On May 31, 2023, international media reported that on May 12, 2023, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Thani held a secret meeting with Taliban leader Mullah Heybetullah Akhundzadeh in Kandahar, Afghanistan. According to reports on the meeting, Al Sani and Akhundzadeh discussed ways for Afghanistan to engage in dialogue with the international community.[1] In other words, the Taliban administration, which is isolated from the world, wants to establish healthy relations with various actors and in this context, Qatar’s mediation is important.
In fact, Doha’s mediation diplomacy in the Afghan conflict is not a new development. In fact, the US negotiations with the Taliban under former US President Donald Trump were also mediated by Qatar and the Taliban opened a political office in Doha. As a matter of fact, the Doha Agreement of February 29, 2020, the agreement on the Washington administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, was signed there.[2] Therefore, it is possible to state that Qatar has assumed the role of a bridge in establishing and maintaining contacts between the Taliban and the international community. The meeting between Al Sani and Akhundzadeh is also very important in terms of demonstrating that Doha continues this mission.
The question that arises at this point is whether Qatar’s efforts are likely to yield results. There is a mismatch between the expectations of the international community and Afghanistan’s prioritized needs. Moreover, the Taliban leadership is unwilling to fulfill the conditions set by the international community for recognition.
As it is known, the international community expects the Taliban to fulfill its commitments in the Doha Agreement to recognize its legitimacy. In this context, it wants the Taliban to distance itself from terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for these organizations, to prevent attacks against foreign states using Afghan territory, to establish an inclusive government to which all identity groups in the country feel a sense of belonging, and to establish an order that respects human rights, especially women’s rights.
On the other hand, the Taliban states that it is already acting in accordance with the Doha Agreement. As a matter of fact, it is known that the Taliban has carried out significant operations against the terrorist organization within the framework of the fight against DAESH. However, the presence of the terrorist organization DAESH in the region through the so-called Khorasan Emirate (ISKP) continues. Moreover, ISKP categorically targets the territory of foreign states by attacking foreign diplomatic missions in Afghanistan. In addition, Islamabad claims that the terrorist organization Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) uses Afghan territory and carries out attacks in Pakistan.
The Taliban denies the existence of al-Qaeda terrorist organization in Afghanistan and states that it has no relations with this organization. However, it is known that the Haqqani Network, one of the power centers within the Taliban, has relations with the al-Qaeda terrorist organization. In fact, the United States and some of its allies impose sanctions on senior Taliban officials, especially members of the Haqqani Network, on the grounds that they are affiliated with the al-Qaeda terrorist organization, even though the US and some of its allies do not recognize the Taliban as a terrorist organization. Especially after the leader of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was neutralized in the Shir Pur area, known as the diplomatic district of Kabul, as a result of the US operation on August 1, 2022, the assumption that the Taliban maintained its ties with al-Qaeda began to be expressed much more strongly.[3]
On the other hand, when the US withdrew from Afghanistan under the Doha Agreement, it did not wait for the completion of inter-Afghan negotiations. Therefore, the Taliban made rapid progress, seized Kabul and established its own administration. This led to some criticism in the West regarding the sharing of power. Nevertheless, the Taliban argues that the government it has established is already inclusive. But it is also clear that the Taliban rule reflects the Pashtun hegemony in the country. This is why the international community wants a government in which all identity groups are represented. In fact, this is a very complicated issue. Indeed, examples of government formation based on ethno-sectarian factors have not been successful in either Lebanon or Iraq. Moreover, such experiences have demonstrated the escalation of ethnopolitical tensions and the risk of civil war in these countries.
On the other hand, the Taliban state that they cannot overcome the limitations of Islam in terms of human rights, especially women’s rights, but that women have every right, provided that it is in accordance with the religion. Although this has drawn the reaction of the international community, given that the West has relations with many countries governed by Sharia law and similar practices, it can be argued that the pressure on the Taliban on this issue also constitutes interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.
As can be understood, there are serious differences between the expectations of the international community and the Taliban’s approach. It is not possible to say that there is an effort to overcome these differences in the current conjuncture. Therefore, Qatar’s mediation efforts are not expected to yield concrete results. However, it can be stated that the Doha administration wants to conduct a people-centered diplomacy that focuses on Afghanistan’s priorities. The reality of Afghanistan requires drawing attention to the reality of the Afghan people rather than the expectations of the international community.
Currently, Afghanistan’s most serious problem is its economic problems. The economic trajectory indicates that a country whose national reserves have been confiscated, whose banking system has collapsed, and which cannot attract investment due to isolation is heading for disaster. As a matter of fact, Afghanistan is experiencing employment problems, deepening poverty and causing a humanitarian crisis. In fact, this is the main reason for the Afghanistan-based migration movement. Moreover, this humanitarian crisis has an impact on the emergence of the security problem that destabilizes Afghanistan in particular and the Central Asia-South Asia line in general, that is, Eurasian geopolitics. Because in an environment where there are people with employment problems, it becomes easier for terrorist organizations to recruit personnel.
In short, if a step is to be taken to solve the Afghan Question, it will have to start with overcoming the humanitarian crisis. In this context, it is necessary to end the isolation imposed on Afghanistan, to ensure the continuity of aid, to attract Afghanistan to the ground of international cooperation through the realization of various projects and to transform it into a country that can receive foreign investment directly or indirectly. It seems that Al Sani’s visit to Kandahar is a reflection of this effort. Because the news reflected in the press reported that ways to end the isolation imposed on Afghanistan were sought. Therefore, it can be argued that Qatar wants to reinforce its peacemaking role in the Afghan conflict through humanitarian diplomacy and aims to contribute to overcoming the humanitarian crisis by setting priorities even if it cannot resolve the differences between the international community and the Taliban.
[1] “Qatar Prime Minister, Taliban Chief Hold Secret Talks in Afghanistan: Source”, Al Arabiya, https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2023/05/31/Qatar-prime-minister-Taliban-chief-hold-secret-talks-in-Afghanistan-Source, (Date of Accession: 01.06.2023).
[2] “Joint Declaration between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the United States of America for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan”, State.gov, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf, (Date of Accession: 01.06.2023)
[3] “Zawahri’s Kabul Death Raises Questions About al Qaeda Presence in Afghanistan After US left it to the Taliban”, Fox News, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/zawahiri-death-raises-questions-over-al-qaeda-operations-in-taliban-controlled-afghanistan, (Date of Accession: 01.06.2023).
