Although the Russia-Ukraine War and the associated negotiation process have largely remained in the shadow of developments in the Middle East—particularly the Gaza/Palestine-Israel and Syria issues—the ongoing exchanges and claims between Russia, Europe, and NATO have once again drawn attention to the negotiation table. Otherwise, it seems inevitable that the crises along Russia’s Western and Southern borders, particularly in the Northern Countries-Baltics-Black Sea-Caucasus axis, could expand and deepen further. This scenario points directly to the new geopolitical environment desired by the “war lobby,” which seeks the continuation of this conflict.
Russia is clearly aware of this. As reported in recent news on Sputnik: “The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is reportedly angered by the UK government’s long-standing efforts to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia failing, and is preparing a new provocation.”[i]
Thus, two possibilities emerge: either a negotiation/peace table will be established, or the geography and intensity of the war will continue to expand.
Under the current circumstances, the global community has largely lost hope for a return to peace in the Russia-Ukraine War, which is rapidly approaching its third year. The primary reason is that both Russia and Ukraine have largely lost the initiative, both in the context of the war and potential peace negotiations.
Moreover, the European Union—heavily affected by the war and increasingly anxious about seeing “Russian tanks” near its borders—remains a relatively powerless actor in this process. The United Kingdom, however, occupies a different position. Once again, it is seeking to act as a “balancer of the balance,” viewing this crisis/war as a strategic opportunity.
The Alaska Summit in the Negotiation Process: “Proceed or Pause?”
Consequently, the resolution of this deadlock could primarily involve the U.S. and Russia. Two approaches are possible here: the first involves normalizing relations between the U.S. and Russia and ending the war based on the resulting agreement or understanding. In this context, the “Alaska Summit” initiated under Trump—where Russia was given prominence—stands out as an important starting point and a potential turning point, albeit one without immediate follow-up. The second approach would return to the initial model, namely the Istanbul negotiation process. This also corresponds to Trump’s leverage against Putin, akin to returning to the pre-Alaska situation.
Russia is certainly aware of this as well. Kremlin statements confirm the point. On September 12, 2025, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated: “Our negotiators have channels to communicate. However, we believe it is more accurate to say that a pause has been called for the time being.”[ii] In subsequent days, Putin expressed openness to negotiations and emphasized hopes that the process would continue in cooperation with the U.S., particularly with President Trump.[iii]
These statements undoubtedly carry a message to third parties, including Türkiye: the implication being, “We are currently closed to negotiations outside the U.S.; we are not considering any address other than Moscow.”
Up to a point, the Kremlin’s position is not entirely unjustified. Prior to the Alaska Summit, Trump’s stance appeared to develop an initiative with Putin in the Russia-Ukraine War, seemingly excluding Ukraine and Europe. The Summit took place within this atmosphere. It is highly likely that a new phase with greater clarity between the U.S. and Russia was agreed upon in Moscow. Within this framework, a ceasefire process more favorable to Russia and the associated conditions were clarified. Trump reportedly discussed this with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House.
However, the subsequent follow-up in the Oval Office did not materialize. Currently, Russia and Ukraine—both unwilling to compromise on their positions—have escalated preparations for a protracted war, leading to intensified clashes.
From Alaska to the Paper Tiger…
Here, the Kremlin has overlooked a critical point: it remains fixated on the Alaska Summit, yet much has transpired since then. Milestones for a new phase are being established, and at this stage, the positions of both countries as outlined at the Alaska Summit have become more ambiguous.
It is enough to recall Trump’s assessment of the SCO Summit in China and the leaders’ photo in Tianjin, as well as the recent meetings between Erdoğan and Trump under the shadow of the “TRÇ Alliance” narrative. The European factor and other aspects are, in my view, secondary. While Russia attempted to raise the stakes via the Alaska Summit, Trump has increasingly felt compelled to apply brakes in light of recent developments.
Trump now approaches Putin’s Moscow invitation more cautiously. While he had previously given Russia the green light on Ukraine, he now appears to be pursuing a strategy aimed at further weakening Russia. By shifting the focus back toward Ukraine and Europe, Trump seems to be attempting to steer Putin toward a negotiation/peace process under conditions more favorable to the U.S., ultimately aiming for normalization with Washington.
For this reason, Trump now advocates a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin and has expressed willingness to participate if desired. Previously, Trump had effectively sidelined Zelensky. This time, the stakes have been raised by Trump, and it appears that Moscow is no longer a likely stop on Air Force One’s route.
The “Istanbul Summit” Is Inevitable: The Peace Table Remains Ready
Given these dynamics, the Kremlin’s pause in negotiations requires careful consideration regarding its feasibility and sustainability. Currently, the initiative to restart the negotiation process seems largely in the Kremlin’s hands. Putin has repeatedly stated that the “strategic initiative lies with the Russian army.”[iv] Yet tomorrow, circumstances could shift dramatically, and even if Moscow wishes to proceed—and Türkiye makes significant efforts—the negotiation/peace table may not be easily established.
For this reason, Türkiye’s persistent approach from the outset—to facilitate the cessation of the conflict between the two states—gains renewed significance. In this context, the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia is ready to conduct the third round of negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul assumes particular importance. Ukraine has repeatedly confirmed its readiness for talks in Istanbul, while a significant portion of the U.S. and European countries support the resumption of negotiations. Türkiye also continues to assert its desire to be actively involved in this process.[v] Türkiye is ready; the negotiation/peace table in Istanbul remains set.
[i] “Rus istihbaratı: Rusya’ya stratejik yenilgi yaşatmakta başarısız olan Londra, yeni bir provokasyon hazırlıyor”, Sputnik Türkiye, https://x.com/sputnik_TR/status/1975180488777363796, (Date of Access: 07.10.2025)
[ii] “Kremlin: Rusya-Ukrayna barış görüşmelerine ara verildi”, Independent Türkçe, https://www.indyturk.com/node/764718/haber/kremlin-rusya-ukrayna-bar%C4%B1%C5%9F-g%C3%B6r%C3%BC%C5%9Fmelerine-ara-verildi, (Date of Access: 07.10.2025)
[iii] “Trump: “Türkiye, Zelenskiy ile Putin’i Müzakere Masasına Oturtabilir”, UKR Haber,https://www.ukrhaber.com/blog/trump-turkiye-zelenskiy-ile-putini-muzakere-masasina-oturtabilir/, (Date of Access: 07.10.2025)
[iv] “Stratejik inisiyatif Rus ordusunda”, Habertürk, https://www.haberturk.com/stratejik-inisiyatif-rus-ordusunda-3828392, (Date of Access: 07.10.2025)
[v] “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Rusya Devlet Başkanı Putin’le telefonda görüştü”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-rusya-devlet-baskani-putin-ile-telefonda-gorustu/3710154, (Date of Access: 07.10.2025)
