As one year of the Russian-Ukrainian War, which started on February 24, 2022, is about to end, issues related to the post-war period are occupying Ukraine’s diplomatic agenda. With the recent ammunition supplies to Ukraine, the leaders of the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states have been visiting Ukraine to show their support on the border. This has brought the debate on the EU and NATO membership of the country back to the forefront.
Indeed, the traffic of visits that started with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson continued with the visit of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen to Kiev. [1] The aid provided by the EU countries during the war is gratefully welcomed by the Ukrainian people. In this process, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski, who has rolled up his sleeves for EU membership, has been making efforts to meet the Copenhagen Criteria. Zelenski, who was given the green light for the membership process in his meeting with Leyen, expected the process to be completed in a moderate manner, but Leyen emphasized that the process would continue without any acceleration. [2]
It will not be easy for Ukraine to meet the Copenhagen Criteria for countries seeking EU membership during the war. Although diplomatic visits and incentives continue to ensure the continuity of this process, Kiev still has a long way to go. Zelenski, on the other hand, seems determined to preserve his leadership figure, strengthen his political position and implement policies that can meet the EU’s expectations. This determination can be seen in the corruption probe he has recently launched. In an effort to reform the system to meet the EU’s criteria, Zelenski aims to restructure corrupt institutions. [3]
In short, what Ukraine is trying to do in the context of EU membership is to turn the war into an opportunity without losing the support of its allies. Because in terms of the conjuncture, the West is on Kiev’s side. Therefore, the Zelenski administration sees the intensification of diplomatic contacts as an opportunity for the post-war environment. It can be argued that Ukraine has fulfilled its responsibility towards the EU countries on the frontline. The aid that reaches Europe through the EU and NATO distances Europe from the Russian threat.
On the other hand, the energy crisis and the refugee problem have been threatening EU countries since the first day of the war. The EU, which is very sensitive to border security, wants the process to be overcome with the least damage. In this regard, the West has certain expectations regarding Ukraine. However, the dependence of countries such as Germany, which is the dynamo of the EU economy, on Russian energy can be characterized as the most important challenge for Kiev.
In addition to all these, the threats of Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the use of nuclear weapons and Ukraine’s proximity to the EU border mean that this country is also fighting for the interests of the EU at the front. This is the reason why both military aid and Leyen gave the green light to Ukraine’s membership.
Through these visits, the Kyiv government has the opportunity to convey information to the international community and increase the number of its allies. Similarly, Zelensky’s visits abroad serve the same purpose. However, there are also reactions from other members and candidates against Ukraine, which believes that the accession process should be fast-tracked. [4] As a reflection of this, Leyen informed on February 3, 2023 that the process would not be accelerated. This is because Ukraine has set a target of achieving EU membership in two years and shared it with the public. However, when the past membership processes are taken into consideration, it is obvious that this situation does not seem very possible.
It includes many activities such as ensuring the criteria for the membership process, examining the internal regulations of the candidate state, ensuring state equivalence and economic balance. Enlargement and opening up processes are also determined by the EU and organized in line with the work of all candidate countries. For example, countries such as the Czech Republic, Estonia and Hungary, which joined the EU in 2004, were accepted for membership after a six-year process that started in 1998. For this reason, the countries warned the EU delegation and recommended that they be notified accordingly.
When the EU’s membership conditions are analyzed, the inclusion of a country without territorial integrity and at war in the membership process is also a controversial issue. The condition of “good neighborly relations”, which the EU applies and emphasizes in the Balkan countries in line with its criteria, may also disqualify Ukraine from being a candidate country in this context. Ukraine’s efforts in this process, such as the fight against corruption, remain weak due to the war conditions.
A stable and orderly economy, peaceful diplomacy and regular social life criteria are not a membership condition that Ukraine can provide due to the ongoing war. [5]It is also a fact that the EU, which tries to remove the Russian threat by putting Ukraine in a buffer position, will border Russia with Ukraine’s membership.
As a result, while the war is in full swing, Ukraine continues its diplomacy on EU and NATO membership and takes some steps in line with the Copenhagen Criteria to be met for EU membership. As the war is about to enter its second year, making these arrangements to join the union reflects Zelensky’s desire to make the best use of the crisis. However, it should be noted that membership will not be possible due to the fact that the country is at war. Leyen has already clearly stated that the process will not be accelerated.
[1] “EU Pledges to Double Military Aid Programme for Ukraine”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/eu-pledges-to-double-military-aid-programme-for-ukraine, (Date of Accession: 04.02.2023).
[2] “Ukraine EU Membership: No Short Cuts on Joining, Officials Warn Ahead of Summit”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64492102, (Date of Accession: 04.02.2023).
[3] “Ukraine’s Fight Against Corruption Isn’t New. It’s Still Trying”, NPR, https://www.npr.org/2023/01/27/1151326940/ukraine-anti-corruption-efforts, (Date of Accession: 04.02.2023).
[4] “Ukraine EU membership: No short Cuts on Joining, Officials Warn Ahead of Summit”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64492102, (Date of Accession: 04.02.2023).
[5] “Conditions for Membership”, European Comission, https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/conditions-membership_en, (Date of Accession: 04.02.2023).
