On Sunday, October 23, 2022, the Communist Party of China (CPC) announced the Politburo Standing Committee, with Xi Jinping re-elected as General Secretary. From that day on, it is wondered what kind of strategy China will follow especially in the crises in its near abroad and possible effects on global politics. Maybe, the most debated issue is whether Xi Jinping will inevitably increase his power or not in his new term.
From this point of view, Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM) presents the views of Eerishika Pankaj, the Director of the Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA), to evaluate what kind of strategy Xi Jinping will follow in his new term and possible crisis that we encounter in the region.
- What kind of change do you expect in China’s foreign policy in Xi Jinping’s third term?
A new head of the Foreign Ministry is poised to be appointed as a result of top diplomat Yang Jiechi’s retirement. In this case, Politburo’s inclusion of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is 69 years old and past retirement age, suggests that he could take Jeichi’s place. Wang, a career diplomat and one of China’s most experienced “wolf-warriors”, is skilled at handling the international challenges that China is facing owing especially to his decade-long position as Foreign Minister. Included in the Politburo are other hard-line diplomats like Qin Gang, who is currently the ambassador to the United States (US) and is poised to succeed Wang as Foreign Minister in the upcoming years. This demonstrates continuity for wolf warrior diplomacy, which will be adeptly implemented by Wang in the foreign ministry under Xi’s third term. In this regard, there are limited changes in foreign policy that can be anticipated in the coming years; the world should instead remain prepared to handle an ever-assertive China on regional and international stages.
- The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that China’s government is pursuing its plans to annex Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” under Xi Jinping. Do you agree with this view?
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan at present appears more alarmist than realistic. Taiwan as an issue is something that Xi Jinping cannot afford to mislead or mispredict. His strategy on the island has been to play the long game; even as the CPC continues to hold reunification as the ultimate and non-changing goal, Xi’s present focus is more on ensuring no large-scale secessionist activities take place in Taiwan while continuing to maintain the critical economic dependency of Taiwan on China. The timeline for an annexation remains bleak, especially as Taiwan is not Ukraine and comparisons on that front remain misplaced. Taiwan holds a much stronger position in global markets, especially vis-a-vis the semiconductor supply chains and continues to remain somewhat protected by the US-Taiwan Relations Act. Even as force is not ruled out by Xi vis-a-vis Taiwan, a full-scale annexation or invasion of the island remains unlikely presently.
- From that day on, what kind of China awaits us? “More peaceful China” or a “more aggressive China”?
China’s peaceful rise is all but over; it is increasingly identifiable as a revolutionary revisionist power, even though the scope of actual war between the US-China and even India-China on a regional scale remains bleak in the 21st Century. China now recognizes itself as a power that has the potential and mechanisms to reshape international systems; it no longer wants to be seen as a second fiddle or rising power opposing the US. Instead, China looks to hold its own on international platforms, and if mistreated, is showing an increasing willingness to create altogether new Asia-centric platforms ranging across financing (like the AIIB) to trade (like the BRI model) and even security (the newly ideated Global Security Initiative). The issue emerges in the realization that while competition between states is natural and good, the rules of the game must remain common; China’s unilateral actions and flouting of the rules-based order pose security threats to neighbouring states like India and will continue to do so in the coming years.
Eerishika Pankaj
Eerishika Pankaj is the Director of the New Delhi-based think-tank, the Organisation for Research on China and Asia (ORCA), which focuses on decoding domestic Chinese politics and its impact on Beijing’s foreign policymaking. She is also an Editorial and Research Assistant to the Series Editor for Routledge Series on Think Asia; a Young Leader in the 2020 cohort of the Pacific Forum’s Young Leaders Program; a Commissioning Editor with E-International Relations for their Political Economy section; a Member of the Indo-Pacific Circle and a Council Member of the WICCI’s India-EU Business Council. Primarily a China and East Asia scholar, her research focuses on Chinese elite/party politics, the India-China border, water and power politics in the Himalayas, Tibet, the Indo-Pacific and India’s bilateral ties with Europe and Asia.
