On November 16, 2022, the European Union (EU) Commission expressed its opinion on the accession of Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia to the Schengen area. The Commission noted that Sofia has implemented strong border management when effective border surveillance and controls. On the other hand, it was pointed out that Bucharest also has high-quality and strong border management. The other candidate, Zagreb, is said to be making efforts to ensure that controls of its external borders comply with its fundamental rights obligations.[1]
Schengen means that citizens of EU member states can move freely within the bloc. In this context, the EU Commission emphasized the achievements of the states in ensuring border security. The Council of Europe will hold the vote on Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania’s accession to the Schengen area on December 8, 2022. Moreover, Croatia’s accession vote will probably take place separately from Bulgaria and Romania.[2]
It can be said that the state with the highest probability of joining Schengen among the three countries is Croatia. Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007, while Croatia joined in 2013. However, despite this, it can be stated that Zagreb’s integration process with the EU is developing faster compared to the other two states. For example, Croatia will start using the euro, the EU currency, as of 2023. In this context, it will also ensure its economic integration with the EU. Bulgaria and Romania, in addition to not switching to the euro, are experiencing various internal problems. Bulgaria, especially in the last two years, has been coming to the fore with “political instabilities.”
It should be noted that the situation is being considered by other countries within the EU. While Austria expresses its support for Croatia’s accession to the Schengen area, it opposes the membership of Romania and Bulgaria.[3] In this regard, it should be emphasized that the current political outlook of the countries that are likely to participate in Schengen has a decisive role.
Moreover, the fact that there are also important agreements between Vienna and Zagreb on energy affects Croatia’s perspective. In this context, Austria and Croatia announced a partnership on the liquified natural gas (LNG) project in the Adriatic in November 2022.[4] Croatia is the only country in the Balkans with an LNG terminal other than Greece. Due to this, the geostrategic importance of Zagreb has increased. In this context, it is seen that Croatia comes to the forefront at the point of ensuring the energy diversity and security of Europe.
Considering the geographical location of Croatia, it is understood that it is considered the most reasonable option for Austria in terms of LNG logistics. In other words, it can be argued that the relations between Zagreb and Vienna contain a multidimensional nature. The situation affects the view of both Austria and other EU countries regarding Croatia’s accession to the Schengen area. On the other hand, the reason why the Vienna administration is cautiously approaching the membership of Bulgaria and Romania may be due to the possible migration flow that may be directed from these two countries.
On the other hand, it can be stated that Bulgaria is the state with the least probability of joining the Schengen area among these three countries. In particular, the fact that Bulgaria has been locked in an election cycle for the last two years creates a question mark in some European capitals. Sweden and the Netherlands are also among these countries. Therefore, Bulgaria has increased its contacts to convince the Netherlands of the point of joining the Schengen. In this regard, Bulgarian Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev and Foreign Minister Nikolay Milkov paid a visit to The Hague, The Netherlands, on November 28-29, 2022.[5]
It can be stated that the Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria are skeptical that Bulgaria and Romania will be able to protect the external borders of the EU. Austria and the new government that came to power in Sweden have a strict attitude towards irregular migration to Europe. Furthermore, the fact that Bulgaria is a “transit route” for migration and that there have been questioning marks at the point of dealing with this problem in recent months also leads these countries to be cautious about Sofia’s accession to the Schengen area.
As can be understood, Sofia’s encounter with the opposition of various countries within the EU reduces its chances of joining the Schengen area compared to Zagreb and Bucharest. The political crisis in Bulgaria is disrupting the process of Sofia’s integration into the EU. In this context, some countries view Bulgaria’s Schengen membership negatively within the bloc. This reality may delay Sofia’s Schengen process.
In conclusion, it can be said that the state with the highest probability of joining the Schengen area among these states is Croatia. Compared to the other two countries, Croatia has a stable outlook in both economic and political terms. For this reason, Croatia should not be expected to face opposition from Austria or other countries before the vote. Croatia’s accession to Schengen will accelerate Zagreb’s integration process with the EU.
[1] “Making Schengen Stronger: Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia Are Ready to Fully Participate in the Schengen Area”, European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_6945, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[2] “Hurdles Remain For Schengen Hopefuls Bulgaria and Romania”, EU Observer, https://euobserver.com/migration/156428, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[3] Nikolaus J. Kurmayer-Zoran Radosavljevic, “Austria Backs Schengen For Croatia, Not Bulgaria”, Romania, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/austria-backs-schengen-for-croatia-not-bulgaria-romania/, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[4] “Austria, Croatia, Bavaria Team Up For Adriatic LNG Project”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/austria-croatia-bavaria-team-up-for-adriatic-lng-project/, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
[5] Antonia Kotseva, “Bulgarian Ministers Visit Netherlands, Push for Schengen Membership”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/bulgarian-ministers-visit-netherlands-push-for-schengen-membership/, (Date of Accession: 01.12.2022).
