President of China Xi Jinping was re-elected to the post of general secretary at the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress held between 16-22 October 2022. Thus, Jinping became the first leader after Mao Zedong to carry his power to the third term. This leave of absence is exceptional in Chinese history. Xi lifted the two-term mandate limitation imposed by Deng Xiaoping in 2018. This change paved the way for Jinping to serve more than two terms.
In this context, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Warwick University Professor of Politics and International Studies Shaun Breslin to evaluate the developments that may occur in regional and global politics in the third term of Jinping.
- Xi Jinping was re-elected as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, becoming the first leader after Mao Zedong to hold the party leadership for more than two terms. How would you interpret Xi’s success? What brought Xi to the third term?
There has been a lot of work done on the two-term rule. However, only one Chinese leader, other than Xi Jinping, has stuck to the two-term rule. That leader was Hu Jintao, Jinping’s predecessor. Jiang Zemin, for example, remained in power for more than 12 years. Deng Xiaoping, on the other hand, was never at the top of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For this reason, the two-term service rule is not a rule with a long history. Xi’s effective control within the party from the first day and the determination of his ideas and thoughts as the core of the party is the factors that carried him to the third term. Xi’s fight against corruption also contributed to the fact that he consolidated his power within the party and was able to get his third term mandate.
- What foreign policy do you think Xi will follow in the third term? What kind of approach will he adopt, especially at the point of the global security system? Can he plan to build a new global security architecture?
China continues to call for the resolution of problems through dialogue and communication. However Chinese foreign policy does not have a plan B that can be used when it fails to resolve problems through dialogue and communication. Xi seems determined to make China a great power and to position his country as the antithesis of the United States (US) on a global scale. In my opinion, the main aim of China, for now, is not to establish a new world order under Beijing’s leadership, but instead to make it harder for the US and its allies to dominate the world. However, China wants to challenge the power, authority, and legitimacy of the current global order.
- What kind of a period awaits us in terms of China’s place in the global supply chain and its economic relations with the West? Can relations with the West be expected to improve, especially within the scope of the trade wars with the US?
China is currently aiming to strengthen its domestic economy rather than its place in the global economy and is turning more towards local supply and demand as the “driver” of its economic growth. But making this change is not easy and cannot be done quickly. For example, banning microchip exports from the US to China will have a huge impact on the Chinese economy.
- Will Xi maintains China’s current stance on Taiwan policy? Will there be any surprise developments regarding Taiwan in the new period?
Yes, I expect the policy to continue as it has evolved over the last few years. This is a negative situation for Taiwan. Beijing’s goal is to make Taiwan part of the People’s Republic of China at some point in the future. The real question here is when and how China will want to do this. The year 2049 will be the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Therefore, this date may be a target date for unification with Taiwan. However, many analysts think that this date will be later than expected. I don’t know the answer to this question for sure, but what seems clear is that Xi is not ready to tolerate the current status quo indefinitely.
- Do you think the US will continue to support Taiwan? How will China respond to this?
There are midterm elections in the US. Presidential elections will be held in 2024. Whether the US will support Taiwan is a matter related to the results of the elections in the first place. However, the continued support of Taiwan by the US will certainly deepen the lack of trust between China and the US.
Shaun Breslin
He is a Professor of Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. He is a leading expert on Chinese politics and economy, globalization, regionalism, governance, and international political economy.
His major books are: “China Risen? Studying Chinese Global Power (Bristol: Bristol University Press, 2021)”, “China and the Global Political Economy (Basingstoke: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2007)”, “Mao (Harlow: Longman, 2000)”, “China in the 1980s: Centre-Province Relations in a Reforming Socialist State (Basingstoke: Macmillan and New York: St Martins, 1996)”. Breslin is also Associate Editor of The Pacific Review, Senior Fellow at the Wong MNC Center, and Researcher at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). In addition to all these, Breslin is a member of the Academy of Social Sciences.
