The United States (US) Department of Defense (Pentagon) published a report on November 29, 2022, in which China’s military power and equipment were analyzed. The report has a total of 195 pages; it includes information such as China’s military strength, equipment information, and nuclear capacity. At the same time, Beijing’s military growth rate was also examined in every aspect and future projections were included in the report.[1] This report is published annually by the Pentagon and aims to support the decision-making mechanisms of the US.
As will be remembered, after the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, the security environment in the region became fragile and it came to the fore that China might intervene in Taiwan. After the visit, China’s many exercises around the island and US President Joe Biden’s commitment to protecting Taiwan in case of possible intervention increased. This situation has brought to mind the questions of how sustainable the potential conflict is for the parties and how destructive it will be for the global system. The field capacity of the army is not fully known, especially due to the lack of experience in hot conflicts of the Chinese Army. It is also important that the scope of the report is so broad in a year when the relations between the parties were so tense and unpredictable.
It is seen that China has tried to modernize its army in recent years. In the report, it is stated that Beijing plans to complete this modernization by 2027. This can be interpreted as Beijing will not try to connect the island to fore mainland for at least five years. However, in addition to this, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s exceptional taking leave of the third term and his desire to spend this term memorably and notably contrasts with this situation.
Considering all these, it can be argued that Xi may attempt an early intervention before the modernization of the army is fully completed to receive the title of “unifying president.” If such a scenario occurs, the modernization process of the Chinese Army may be interrupted.
However, if military capacity and army equipment are not deemed sufficient for such an attack, Xi may choose to accelerate army modernization in line with the same goal. In such a case, the modernization process of the army may be completed earlier than anticipated in the Pentagon report.
In addition to all these, it is stated in the report that China aims to rebuild the “Greater Chinese Civilization” by 2049. 2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of China. For this reason, the year 2049 may be a critical target for China to assume the role of the leading actor of a new and revisionist international system, in which it replaces the Western-based global order with its own rules. However, this date may also be later than expected for Beijing’s target in question. Because it is estimated that Xi does not intend to tolerate the current status quo more. For this reason, it can be argued that China will act hastily both at the point of completing the army modernization and building the Greater Chinese Civilization and therefore it will try to achieve its goals faster than the dates envisaged in the report.
However, another point that draws attention in the report is the emphasis on China’s nuclear power. The report says Beijing has serious nuclear ambitions within the next ten years. These are the modernization, diversification, and expansion of the country’s nuclear power. At this point, it can be said that the next ten years will be the most accelerated development process for China in nuclear terms. Beijing is making significant investments in line with its goal of increasing its nuclear centers focused on both sea, land, and air. In addition, China is accelerating its infrastructure works.
At the same time, the report estimated that China’s nuclear warheads exceeded 400. If progress continues at this rate, it is said that China will have around 1500 nuclear warheads by 2035. It can be said that the situation creates a serious security concern for both global security and US hegemony. The world is faced with a serious nuclear threat because Russian President Vladimir Putin frequently voiced the nuclear threat during the Ukraine War and North Korea’s dozens of ballistic missile tests in 2022. The rapid increase in Beijing’s nuclear power also raises many concerns for global actors.
Last but not least, in the report, it was stated that the only actor capable of competing with the power of the US and challenging the global order is China. In the report, this emphasis on China’s growing military power is important in terms of Washington’s clear acceptance of competition and the determination that other actors trying to enter the global power struggle are not at the same level. The US-China rivalry, which is called “Cold War 2.0” by many, even though it was rejected by Biden, was accepted by Washington on the report.
[1] “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”, U.S. Department of Defense, https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23321290/2022-military-and-security-developments-involving-the-peoples-republic-of-china.pdf, (Date of Accession: 07.12.2022).
