The leader of the “Brothers of Italy (FdI)”, Giorgia Meloni claimed victory in the country’s general elections on 25 September, 2022. A historic election process took place in Italy, where an extreme right-wing party won the elections for the first time since the Second World War. So, Meloni is expected to become the country’s first female prime minister. The elections were closely followed by Brussels, as Italy, the founding member of the European Union (EU) and the third largest economy in the eurozone, might experience a shift in axis and change the balances within the union.
From this point of view, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Dr. Fabian Zuleeg, Chief Executive of the European Policy Centre (EPC), to evaluate what the election results in Italy mean and how it will affect EU-Italy relations.
- Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni has claimed victory in Italy’s election, and is on course to become the country’s first female prime minister. So Meloni is widely expected to form Italy’s most right-wing government since World War Two. Can we qualify this as a historic election for Italy? What will its first far-right leader since WWII mean for Italy? How would you interpret the election results?
Certainly, it is a change we did not have this kind of government in Italy before. There are some concerns about what this might mean both for domestic Italian particular economic policy but also for Italy’s European policy including the support for the European stance against Russia. So, it is an important election not least will remain in one of the big countries in European Union and thus will have an influence not only in Italy but on whole of the EU.
- What do these results mean for Italian politics? Can we expect different changes with the change of power in Italy?
The biggest challenge for the new government is about the domestic economic policy. And in particular they have been giving promises which would mean by parties in the election campaign which will be very difficult to keep because Italy’s economy remains rather weak. Having all these news spending properties would entail more borrowing and the real question is whether Italy can afford and borrow, and how the markets will react. I think there is also a question of how cooperative the new government would be at the European level. I think I would not be overly concerned in the short term that this government would try to sabotage policy at the European level and giving not the interest of the new government to create any kind of conflict with the EU. But I think it does very difficult to take forward-looking decision at the European level. In the longer term it does create a problem for the EU as well.
- In her post-election speech, Meloni said that the “Brothers of Italy (FdI)”, will treat everyone equally and will not betray people’s trust. And Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated that if things go in a difficult direction, they can resort to tools such as Hungary and Poland. Based on these statements, how will EU-Italy relations continue?
It very much depends on whether the new Italian government will seek conflict or not. There is a big danger for the new government if it gets into a conflict with the EU. In particular the big challenge is on the economic side. Italy is the biggest recipient of the resilience and recovery fund money it will require more assistance as well to get through the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis we are facing. So, the Italian government cannot really afford conflict on the economic side with the EU. My expectation is we are not going to see that kind of open conflict but it is always a certain level of unpredictability, also because we have a number of parties being together not all of it reached as well as they hoped in the election.
- Will Meloni continue the former government’s policy on the Russia-Ukraine War or adopt a new policy? What do you think?
I think overall it would be broadly in the same direction. There are some differences in the new government but how different participants see Russia. For example, Berlusconi has a positive attitude towards Russia but the new Prime Minister is skeptical about Russia. So, I would expect that overall, broadly-speaking the stance of Italy is not going to change when it comes to common action against Russia in the context of the illegally invasion of Ukraine.
- What stance does the Melony government take on additional sanctions against Russia?
I think Italy will look at the economic impact of the sanctions are going to be on its own economy and will try to also seek compensation or some of the negative effect. But I think this is also the stage which we had, I would expect that number of countries will start to worry about the economic impact of how some of these sanctions and we will see that it becomes more difficult to introduce new sanctions. But important part in here is that the bulk of the sanctions which they are already there are not going to be removed so we are talking about rather comprehensive set of sanctions which they are going to be put in question by the new government.
Dr. Fabian Zuleeg
Since October 2013, Dr. Fabian Zuleeg is Chief Executive of the European Policy Centre, with overall responsibility, including providing strategic direction, managing its staff and resources and representing the EPC. He is currently a Member of the Executive Board of Transparency International EU, Honorary Fellow at the Europa Institute of the University of Edinburgh and Honorary Professor at Heriot Watt University, as well as being on the Advisory Board for the NI/IRL Brexit Witness project. He also chairs the Selection Committee for the European Friends of Accounts for the King Baudouin Foundation. His analysis focuses on EU economic policies, including economic governance and Economic and Monetary Union, EU budget, industrial policy, trade, Single Market, European labour markets and Europe’s economic & social model. He has a long-standing interest in the political economy of European integration, with a particular focus on the UK-EU relationship, analyzing the impact of Brexit on the UK and the rest of the EU, as well as the process of separation.
