South Asia has been the scene of conflicts and foreign interventions for nearly 40 years. This situation disrupts the development and improvement process in the region and leads to the transformation of South Asia into a geography of crisis and threat. In particular, the rivalries of global and regional powers in the region and their use of various groups as proxy actors in this context have led to the deepening and expansion of instability and threats.
Looking at the important actors in the region, Pakistan and India are the most talked about and prominent states within the scope of Afghanistan-based threat sources. On the other hand, the United States (US) and China are states that are outside the region, but are politically, economically and security-oriented in the region. In this context, it is possible to talk about a variable geopolitical equation in South Asia.
Pakistan, which had close relations with the West until the 2010s, has become closer to China since this process. However, while India has been supporting the actors who have been positioned against the Taliban and Pakistan for a long time, various negotiations are currently being held between New Delhi and the Taliban. However, despite supporting the Taliban for a long time, Pakistan has had some disagreements with the Taliban due to the Taliban’s contact with New Delhi and the issue of the Durand Line.
China, on the other hand, has established strong ties with Pakistan and developed various relations with the Taliban in order to implement the Belt and Road Project, expand its sphere of influence and lessen the effect of the US and India in the region.
When we look at the statements and policies of the US, China, India and, where necessary, Russia towards the region, it is seen that they are fundamentally disturbed by the radical movements and organizations in the region. At this point, Pakistan draws attention as an important ally in order to combat these threats. The Islamabad administration is one of the actors who are experiencing difficulties due to terrorist attacks in the region.
The dynamics in South Asia, where one of the most recent examples of Machiavellian foreign policy is experienced, are determined by interests and threats. Therefore, the Washington administration wants to increase its influence in South Asia for various reasons. The US, which withdrew from Afghanistan, has turned into an ineffective actor in a significant part of South Asia, Central Asia, the south of Russia, the east of the Caspian Sea and the west of China.
India is among the countries closest to the West in the region. However, New Delhi is surrounded by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which Islamabad and Beijing plan to implement. Therefore, although New Delhi is an important power, the gains it can make to the US due to geopolitical containment are limited. Therefore, the US wants to strengthen its relations with Pakistan.
One of the reasons for Washington’s pivot towards Islamabad is its desire to balance Pakistan-China relations. Pakistan is critical because of its geopolitical position, allowing China to reach the Middle East, Africa and the Indian Ocean safely under CPEC. This makes Pakistan an actor that will break the pressure that the West wants to exert on China in the Asia-Pacific.
On the other hand, Russia is trying to strengthen its relations with Pakistan in the context of its policy of both going south and turning to new energy markets. This will allow both Russia to breathe economically and Pakistan to act more autonomously. This will open the door to an erosion of Western influence over the Islamabad administration.
On the other hand, the US is conducting various negotiations with Pakistan and trying to strengthen relations. One of the events to this end is the second round of the Pakistan-US Inter-Level Defence Dialogue from 12 to 16 February 2023. Delegations of the parties include senior officials from the ministries of foreign affairs, the military and the undersecretariat of defense. For example, the Pakistani delegation is headed by Lieutenant General Mohammad Saeed. In this process, Islamabad attaches importance to bilateral security and defense cooperation, while Washington states that it has common interests with Pakistan in the fight against terrorism.[1]
On the other hand, another high-level visit from the US to Pakistan is being carried out. US Undersecretary of State Derek Cholleti will visit Bangladesh and Pakistan between 14-18 February 2023. The aim of the US during the visit to Pakistan is to reaffirm strong security cooperation[2] and repair relations that deteriorated during the time of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in power.[3]
It is important for both Pakistan and the United States that these talks take place at a time when the attacks of the terrorist organization Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are increasing. On this occasion, the Islamabad administration will be able to get the support of the West against the TTP. Washington, on the other hand, will be able to fight the terrorist organization, which it also considers a terrorist organization, and will maintain its influence in the region.
As a result, it is seen that the interest shown by the US in Pakistan has increased recently. It is especially important that this happens at a time when Khan is moving away from the administration and Shehbaz Sharif is coming to power. The US is using Pakistan’s concerns about national and regional security as a tool to increase its influence. Despite this, it is known that the TTP is considered a terrorist organization by the US. For this reason, while the US aims to strengthen its relations with Pakistan within the scope of security through the discourse of fighting terrorism, it is also trying to make relations more comprehensive and to reinforce its diminished influence in South Asia with the discourse of common interests.
[1] “US, Pakistan Talks to Enhance Defence Ties”, DAWN, https://www.dawn.com/news/1737054/us-pakistan-talks-to-enhance-defence-ties, (Date of Accession: 15.02.2023).
[2] “US Seeks a Strong Partnership with Pakistan on Counterterrorism: Official”, Business Standard, https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/us-seeks-a-strong-partnership-with-pakistan-on-counterterrorism-official-123021400709_1.html, (Date of Accession: 15.02.2023).
[3] Kanishka Singh, “U.S. Delegation to Visit Pakistan as Two Sides Seek to Repair Ties”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-delegation-visit-pakistan-two-sides-seek-repair-ties-2023-02-13/, (Date of Accession: 15.02.2023).
