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Kosovo-Serbia Tension in the Framework of Internal and External Dynamics

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The European Union (EU), which succeeded in its mediation process regarding the Kosovo-Serbia tension, which caused the footsteps of a new war to be felt in the Balkans, announced that an agreement was reached between Pristina and Belgrade on the “free travel” of all citizens, including Kosovo Serbs, on August 27, 2022.[1] This enabled the risk of hot conflict to disappear for a while at least.

That development prevented a new one from being added to the EU’s unsuccessful exams in the face of crises. Because, during the events in both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the 1990s, the EU could not prevent the conflicts in its immediate surroundings and the competence of the union was brought into question during the period until the intervention of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Therefore, the EU has carried out a successful crisis management process, at least during the recent events in the Balkans. However, the developments that took place in August 2022 once again revealed the fragility of the ethnic and geopolitical fault lines in the region. This indicates that tensions may escalate again in the future. Therefore, evaluating the events that brought Kosovo and Serbia face to face, will also facilitate the prediction of future developments.

Why Did the Tension Rise on the Pristina-Belgrade Line?

As it is known, the decision of the Government of Kosovo to introduce a uniform identity and license plate application throughout the country and therefore including Serbs, drew the reaction of Kosovo Serbs. Thus, the fuse of social movements was ignited, and various protest demonstrations were organized. This caused war bells to ring in the Balkans.

After these protests, the Pristina administration’s postponement of the decision for a month allowed the tension to decrease and the door to negotiations remained open. In other words, the crisis that broke out in the first days of August 2022 between the Government of Kosovo and Kosovo Serbs in particular, and between Kosovo and Serbia in general, ended without reaching a hot conflict with the announcement of the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, that he postponed the decision on the license plate and identity card for one month.

To reduce the rising tension between the two countries in this chaotic environment, the European Union (EU) brought together Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Serbian President Alexandr Vucic on August 18, 2022 in Brussels. However, it was stated that no concrete results came out of this meeting. On the contrary, when he returned from Brussels, Vucic expressed his determination to protect Kosovo Serbs.[2] This has been interpreted as the war option is still at a size that cannot be ignored.

In this context, instead of reducing the tension, Serbian President Vucic’s promises to protect Kosovo Serbs; it should be emphasized that it has an effect by raising tension and deepening the crisis. Because the Belgrade administration has clearly demonstrated through Vucic’s words that it can act in line with the ideal of “Greater Serbia” when appropriate conditions arise.

In short, the process shaped by the internal dynamics of the country regarding Kosovo’s own demographic structure, soon turned into a regional issue in line with Serbia’s argument for the protection of Kosovo Serbs. Because the attitude of Belgrade caused the concern that ethnic violence could spread to the entire Balkans. At this point, it can be stated that Serbia’s refusal to recognize Kosovo’s independence has made the issue much more complicated.

Territorial War Risk

While there is tension between Kosovo and Serbia; the thought that a possible war might not be limited to these two countries also came to mind, and this further deepened the concerns. It is known that a similar ethnic and geopolitical vulnerability exists in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is obvious that the Bosnian Serbs, under the leadership of Milorad Dodik, are to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina and join Serbia. Therefore, the crisis in Belgrade-Sarajevo relations can be added to the tension in the Belgrade-Pristina line due to the approach of Serbia, which acts with the claim of protecting all Serbs.

In such a scenario, it may become inevitable for the Balkans to return to the circle of fire, just like in the 1990s. However, it should be emphasized that; the issue is not so limited that it can only be explained by regional dynamics and ethnic fault lines which is unique to the Balkans. Because the region stands out as one of the most important playgrounds of the Russia-West struggle.

The Playground of the Russia-Western Struggle: The Balkans

It should be noted that; after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, the idea that the struggle for power and influence between Russia and the West could spread to various geographies has emerged. As a matter of fact, it would not be a surprising development that the crises and instability are carried by Russia to the immediate surroundings of Europe which is Balkan geography. In fact, the debates both in Kosovo and in Bosnia and Herzegovina take place partly because of this situation. Russia is giving the message that the crises will not be limited to the Russian close circle as the pressure of sanctions against it increases.

Based on all this information, when the recent events are handled in the context of the Russia-West struggle, it seems possible that ethnic violence will rise again in the Balkans, where geopolitical fault lines are extremely fragile. In this sense, the Kosovo-Serbia tension indicates that the first geopolitical earthquake in the region may erupt here. It is possible that Bosnia and Herzegovina will follow this.

As it is known, Serbia, Kosovo Serbs and Bosnian Serbs are under the influence of the Russian-centered Pan-Slavism movement because of the Balkans is a fragile geography that stands out in the Russia-Western rivalry.

In fact, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has also shown a paradigm shift in Russian foreign policy, which can be defined as the transition from Eurasianism to Pan-Slavism. Therefore, the Moscow administration may want to destabilize Europe through crises by using the actors under its influence in the Balkans.

On the other hand, Kosovo is a country that gained its independence with the support of the West. As a matter of fact, the NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) is working in Kosovo. In this sense, it is a development that cannot be ignored that KFOR Commander Major General Ferenc Kajari stated that NATO forces are ready to intervene to maintain stability in the country if no agreement is reached between Kosovo and Serbia.[3] In this statement, Kajari made it clear that if the Serbs set up barricades, they would remove the barricades.[4]

The statement in question can be interpreted as a message given by NATO to Russia. Because NATO felt the need to demonstrate that it is determined to protect Kosovo’s sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and stability. In other words, there is a serious struggle between the Moscow administration, which tries to strengthen its hand in the Ukraine War by creating instability in the Balkans, and the West, which wants to maintain its influence and hegemony through the establishment of regional stability. This makes the region a geography where geopolitical earthquakes are expected.

Is It Possible to Talk About a Monolithic West?

However, when we look at the Balkans policy of the West, it is not possible to talk about a monolithic West. In this sense, considering that NATO is an international organization in which the US makes its weight felt, it can be argued that the Washington administration signaled that it would like to turn possible conflicts into opportunities and that it would intervene in the event of a crisis, aiming to break Russia’s influence in the region. On the other hand, the EU has chosen to emphasize mediation diplomacy. In fact, the fact that Serbia is an EU “candidate country” despite its closeness to Russia has strengthened the hand of the European Union in this regard.

The basis of the EU’s mediation efforts is that the Balkans are in the immediate vicinity of the EU. Therefore, if things get out of control in this geography, it is inevitable for EU countries to destabilize. For this reason, there is a visible separation within the West. On the one hand, there is a US that is trying to maintain its hegemony and thus its global leadership through crises and chaos[5], in other words, feeding on conflict; on the other hand, there is the EU, which is looking for ways to maintain peace, anticipating that regional instability will reflect negatively on itself. As a matter of fact, reaching an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia can be interpreted as a victory of the EU against the US. However, there is an important point that unites the USA and the EU. It is also anti-Russian. The parties agree on limiting the influence of the Moscow administration.

The basis of the EU’s mediation efforts is that the Balkans are in the immediate vicinity of the EU. Therefore, if things get out of control in this geography, it is inevitable for EU countries to destabilize. For this reason, there is a visible separation within the West. On the one hand, there is a USA that is trying to maintain its hegemony and thus its global leadership through crises and chaos, in other words, feeding on conflict; On the other hand, there is the EU, which is looking for ways to maintain peace, anticipating that regional instability will reflect negatively on itself. As a matter of fact, reaching an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia can be interpreted as a victory of the EU against the US. However, there is an important point that unites the US and the EU. It is also anti-Russian. The parties agree on limiting the influence of the Moscow administration.

As a result, the discussions between the Government of Kosovo and the Kosovo Serbs in Kosovo brought Pristina and Belgrade face to face in a short time and war bells started to ring. Considering that there are separatist Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and that Belgrade is trying to protect the Serbs in both countries within the framework of the ideal of “Greater Serbia”, the importance of preventing the crisis before it turns into a hot conflict can be better understood. Because the Balkans is an extremely fragile geography in terms of ethnicity and geopolitics. Moreover, this region has the feature of being one of the playing fields of the struggle for influence between Russia and the West. For this reason, the EU’s reconciliation of the parties is a very important development. However, it is not rational to claim that a new crisis will not break out on such a sensitive ground. Therefore, the sustainability of the peace environment is a question.

[1] “Kosova ile Sırbistan Serbest Seyahat Konusunda Anlaştı”, NTV, https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/kosova-ile-sirbistan-serbest-seyahat-konusunda-anlasti,xTuEYPNCq0Wwk7DsyW0fQg, (Date of Accession: 29.08.2022).

[2] Eduart Halili, “Vucic Vows Protect to Serbs in Kosovo”, Albanian Daily News, https://albaniandailynews.com/news/vucic-vows-to-protect-serbs-in-kosovo, (Date of Accession: 26.08.2022).

[3] “KFOR Ready to Unblock Any Barricades in Northern Kosovo”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/kfor-ready-to-unblock-any-barricades-in-northern-kosovo/, (Date of Accession: 26.08.2022).

[4] Ibid.

[5] Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, “Ukrayna’dan Tayvan’a: “Kutup Savaşları” ya da “Kaos Düzeni””, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/ukraynadan-tayvana-kutup-savaslari-ya-da-kaos-duzeni/2658931, (Date of Accession: 29.08.2022).

Dr. Doğacan BAŞARAN
Dr. Doğacan BAŞARAN
Dr. Doğacan BAŞARAN, 2014 yılında Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü’nden mezun olmuştur. Yüksek lisans derecesini, 2017 yılında Giresun Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı’nda sunduğu ‘’Uluslararası Güç İlişkileri Bağlamında İkinci Dünya Savaşı Sonrası Hegemonik Mücadelelerin İncelenmesi’’ başlıklı teziyle almıştır. Doktora derecesini ise 2021 yılında Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Uluslararası İlişkiler Anabilim Dalı‘nda hazırladığı “İmparatorluk Düşüncesinin İran Dış Politikasına Yansımaları ve Milliyetçilik” başlıklı teziyle alan Başaran’ın başlıca çalışma alanları Uluslararası ilişkiler kuramları, Amerikan dış politikası, İran araştırmaları ve Afganistan çalışmalarıdır. Başaran iyi derecede İngilizce ve temel düzeyde Farsça bilmektedir.