On September 20, 2023, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced his country’s decision to prioritize its own defense, calling for a halt to arms shipments to Ukraine.[1] Prime Minister Mateusz stated, “We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now equipping Poland with more modern weapons.[2]
The deteriorating relations between Poland and Ukraine are attributed to a growing dispute over grain.[3] According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Warsaw government continues to ban grain imports from Ukraine to protect its own farmers, indirectly benefiting Russia. Following these allegations, Poland announced that it would no longer send arms to Ukraine.
However, Poland has been one of Ukraine’s most loyal allies and main arms suppliers since the Russian attack began in February 2022. Poland has also hosted one million Ukrainian refugees continuing to benefit from state aid. The strain in their bilateral relationship began with the restriction of grain exports from Ukraine to some European Union (EU) members.
It’s worth recalling that in May of this year, the EU agreed to restrict grain imports from Ukraine to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia to protect local markets. [4] TUnder these measures, products were allowed to transit from these five countries but were not allowed to be sold in local markets. However, on September 15, 2023, the European Commission announced that it would lift the import ban, claiming that the market disruptions in the five member countries sharing a border with Ukraine had been resolved. Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia immediately objected to this decision, declaring they would not comply.[5]
The escalating tension between Poland and Ukraine has alarmed their allies. Following Prime Minister Mateusz’s statements, the Polish Prime Minister’s Office announced that Warsaw would continue to send arms under existing contracts.[6] . It appears that under pressure from the United States and the United Kingdom, Poland had to reconsider its decision. It is predicted that while Poland will continue existing arms supplies, it will refrain from signing new contracts.
Just before Russia’s attack, on February 17, 2022, the UK, Poland, and Ukraine announced signing a trilateral security pact.[7] This security pact, signed after Russia amassed 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, was seen as a significant assurance for Kiev, which was not yet a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). After the war began, the UK and Poland continued their strong support for Ukraine.
The pre-World War II alliance agreement between Poland and the UK had also opened the door to a major conflict in Europe. Approximately 85 years later, the UK and Poland find themselves in a similar situation in continental Europe, facing off against Russia. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Poland can easily withdraw its support for Ukraine.
Furthermore, Poland is known to be among Russia’s potential targets. Fears have risen that after the war in Ukraine, Russia might initiate attacks on other countries. Due to these fears, Poland has attempted to send its support to Ukraine through other European countries and Germany. Directly providing heavy weapons aid to Ukraine might make Poland the next target for Russia, potentially leading to a NATO-Russia war.
The policies of the UK and the US could shape not only Eastern Europe but also the future of the world. Several important questions arise: What do the US and the UK think about the future of Europe and supporting Ukraine? Are these two countries in agreement, or do they have different plans? It seems that the UK is trying to involve the US in the European conflict. On the other hand, the US is seeking full support from the UK in its struggle against China. Additionally, the Washington administration continually emphasizes that it does not want a war between NATO and Russia. However, the British might desire such an outcome.
The power politics of the US and the UK are dragging Eastern European states into the midst of the conflict. Although NATO serves as a defensive shield, Russia’s attacks are taking on a hybrid form.
NATO can only provide military and intelligence support to prevent this. Ultimately, Poland and Ukraine will continue to be victims of the power struggle among major powers.
[1] “Poland Will No Longer Send Weapons to Ukraine, Says PM, As Grain Dispute Escalates”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/poland-stop-ukraine-weapons-supply-grain-exports-dispute, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2023).
[ii] Aynı yer.
[2] Aynı yer.
[4] “EU Blocks Ukraine Grain İmports To Five Countries İncluding Poland”, EuroNews, https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/14/eu-blocks-ukraine-grain-imports-to-five-countries-including-poland, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2023).
[5] “Poland Will No Longer Send Weapons to Ukraine, Says PM, As Grain Dispute Escalates”, a.g.e., (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2023).
[6] “Poland Seeks to Mend Ukraine Rift with Arms Supplies U-Turn”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/poland-says-it-s-still-supplying-ukraine-with-weapons#xj4y7vzkg, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2023).
[7] “Ukraine, UK, Poland Announce Security Pact Amid Heightened Tensions”, Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/17/ukraine-uk-poland-announce-security-pact-amid-heightened-tensions/, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2023).
