbaz Sharif government, Pakistan continued its cooperation with China while making efforts to maintain a balanced relationship with the West. Trump’s initiatives to de-escalate the recent clashes in Kashmir were warmly welcomed by Pakistan. India, on the other hand, was displeased with Trump’s persistent emphasis on this issue and his rapprochement with Pakistan. Historically, U.S.–Pakistan cooperation, particularly in the military sphere, has been a constant source of criticism from India. Unable to receive sufficient support from the United States in many areas of defense production, India has had to turn to Russia to meet its security needs. Therefore, the growing U.S. military support for Pakistan today is likely to negatively affect India’s strategic interests.
Pakistan’s growing efforts to restore its relations with the United States and strengthen its defense ties with the Gulf States in the Middle East could lead to significant disruptions in the geopolitical balance across Eurasia. This shift may directly affect Pakistan’s relations with its neighboring countries. The United States, seeking to re-establish a presence at the Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan, could initiate a new phase of extensive cooperation with Pakistan. Such a development would undoubtedly complicate the geopolitical landscape of South Asia once again. In particular, Pakistan, whose relations with its neighbor Iran have long been marked by fluctuations, may face difficulties in maintaining balance in these ties. If the United States aims to regain its position as an influential geopolitical actor in Afghanistan, it may seek to establish a long-term strategic partnership with Pakistan.
The tension between India and the United States, stemming from their differing positions on Russia and reflected in their trade relations, has played a significant role in reshaping geopolitical alignments. At the same time, Pakistan is also uncomfortable with the US’s cooperation with India. However, under the Trump administration, the political context in Washington shifted rapidly, and the cooling of India–U.S. relations paved the way for a rapprochement between Pakistan and the United States. In this new context, while India has sought closer ties with China and Russia by distancing itself from the U.S., Pakistan has found an opportunity to pursue a more balanced relationship with both Washington and Beijing. Nevertheless, maintaining equilibrium in its foreign policy has become increasingly difficult for Pakistan. Its defense partnership with Saudi Arabia and its cooperation with the U.S. in implementing the Gaza Plan could both push Pakistan toward a more “bloc-oriented” foreign policy approach. If the Western “Cold War mindset” and “bloc politics”, which is frequently criticized by China, begin to influence Pakistan’s foreign policy, this could have adverse effects on China–Pakistan relations as well. Therefore, Pakistan’s ability to sustain a balanced foreign policy stance will be crucial not only for its own stability but also for regional security.
[i] “Pakistani PM: Trump Prevented War in Asia”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/pakistani-pm-trump-prevented-war-in-asia/?lang=en, (Access Date. 06.10.2025).
[ii] “Pakistan, Trump’ı Nobel Barış Ödülü’ne aday gösterdi”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/pakistan-trump-i-nobel-baris-odulune-aday-gosterdi/3606568, (Access Date. 06.10.2025).
[iii] “Saudi-Pakistan defense pact: A historic strategic alliance”, Arab News, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2615833, (Access Date. 06.10.2025).
[iv] “If more nations join Saudi-Pakistan defence pact, it will become NATO-like alliance: Ishaq Dar”, The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/if-more-nations-join-saudi-pakistan-defence-pact-it-will-become-nato-like-alliance-ishaq-dar/articleshow/124294941.cms?from=mdr, Access Date. 06.10.2025).
[v] “’Not ours’: Pakistan FM Ishaq Dar distances from Donald Trump’s Gaza plan; claims ‘changes made to our draft’”, Times of India, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/not-ours-pakistan-fm-ishaq-dar-distances-from-trumps-gaza-plan-claims-changes-made-to-our-draft/articleshow/124292502.cms, (Access Date: 06.10.2025).
