2022 was a year of major shifts in global balances due to the Russia-Ukraine War that started in February and the Taliban seizing control of Afghanistan before that. In this process, many countries have drawn a road map for themselves by making different balance calculations. India has been one of the countries that have come to the forefront at this point due to its various orientations.
It is seen that India, which aims to become a global power, uses the differences between the great powers as part of its balance policy. Maintaining ties with the West and the United States of America (USA), New Delhi has continued to contribute to structures such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) on the one hand, and on the other, has been conspicuous by its abstention on United Nations (UN) resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has refrained from taking a harsh reaction against Moscow. Furthermore, India, which has begun to take a keen interest in Central Asia, where Russia’s influence is seen to be waning, has taken steps to build connections with the region’s governments through various channels.
In 2023, India, which will hold the presidency of the G20 and the chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), is expected to make significant use of these opportunities. Institutional leadership is expected to give New Delhi an edge in realizing its goal of becoming a world power.[1]
It is clear that the elevated status will provide positive advantages for the country’s rise. In September 2022, New Delhi will take over the chairmanship in September 2023 and host the 2023 Summit of the SCO. This presidency will have a significant impact on the fight against terrorism and enhancing interaction with Central Asian countries. This will make New Delhi more prominent in the international arena.
The advantage of the G20 presidency is that it will give India the opportunity to set the agenda. As of December 1, 2022, New Delhi assumed the presidency. India’s presidency will continue until November 30, 2023, and it will act as host for the summit in September 2023. In 2023, the G20 is expected to focus on the Sustainable Development Goals due to issues such as the Ukraine war, rising inflation, economic problems and energy crises.[2] India is also expected to take the lead in this regard.
The theme chosen by the New Delhi administration for the new G20 period is “One land, one family, one future.”[3] It can be said that India, which emphasizes international cooperation, will play a key role in the G20 within the framework of this theme. In addition to the international impact, this presidency will also benefit Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the national level. As is well known, general elections will be held in India in 2024. The G20 and SCO leadership will enhance India’s international prestige. This is also likely to give the Modi government an advantage in the elections.
On the other hand, it is possible to predict that India will pursue a more active policy in Central Asia and Afghanistan. In this case, the rotating presidencies will have a significant impact. In addition, Central Asian countries’ interest in the growing Indian economy and the problems between Afghanistan and Pakistan also present opportunities for New Delhi.
It is also plausible to predict that in 2023, India will be more active in the Russian-Ukrainian War. In this sense, it is significant that Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that New Delhi attaches importance to returning to dialogue and diplomacy. Indeed, Jaishankar’s remarks suggest that India could also play a role in bringing the parties together:[4]
“So, from the very beginning, our effort has been to urge (Russia and Ukraine to) return to dialogue and diplomacy. The Prime Minister himself has spoken on numerous occasions with President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky. I myself talked to my colleagues in Russia and Ukraine. We know this is not an easily resolvable situation. But it’s important that countries who believe in negotiation, speak up clearly in that regard. We’re on the side of peace and a large part of the world thinks like us.”
In this context, it can be stated that India is expected to be a determining or guiding actor in global politics in 2023, unless there is a negative situation such as an increase in border tensions with China. Economic data also provide positive clues. The World Bank raised India’s 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast from 6.5% to 6.9%. This has led to the expectation that New Delhi will be among the fastest growing major economies in the world.[5]
Challenges will include border conflicts and regional balances. For example, in the last months of 2022, activity on the China-India border increased. Following the 2020 conflict, the confrontation between the forces of the two countries in the Arunachal Pradesh region is significant in terms of its impact and the possibilities it holds. It is also possible that more conflicts of interest may arise in the future. On the other hand, both countries demonstrate power with military exercises and send messages to each other. This paves the way for parties to take a tougher stance.
The incident in which Indian and Chinese security forces responded to each other with stones and sticks on the Sino-Indian border is also significant as it shows that the two nuclear powers do not want the problem to escalate. Therefore, keeping border tensions limited to minor incidents and keeping them under control will be a priority for both countries in 2023, despite all the challenges. Nevertheless, it is clear that border disputes with China will be at the top of the list of challenges India will face. The current situation in Pakistan and the rivalry between New Delhi and Islamabad will also continue to be challenges for India.
In conclusion, it can be said that the year 2023 presents a number of challenges and diplomatic opportunities for India. It is clear that developments such as border problems and regional disputes will continue to present challenges. On the other hand, diplomatic moves such as playing a role in the Russia-West dialogue and taking part in mediation initiatives within the scope of the G20 and SCO could also be possible. Moreover, New Delhi can also come to the fore in shaping the international agenda. Increased visibility on the international stage could also give the Modi government credibility at the domestic level ahead of the general elections. There is also the prospect of an economically developing India.
[1] “2023: The Year India May Realise Its Global Power Aspirations”, Indian Express, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ram-madhav-2023-india-global-power-8353078/, (Date of Accession: 02.01.2023).
[2] “As G20 Presidency Passes to India, It Can Bring Renewed Focus to Sustainability Deadlines”, Indian Express, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-g20-presidency-pm-narendra-modi-8287257/, (Date of Accession: 02.01.2023).
[3] “G20: The Presidency Passes to India, a Rising Power and Voice of the Southern Hemisphere”, Nova News, https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/g20-presidency-passes-india-rising-power-and-voice-of-the-global-south/, (Date of Accession: 02.01.2023).
[4] “‘We Know This is not Easily Resolvable Situation but…’: S Jaishankar Voices ‘Deep’ Concern over Ukraine Conflict”, Times Now News, https://www.timesnownews.com/india/we-know-this-is-not-easily-resolvable-situation-but-s-jaishankar-voices-deep-concern-over-ukraine-conflict-article-96670725, (Date of Accession: 02.01.2023).
[5] “India’s Global Ambitions Begin at Home”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/indias-global-ambitions-begin-at-home/, (Date of Accession: 02.01.2023).
