On September 5, 2025, at a press conference held with Volodymyr Zelensky at the Élysée Palace in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that 26 countries had pledged to provide post-war security guarantees to Ukraine, including an international force on land, sea, and air.[1] Regarding this matter, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed that if this scenario were to occur, foreign military forces in Ukraine would become Russia’s “legitimate target”.[2]
These developments have increased the risk that the war in Ukraine will lead to direct conflict between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia. Indeed, most European actors are also NATO members. While Article 5 of the NATO Charter provides for collective defense, the conditions necessary for this article to come into effect are explained in Article 6 as follows: “…an armed attack against the forces, ships, or aircraft of any of the parties.” Therefore, the targeting of NATO member forces in Ukraine by Russia could pave the way for a possible NATO-Russia war.
It should be noted that Macron first raised the option of deploying NATO troops to Ukraine in 2024, but most European countries, including Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland, stated that they had no such plans. Also in 2024, there was frequent debate about whether NATO weapons could be used in attacks on Russian territory, while Russia warned NATO that it could use nuclear weapons in response to such scenarios.
Taking this danger into account, the United States initially opposed Ukraine’s use of American-made weapons to strike targets in Russia, but later granted limited permission. Unwilling to pave the way for a potential NATO-Russia war, the US pressured its European allies to follow the same steps. In this context, Germany opposed Ukraine’s use of Taurus missiles to attack Russia for a long time, and then took steps to shorten the range of these missiles.
The deployment of European troops to Ukraine while the war continues could potentially lead to a conflict with Russia, so the idea of sending these missions after the war has been discussed. However, in both scenarios, Russia strongly opposes this and has warned it will respond. Russia cites NATO expansion as the justification for its attack on Ukraine and argues that the security of all states must be taken into account in accordance with the “Indivisible Security Principle.” Therefore, Russia is firmly opposed to any potential peace agreement with Ukraine that includes “Ukraine’s NATO membership, security guarantees, or troop deployment”.
European actors, however, have come closer to implementing the very issues that Russia considers as justifications for its attack on Ukraine. These steps contribute to the deepening of the crisis. In other words, even if the war in Ukraine were to end, Russia continues to oppose such a deployment. Under these circumstances, Western attempts to send troops to Ukraine may lead to a further distancing from peace and the prolongation of the war. In this case, rather than turning to peace negotiations, Russia is likely to focus on continuing the war.
NATO’s stance regarding the war in Ukraine has also shifted compared to 2024. While in 2024 discussions centered on the deployment of military personnel to Ukraine for training purposes, this proposal was opposed by most NATO members as well as by the then-Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg.[3] Similarly, many NATO member states were reluctant to allow their weapons to be used for attacks against Russia. At that time, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Q. Brown stated that the NATO military alliance would “eventually” have to deploy a significant number of active-duty personnel to Ukraine.[4] At the current stage, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized that Russia has no authority over the deployment of troops to Ukraine, underlining that Ukraine is a “sovereign” state and therefore has the right to decide on developments within its own territory, meaning that Russia cannot interfere in this matter.[5]
The increasing willingness of European actors, particularly the NATO Secretary General, to consider deploying troops to Ukraine can be regarded as a “dangerous initiative” that may facilitate Russia’s continuation of the war in Ukraine. The Baltic states rank among the most eager European countries to send troops or provide other forms of security assistance to Ukraine. In Eastern Europe and the Baltic region, a stronger NATO presence is regarded by these states as vital against potential attacks from Russia. Having launched the war on Ukraine in order to halt NATO’s expansion and to secure new guarantees from the United States formalized in writing, Russia has failed to achieve this objective and now faces the risk of a greater NATO deployment along its border. In this respect, Russia has come considerably close to becoming the “clear loser” of the war. During this process, U.S. President Donald Trump focused on persuading Putin to engage in peace negotiations with Ukraine; however, when unsuccessful, he indirectly warned Putin by stating, “we will see what happens”.[6] Trump’s warnings may be related to providing security guarantees to Ukraine and to a potential NATO deployment. European actors and the United States have begun to take “far-reaching measures” to persuade Putin to engage in peace negotiations regarding the Ukraine war. Providing security guarantees to Ukraine or deploying troops could result in Russia becoming the “clear loser” in the conflict. At this point, since it appears unlikely that Russia will relinquish its demands regarding NATO, the prolongation of the war remains a plausible scenario. On the other hand, should Russia agree to participate in peace negotiations, it seems inevitable that provisions concerning NATO and troop deployments would be included among the negotiated terms.
[1] “Macron says 26 nations ready to provide postwar military backing to Ukraine”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/04/european-leaders-pressure-trump-to-reveal-how-much-support-us-will-give-ukraine, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[2] “Foreign troops in Ukraine would be ‘legitimate targets’ for Russia, Vladimir Putin warns”, FT, https://www.ft.com/content/b41ef3ef-1837-4de2-9e0d-ab6904c1cd50, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[3] “Some NATO countries are considering sending military instructors to Ukraine – NYT”, Pravda, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/16/7456160/, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[4] “US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says NATO will deploy troops to Ukraine”, WSWS, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/05/17/smzs-m17.html, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[5] “Ukraine allies push security guarantees amid US and Russian uncertainties”, Al Jazeraa, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/4/ukraine-allies-push-security-guarantees-amid-us-and-russian-uncertainties, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
[6] “Trump Putin’i açık açık tehdit etti! ‘Neler olacağını göreceksiniz’”, Milliyet, https://www.milliyet.com.tr/dunya/trump-putini-acik-acik-tehdit-etti-neler-olacagini-goreceksiniz-7439008, (Date of Access: 05.09.2025).
