North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Amur region on September 12, 2023. Military cooperation was widely discussed in the talks, which senior generals from North Korea and Russia also attended. According to the US claim, Russia has put the transfer of weapons from North Korea on the agenda due to the losses it suffered in the war in Ukraine.[1] The Kim-Putin meeting is estimated to have mainly focused on arms transfers, military exercises, and defense cooperation.
North Korea, a closed state, is trying to become a self-sufficient power in the field of defense. In this context, since Pyongyang lacks experience in maritime, space technology, and nuclear-powered military equipment, it may choose to purchase them from Moscow. In exchange, Russia may have requested from North Korea surface-to-air missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, intelligence equipment, and armored and logistics vehicles, of which Russia suffered the greatest losses in the war in Ukraine and, therefore, which it needed. As a reminder, Russia has been waiting for China’s help with military equipment for a year. However, China refrained from granting it to Russia because it feared American sanctions.
Russia, which cannot receive the expected support from China, may now have turned to North Korea. We can talk about some scenarios here. First, China can use North Korea as a bridge to send military equipment to Russia to avoid Western sanctions. Secondly, China may have offered Russia to cooperate with North Korea on this issue. In other words, Beijing may have told Moscow that it could not provide military aid and that Pyongyang could help instead. Thirdly, Russia may have turned to North Korea because it failed to find the military support it sought from China. Each possibility has a common outcome: these three countries can develop a military alliance in the Asia-Pacific.
First of all, Russia is estimated to have sought military aid from China and North Korea due to the losses it suffered in the war in Ukraine. Russia has focused on China for a long time. On the other hand, under intense pressure of sanctions from the West, North Korea has nothing left to lose. Likewise, Russia no longer has much to lose in the context of the war in Ukraine. [2] Two actors with nothing left to lose come together based on common interests.
Furthermore, North Korea finds it appealing to receive help from Russia in nuclear and space technology because “anti-Westernism” is very strong in both countries. North Korea is estimated to have requested assistance from Russia in these areas and has discussed cooperation in several areas, including military exercises. Indeed, Moscow does not easily share its military, space, and nuclear technologies, even with its leading partner, Beijing. Because Beijing is making copies through reverse engineering, North Korea will attempt to produce them by similarly copying them. Therefore, the West will actually focus on the technology that Russia can provide to North Korea rather than the weapons that will be provided to Russia by North Korea.
The nature of North Korea-China relations is very different from Russia’s ties with that country. Beijing generally tries to keep its relations with Pyongyang balanced. Nevertheless, Moscow’s growing interest in Pyongyang could change Beijing’s perspective. China may not want to stay out of this Russia-North Korea equation. On the other hand, China may view the relations between these two actors as reactive-competitive. In any case, cooperation or competition may arise between these actors in the defense industry and other military fields.
At all events, a relationship of mutual dependence is emerging between North Korea and Russia. Putin’s agreement to travel to North Korea is an indication of this. Moscow may try to establish the partnership with Pyongyang that it failed to establish with Beijing. China may not be enthusiastic about the military partnership between Russia and North Korea, fearing it could lead to global polarization because China is exposed to increasing pressure from the West due to North Korea’s aggressive actions. That is why Beijing is making calls to restrain Pyongyang. [3]
As a result, we can see that new alliances are beginning to be established in the Asia-Pacific. The military cooperation between Russia and North Korea may subsequently mobilize the United States and its allies. China may remain the only actor advocating multilateralism in the Asia-Pacific. In this context, it may refrain from participating in the partnership between Russia and North Korea because this would mean polarization. As the world divides into two poles, China could choose to stay out of it because, operating from a multipolarity perspective, China follows a very different path from Russia and North Korea, which tend to polarize.
[1] “Kim Jong-un and Putin Plan to Meet in Russia to Discuss Weapons”, Ny Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/04/us/politics/putin-kim-meeting-russia-north-korea-weapons.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 16.09.2023).
[2] “Nothing Left To Lose’: Putin Embraces Role Of Spoiler With Kim Jong-Un Summit”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/nothing-left-to-lose-putin-embraces-role-of-spoiler-with-kim-jong-un-summit, (Erişim Tarihi: 16.09.2023).
[3] “Xi Tells Kim China Wants To Work With North Korea For Peace: KCNA”, Al Jazeraa, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/26/xi-tells-kim-china-wants-to-work-with-n-korea-for-peace-kcna, (Erişim Tarihi: 16.09.2023).
