Kamil SARI
The ongoing war in Ukraine and the Trump administration’s changing stance toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are forcing the European Union (EU) to face an inevitable reality. Turkey’s strategic importance has now reached a level that cannot be ignored. Recent developments highlight the urgency of the EU reassessing its partnerships. Trump’s exclusion of the EU and Ukraine from talks on the ongoing war with Russia, his expression of intent to expand US territory by purchasing Greenland from Denmark, and his belittling of NATO’s importance have made Turkey an indispensable actor in Europe’s quest for security and stability.
The Trump administration is questioning the protection commitments of allies who do not meet defense spending targets, taking a skeptical approach to NATO. Trump’s statements to alliance countries that “if they don’t pay, they don’t get protection. It’s that simple” are causing concern in Europe about the future of NATO. European leaders are divided into three main groups on this issue. The first group, inspired by Charles de Gaulle and referred to as “Gaullists,” led by French President Emmanuel Macron, defends the continent’s strategic autonomy and calls for reducing dependence on the United States (US).
The second group includes countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, which advocate maintaining strong transatlantic ties. Viewing NATO as the “only reliable security umbrella” against Russia’s aggression, this group is calling for an increase in US military presence in Europe. The third group is represented by leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who advocate for a more pragmatic relationship with Russia. These leaders argue that long-term stability cannot be achieved without diplomatic dialogue with Moscow and oppose further escalation of economic and military conflicts.
The divisions between these groups are making it difficult for the EU to develop a unified security strategy. In particular, the shift in US foreign policy priorities under the Trump administration is calling into question Europe’s alignment with the global order. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) 2024 report on the subject reveals that[i] It shows that despite increasing their defense budgets, NATO member countries in Europe have not yet fully developed their military capabilities. This situation makes cooperation with external actors even more important.
Turkey, which has NATO’s second largest army and is rapidly developing its defense industry, plays a key role in European security, particularly with its advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology. Turkey’s control over the Straits is becoming even more strategically important, especially as tensions continue in Ukraine. Unlike European powers, Turkey is pursuing a balanced policy between Ukraine and Russia. By facilitating grain export agreements between Kiev and Moscow, Turkey has contributed to the protection of global food supply chains, while also demonstrating its ability to engage in dialogue with both sides by taking a central role in prisoner exchange negotiations.
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, Director of the European Neighbourhood Council, states that the current potential for EU-Turkey rapprochement depends on three key factors: “First, Customs Union reform must be brought back to the agenda and negotiations must begin as soon as possible. If the Customs Union is renewed, it can be said that common security and foreign policy will become more harmonized.” [ii] Secondly, Vesterbye emphasizes the need to put security back on the agenda:[iii]
“There are currently obstacles to initiatives such as Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defense Fund. It would be wise to focus on security issues. However, progress may not be possible due to obstacles within the EU. In this case, it will be important to work with the UK, France, and other EU countries to include Turkey in a European security agreement within the framework of NATO.”
Thirdly, Vesterbye emphasized the importance of connectivity for EU-Turkey relations, stating: “There is potential for greater cooperation between Brussels and Ankara in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East.”[iv]
Turkey’s role in migration management once again highlights its importance to the EU. EU officials acknowledge that previous agreements, such as the 2016 EU-Turkey Agreement, have helped stabilize the crisis and emphasize the need for new and strengthened agreements on migration. The rise of far-right parties in Europe and changing public demands are forcing leaders to balance public expectations with tougher migration policies. In Germany, a proposal to tighten migration rules, supported by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has been approved by parliament. Italy, meanwhile, is implementing a plan to transfer migrant processing to a non-EU country and speed up the return of unsuccessful asylum seekers.
Other European leaders are calling for increased border security and controls. Cooperation with Ankara in controlling irregular migration flows is vital for EU leaders to strengthen their voter base. Beyond security, Turkey is an important economic partner for the EU. Turkey’s role in the energy sector is also expanding. As part of Europe’s efforts to move away from Russian gas, Turkey is a key transit hub for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines from Azerbaijan and the Eastern Mediterranean.
In conclusion, in the face of changing global power dynamics, the EU is confronted with urgent issues such as security, economy, and migration. Turkey’s military strength, economic ties, and strategic location demonstrate that it is an indispensable partner in Europe’s future roadmap. In the near future, the EU may need to rapidly reorganize its relations with Turkey to reflect the new geopolitical realities in the world.
[i] “The Armed Conflict Survey 2024”, IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/armed-conflict-survey/2024/armed-conflict-survey-2024/, (Date Accessed: 02.07.2025).
[ii] “Uzmanlara göre, AB’nin ‘Fikirdaş Ülkeler Girişimi’ zamanında bir adım”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/uzmanlara-gore-ab-nin-fikirdas-ulkeler-girisimi-zamaninda-bir-adim/3504990, (Date Accessed: 02.07.2025).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Ibid.
