Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector has shown a notable shift in the regional energy landscape in recent months. Cooperation agreements signed with Guyana, the reopening of the Georgetown Embassy, and the launch of direct flights indicate this country’s pursuit of becoming an increasingly influential actor in the energy equation in northeastern South America. Meanwhile, the suspension of direct gas supplies from Venezuela due to US sanctions during the same period has created serious gaps in Colombia’s energy security strategy. This dual dynamic has signaled a potential gas shortage that the country may face as it approaches 2026.
The decline in oil and gas investments in Colombia has pushed the sector to seek alternative markets. In this context, the memorandum of understanding signed between the Colombian Chamber of Petroleum, Gas, and Energy Goods and Services (Campetrol) and the Guyana Oil and Gas Energy Chamber (GOGEC) has been a critical step.[i] The agreement has created a broad area of cooperation between the two countries, covering technology sharing, joint exploration and production projects, and energy trade. In addition, commercial meetings organized by ProColombia and Avianca’s direct flights between Bogota and Georgetown have strengthened economic and logistical ties.
This rapprochement has not only been an economic move for Colombia, but also a geopolitical one. Guyana has become a rising star in the international energy market thanks to the large offshore oil reserves it has discovered in recent years. By getting involved early in this potential, Colombia has directed both its investors and exporters toward new opportunities. Thus, the country’s role in the regional energy network has diversified.
Although the bridge established with Guyana is important for Colombia, Venezuela remains the closest and cheapest source of gas. However, this potential is frozen due to sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) under the US Treasury Department. Any financial transactions with companies such as the Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA) and Pequiven are prohibited by Washington.
Ecopetrol Board Chair Monica de Greiff’s statement that “no direct gas will come from Venezuela” underscored this deadlock.[ii] In fact, in July, Minister of Mines and Energy Edwin Palma had spoken optimistically about cooperation, and even a confidentiality agreement was signed for Monómeros, a subsidiary of Pequiven. However, this initiative fell through due to international restrictions.
Colombia has not invested sufficiently in domestic gas exploration activities for many years. Moreover, the government’s carbon neutrality targets and energy transition vision have limited new permits for fossil fuels. This situation has raised the risk of a supply gap of up to 20% by 2026. Industry associations and consumer groups have projected that such a shortfall could cause economic disruption across a wide spectrum, from industrial production to household consumption.
In the short term, natural gas has become a critical bridge fuel for the sustainability of the energy transition. However, both the decline in domestic production and the sidelining of Venezuela—the most suitable external source—due to sanctions have weakened the feasibility of this strategy. As a result, Colombia has been forced to revise its energy policies.
The Colombia–Guyana partnership has also influenced regional power dynamics. Considering Brazil’s massive energy projects in South America, Venezuela’s resource wealth, and the Caribbean’s LNG trade, Colombia’s northeast-oriented strategy has been noteworthy. This move has also served as a critical test in relations with the United States. Washington has expected the strict continuation of sanctions on Venezuela, while Colombia has been compelled to take pragmatic steps for its energy security.
It is also worth noting the strategic importance Guyana has gained in this process. Despite its small population, the country possesses vast oil reserves that have attracted the attention of global actors such as the United States and China. Colombia’s early entry into this market has yielded long-term commercial and political benefits.
As 2026 approaches, three main scenarios have emerged for Colombia. First, if the United States were to ease its restrictions on Venezuela partially, Colombia could quickly activate low-cost gas imports; in this scenario, the renewal of existing infrastructure and the preparation of long-term contracts would be critical. Second, if sanctions were to remain in place, the country would have to deepen its cooperation with Guyana and increase LNG imports; this approach has raised costs but preserved supply security in the short term. Third, the government would be compelled to re-stimulate domestic gas exploration while accelerating renewable energy investments, thereby balancing both environmental goals and energy security in the medium term.
In light of these possibilities, Colombia’s decision-making process has not only been an economic test but also a diplomatic one. On the one hand, the country has sought to diversify its regional partnerships to secure energy supply, while on the other hand, it has had to tread carefully to avoid jeopardizing its strategic relations with the United States. Industrial circles have emphasized the need for a strong domestic production policy for long-term energy security, as well as flexible agreements in international markets. The public, meanwhile, has demanded that the government follow a balanced roadmap that considers both its environmental commitments and the energy costs of the people. Thus, Colombia has sought to manage its goals of economic growth, diplomatic balance, and sustainability simultaneously.
Colombia’s energy future has been shaped at the intersection of both domestic and foreign policy moves. The new bridge established with Guyana has strengthened the country’s regional role. However, the shadow of sanctions on Venezuela has deepened the fragility of energy supply. When combined with insufficient domestic production, the limits of energy transition goals, and international geopolitical pressures, Colombia’s energy dossier presents a complex picture as 2026 approaches.
Finally, in order to overcome this complex situation, Colombia would need to enhance its diplomatic maneuverability, expand energy diversification, and seek more flexible negotiation channels on the international stage. Otherwise, the country could enter 2026 facing a critical supply gap and the risk of economic disruption. Therefore, the Bogotá administration has had to deepen cooperation with Guyana while simultaneously accelerating domestic production and renewable energy investments. Energy security has ceased to be merely an economic issue, becoming a strategic imperative intertwined with foreign policy, environmental policy, and regional diplomacy.
[i] Ruiz, Luis Alejandro, “Colombia Strengthens Energy Ties with Guyana While Obstacles Due to Sanctions for Agreements with Venezuela Persist”, Guacamaya, www.guacamaya.com/colombia-guyana-energy, (Date Accessed: 28.09.2025).
[ii] Ibid.
