As the deadline for the withdrawal of the United States (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies from Afghanistan, 31 August 2021, approaches; uncertainties regarding the future of Afghanistan are increasing and it is thought that a regional chaos plan that will exceed this country too, has been implemented. The attacks carried out by the terrorist organization State of Iraq and Sham (DAESH) in Kabul on 26 August 2021, also point out this.
As it is known, on 15 August 2021, the Taliban took Kabul under their control and this revealed the collapse of the political system that the USA tried to build during the 20-year occupation and the Afghanistan Army, which America trained, equipped, and provided military assistance to. Therefore, the Washington administration has lost its capacity to build the peace expected from the hegemon actor in the international system and has lost the war it waged against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The theoretical approach, which is expressed as Hegemonic Stability Theory, assumes that the international system, in anarchic structure, needs a hegemon actor who will regulate various issues with the rules it sets. In this context, it is expected from the hegemonic leader that to be capable of establishing a stable order in terms of politics, economy, military, and ideology. Therefore, the defeat of the USA in Afghanistan, which is known as the “Graveyard of Empires”, has revealed that this country has lost its hegemon position too.
According to the theory in question, in a conjuncture where there is no hegemonic actor, chaos dominates international politics. Current developments also show that the USA wants to leave chaos behind it because it could not build a healthy system in Afghanistan, where it had set out to establish an empire based on domination by moving away from consensual hegemony. The Washington administration, also, is of the opinion that it can maintain its global leadership by taking advantage of the chaos. In other words, the USA thinks that the instability in Afghanistan will not be limited to this country and will spread to the region. The aim here is to limit Russia, the traditional other of the USA and China, its main rival in the global power struggle.
As it can be understood, Afghanistan, which was the center of the “Great Game” that took place between the Tsardom of Russia and the Great British Empire in the past and today witnessed the “New Great Game”, maintains its importance in the struggle for global dominance with its position described as the heartland of the world. Recent developments show that a new phase has been entered by means of the terrorist organizations used as proxy actors in the New Great Game.
It should be stated that the terrorist organization DAESH is a useful tool at the point of geography designs and it functions as a skeleton key that opens every door. The sleeper cells of DAESH, which were used to create a suitable ground for the so-called Kurdistan state to be established in Syria and Iraq, within the framework of the Greater Middle East Project, have now been activated in Afghanistan.
In this context, after the attacks of 26 August 2021, it can be expressed by the American authorities that the Taliban cannot ensure the security of Afghanistan. Because, the USA, over the terrorist attacks, can give the message that “We were going to go, but you saw what happened at the airport. We must stay for Afghanistan’s security.” Commander of the USA Central Command (CENTCOM), General Kenneth McKenzie, who, after the attacks, connected to the press conference of Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby, said, “The DAESH threat will not be able to prevent us. If necessary, we will attack DAESH.”[1] In short, the attacks can be used to keep the United States in Afghanistan within the framework of the claim of counterterrorism.
On the other hand, it is understood that the activities of DAESH and its derivatives, in the country in question, will increase in the upcoming period. At this point, based on the fact that the New Great Game is carried out by proxy actors, it can be argued that a situation in which terrorism is exported outside of Afghanistan’s borders, is desired. Because the radicalization in Afghanistan cannot be expected to be limited to this country. The events’, here, spreading to neighboring states such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, and from there to other Central Asian countries; even reaching Russia is among the possibilities. Groups, operated in Central Asian states and linked to terrorist organizations such as DAESH and Al-Qaeda, also strengthen this possibility.
Another dimension of the issue is created by the Chinese factor. In this sense, it may be desired that terrorism targets Chinese investments in a way that destabilizes the Belt-Road Project, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and that radicalization affects Muslims in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region over the Wakhan Corridor.
Moreover, it can even be targeted to increase tensions in Kashmir through the radicalization in Afghanistan. In fact, there may be a matter of a scenario where people who want to survive will prefer to immigrate due to the instability to be experienced in the geographies in question, and the terrorist elements that will infiltrate these immigrants will try to carry terrorism to countries such as Turkey and Iran, which are on the immigration route.
Moreover, as the Syrian Civil War has shown, it is not just the United States; many actors, having global leadership claim, have significant experience about proxy wars. This whole picture is a harbinger of the activation of a comprehensive chaos plan on the South Asia-Central Asia, South Asia-Indo-Pacific and South Asia-Middle East-Europe routes.
As a result, the attacks carried out by the terrorist organization DAESH on 26 August 2021 are not only for Afghanistan; it also points to a break in terms of global competition and reveals that a new stage has been entered in the New Great Game. For this reason, it can be claimed that there may be an increase in terrorist attacks based in Afghanistan. Because it is seen that Afghanistan is intended to be transformed into a paradise for terrorist organizations. Because the USA’s chaos-based leadership strategy requires it.
[1] “Afganistan’daki Saldırılar Sonrası ABD’den Açıklama: Gerekirse DEAŞ’a Saldırırız”, Yeni Şafak, https://www.yenisafak.com/dunya/afganistandaki-saldirilar-sonrasi-abdden-aciklama-gerekirse-deasa-saldiririz-3689549, (Erişim Tarihi: 27.08.2021).
