Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), stated on November 27, 2023, that “there is no other option for the West but to assist Ukraine, and Ukraine will decide on the conditions for joining NATO.”[1] Speaking about NATO’s support for Ukraine, Stoltenberg used the following expressions:[2]
““We have no other alternative. Allowing Putin to win is a tragedy for Ukraine and a danger for us. Despite the lack of progress, success, or territorial gains in the war, we must continue to support Ukraine. It is Ukraine’s duty to decide what conditions they are willing to accept. Supporting Ukraine is our responsibility, and we are doing exactly that.”
Since the Russian invasion, the United States has provided Ukraine with over $40 billion in security assistance. During his visit to Kiev on November 20, 2023, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that they would continue to support Ukraine for a longer period.[3] However, radical Republicans in the U.S. continue to criticize U.S. aid to Ukraine, and the Biden administration struggles to secure additional budget approval for Ukraine from the U.S. Congress. The Biden administration is attempting to sustain this support at least until the 2024 Presidential Elections by using the Pentagon’s budget.
During this process, discussions about Ukraine’s NATO membership are ongoing. Allies are in agreement that Ukraine will eventually become a NATO member. However, it is known that full membership in the midst of the war is impossible.[4] Therefore, persuading Ukraine to engage in negotiations with Russia seems like an option. Ukraine, however, views sitting at the negotiation table without regaining its entire territory as a definite defeat.
From the Western perspective, the easiest way to defend Ukraine is to facilitate a peace agreement with Russia and then admit Ukraine to NATO. Both the U.S. and Germany remain reluctant to support Ukraine’s rapid NATO membership, pressuring for a process based on conditions rather than political motives.[5] [6] This implies that Ukraine will need to undergo a series of military reforms even if the war ends.
Despite differences in opinions about the process, the “Membership Action Plan for Ukraine” was signed on November 29, 2023. This document specifically outlines the reforms Ukraine needs to undertake for NATO membership. However, discussions about Ukraine’s membership will only be possible when these listed conditions are met. Therefore, discussing Ukraine’s NATO membership at the current stage will likely remain a political debate.
If the war ends and Ukraine fulfills all the specified conditions, NATO members will need to unanimously accept Ukraine. This is recognized as a challenging process, and Ukraine’s NATO membership could take several years. One notable point is the claim made by Germany’s BILD newspaper on November 24, 2023. The headline suggests that the U.S. and Germany are planning to force negotiations by cutting off arms supplies to Ukraine.[7] Allegedly, these two countries, while publicly expressing full support for Ukraine, are secretly planning to convince Ukraine to engage in talks with Russia to freeze the current front lines of the war.[8] At this point, both the U.S. and Germany may believe that Ukraine’s counterattack is likely to fail, and this strategy is unsustainable.
Germany and the U.S. may think that Russia has been taught a sufficient lesson, and sitting at the table at this deadlock in the war is a more reasonable option. The future of Ukraine depends significantly on the military aid from NATO countries, especially the U.S. The U.S. may be realizing that Ukraine has been dragged further into the quagmire at this point. Convincing Ukraine to make peace with Russia seems like an easy way out for the U.S. At the same time, initiating Ukraine’s NATO membership process could be possible.
[1] “NATO Chief Says ‘No Alternative’ to Helping Ukraine Stop Putin”, Kyiv Post, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24731, (Accessed: 28.11.2023).
[2] Same source.
[3] “Pentagon Chief Tells Zelensky US Backs Ukraine for The ‘Long Haul’”, France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231120-pentagon-chief-tells-zelensky-us-backs-ukraine-for-the-long-haul, (Accessed: 28.11.2023).
[4] “Ukraine Will Join Nato After War, Stoltenberg Says; Estimates Of 1,000 Russian Daily Casualties ‘Plausible’, Says UK – As İt Happened”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/27/russia-ukraine-war-live-russians-scavenge-air-defence-from-kaliningrad-says-uk-mod?page=with%3Ablock-656479418f082789f67479b4, (Accessed: 28.11.2023).
[5] “US, Germany Remain Reluctant To Support Quick Ukraine NATO Accession”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/us-germany-remain-reluctant-to-support-quick-ukraine-nato-accession/, (Accessed: 28.11.2023).
[6] Same source.
[7] “US and Germany ‘Plan To Force Zelenskyy To Negotiate’ Through Choking Off Arms Supplies – BILD”, Yahoo, https://news.yahoo.com/us-germany-plan-force-zelenskyy-170600495.html, (Accessed: 25.11.2023).
[8] “Bild: US, Germany Quietly Seek To Prod Ukraine To Negotiate”, Kyiv Independent, https://kyivindependent.com/bild-us-germany-allegedly-seek-to-prod-ukraine-to-negotiate/, (Accessed: 25.11.2023).
