The 2025 Bolivian Presidential Elections, held on August 17, paved the way for a profound transformation in the country’s political landscape, marking the end of the more than two-decade-long dominance of the left-leaning Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), which has shaped the political sphere.[i] According to preliminary results, centrist senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira came first with approximately 32% of the vote, while former president and right-leaning figure Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga secured around 27%, qualifying for the second round.[ii] In line with constitutional provisions, since no candidate reached 50% of the vote and the “40% plus a 10-point lead” requirement was not met, the election will proceed to a runoff scheduled for October 19, 2025.
This development not only defied forecasts and public opinion polls but also demonstrated how fluid and fragile voter behavior has become in the context of economic and institutional crisis.[iii] The MAS candidate’s failure to surpass approximately 3% of the vote, the poor performance of other left-leaning actors, and the exceptionally high share of invalid ballots, at around 19–21%, one of the highest in the country’s history, reflect deep voter frustration and political fragmentation. Moreover, MAS’s founding leader, Evo Morales’ open call to voters to cast invalid ballots contributed to this outcome and further deepened the movement’s internal legitimacy crisis.[iv]
From an economic perspective, Bolivia is facing the most severe economic crisis of the past four decades. Rising inflation, shortages of fuel and foreign currency, and structural macroeconomic problems have eroded public confidence in the existing order.[v] The unexpected rise of Paz Pereira, who was low in pre-election polls, demonstrates voters’ demand for political renewal and their search for alternatives beyond both the traditional left and the familiar right-wing candidates. Pereira’s assistant, Edman Lara Montaño, known for exposing corruption within the police force, has facilitated voter mobilization around anti-corruption and institutional reform agendas. In contrast, Quiroga distinguished himself with promises of radical economic transformation, privatization, fiscal discipline, and the legal prosecution of MAS leaders, representing a far more decisive paradigm shift.
This transformation carries significance on three levels. First, the end of left-wing hegemony and the rise of center-right oriented candidates form part of the broader ideological shift observed across Latin America. Since the early 2000s, the so-called “pink wave” of leftist governments has increasingly given way to center-right or right-wing administrations. This trend could reshape regional alliances, trade networks, and geopolitical orientations. In particular, Bolivia’s natural gas and potential lithium reserves hold strategic value in the context of global energy politics. Quiroga’s pledges to liberalize and open property rights to individuals could pave the way for increased foreign direct investment and new trade engagements with the United States. However, such policies may face strong social resistance, especially among indigenous communities, under narratives of “resource sovereignty” and “protection of national heritage.”
Second, MAS’s loss of hegemony and the rivalry between Morales and Arce bring to the forefront the fragility of Bolivia’s party system and the limits of democratic consolidation. While election observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States confirmed that the electoral process was generally conducted in an orderly manner, isolated tensions and security issues were also reported. This indicates that Bolivia, in its transitional phase, is striving to maintain institutional stability while continuing its integration into international normative frameworks.
Third, the election results may have implications for the balance of power in South America. Resource policies, migration flows, and relations with regional blocs, such as Mercosur or UNASUR, could be reshaped by the foreign policy preferences of the new administrations. A right or center-right government may generate tensions in relations with left-leaning governments; this, in turn, could have a direct impact on Indigenous rights, Amazon environmental policies, and regional integration initiatives.
The state, under conditions of economic insecurity and resource scarcity, is moving toward liberalization in a rational manner; energy resources, meanwhile, render Bolivia significant in regional power calculations. The persistence of multiparty competition, the runoff mechanism, and the presence of international observers indicate that democratic institutions remain functional and that alignment with international norms continues. Furthermore, the high proportion of invalid ballots can be interpreted as a reflection of the struggle over legitimacy and the redefinition of social identities.
In conclusion, the runoff scheduled for October 19, 2025, represents not only a national struggle for power but also a critical juncture that will shape the trajectory of ideological restructuring, energy geopolitics, and democratic transitions in Latin America. In this process, Bolivia could either serve as an example of democratic consolidation or act as a cautionary case of party system disintegration and deepening institutional fragility.
[i] “Two decades of leftwing dominance end in Bolivia as rightwingers head to election runoff”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/18/bolivia-presidential-election-preliminary-results, (Access Date: 20.08.2025).
[ii] “Bolivia heads to runoff after right turn in presidential vote”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-heads-runoff-after-right-turn-presidential-vote-2025-08-18/, (Access Date: 20.08.2025).
[iii] “Polls close, counting begins in Bolivia’s presidential elections”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/polls-close-counting-begins-in-bolivia-s-presidential-elections/3662143, (Access Date: 20.08.2025).
[iv] Ibid.
[v] “Bolivia shifts away from left wing for first time in 20 years”, Latin America Reports, https://latinamericareports.com/bolivia-shifts-away-from-left-wing-for-first-time-in-20-years/12129/, (Access Date: 20.08.2025).
