On August 6 and 7, 2023, the Russian and Chinese navies conducted a joint exercise off the coast of Alaska. The Russian-Chinese joint fleet has been continuing its maritime security activities in the Pacific Ocean for approximately one month since July 27, 2023. Having traveled more than 6,400 nautical miles since the start of the patrol mission, the joint fleet last passed into the East China Sea [1] Here, Russian ships visited the port of Qingdao in China’s Shandong province.[2] It was announced that the exercises carried out based on the annual plan of cooperation between the two armies and in compliance with international law, did not target any third party and were unrelated to current global problems. [3]
These maneuvers are seen as evidence of “mutual trust” and “unwavering military cooperation” in Sino-Russian relations. [4] One of the main reasons for this solidarity is that Russia and China have common interests in the security of maritime routes. In this context, the shipping lanes of the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, the Pacific Ocean, and the Arctic have gained strategic importance with global warming, and, therefore, protecting the security of these waters has become vital. In this regard, the fact that Russia and China continue to organize joint military exercises and patrols in the Pacific can also be interpreted as an effort to create a balance in the region against Western powers. Indeed, the United States of America (USA) and its other Western allies have made an anti-China axis in the area due to the joint exercises and patrols they carry out to ensure the safety of maritime navigation in the Asia-Pacific. Faced with the size of the competitors, the two actors must act together and create a balance in this sense.
Russia’s presence in the Pacific supports China’s interests. The sensitive spots here are the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. China opposes Russia’s free movement in the southern seas and its establishment of partnerships with regional states because Russia’s activity in the Indian Ocean may disturb China. For example, the departure of a Russian Navy warship and two submarines to Sri Lanka [5] last year was interpreted as a deepening of the power struggle in the region. Far Eastern countries, especially Russia and China, have begun making moves that will change the balance of power in the Pacific. The Japanese Navy’s exercise with the Sri Lankan Navy last year is an example of this. In recent years, Russia has begun to show off its strength in the Pacific, primarily through naval exercises. Moscow’s message here may be aimed at the United States and other Western powers that want to counter China in the Pacific.
Russia is also interested in the ports of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Moscow aims to create a vast area of activity in the Pacific. The biggest obstacle to this is the regional and global power race in the Pacific. Russia may find it dangerous to exist alone in the Pacific without China’s support. That is why China’s support is crucial for Russia. Under normal circumstances, China may view Russia’s presence in the Indo-Pacific as competitive. Beijing has disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea, and Russia is engaged in energy cooperation, especially with Vietnam, in these seas. In this context, Russia’s investment in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea may contradict China’s interests.
If Russia and China decide to act together instead of competing in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific, this will cause significant harm to the United States and Western powers. The fact that the Russian and Chinese navies hold joint exercises in the Pacific, East China Sea, and Sea of Japan could be a sign that this cooperation can be extended to the Indo-Pacific.
There are two actors here who can change or break the equation. These are India and Japan. These two powers can potentially disrupt Russia and China’s plans or change their goals. For example, Japan could provoke Russia and drag it into a war in the Pacific. Likewise, if India sees provocative moves by China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific, which it considers its “backyard,” it might leave them alone in Asia and focus on the West.
Russia’s strategy in the Pacific appears to be based on cooperation and partnership with China. At this point, the advancement of Russia’s military alliances with China in the Arctic and the North Pacific may also open the door to cooperation in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific. In the long term, China may want to see Russia as a deterrent actor against the West in the Indo-Pacific. The crucial question is: “Which actor needs the other more?” It seems that Russia needs China more. As the war in Ukraine enters a stalemate, Moscow will welcome cooperation with Beijing in all areas. On the other hand, Russia may want to stay away from dangerous tensions in and around the Taiwan Strait. In any case, China and Russia are close to establishing a military alliance in the Pacific.
[1] “Russia, China Conduct Joint Maritime Patrols in Pacific Ocean”, Wionews, https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-china-conduct-joint-maritime-patrols-in-pacific-ocean-626672, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2023).
[2] “Russian Warships Visit China Following Joint Naval Patrol in Pacific Ocean”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296785.shtml, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2023).
[3] “Russia and China hold joint naval war games in the Pacific”, New Arab, https://www.newarab.com/news/russia-and-china-hold-joint-naval-war-games-pacific, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2023).
[4] “Russian Warships Visit China Following Joint Naval Patrol in Pacific Ocean”, a.g.e., (Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2023).
[5] “Russia’s Pacific Fleet Comes Calling at Colombo Port as China İnfluence Wanes”, Daiji World, https://www.daijiworld.com/news/newsDisplay?newsID=885108, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2023).
