In May 2025, the first case of avian influenza was detected in a commercial poultry farm in Brazil, a major shock to the country’s animal food exports.[1] This case, reported in the city of Montenegro, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, represents not only a local health crisis, as Brazil is one of the world leaders in the production of animal products, but also a potential trade crisis that could affect the global food chain. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture quickly reported the case to the World Organization for Animal Health (WHO) and control measures were put in place.
Following the announcement of the cases, Brazil’s major trading partners, including China, the European Union (EU), Mexico, Argentina and South Korea, imposed import restrictions on chicken and derivatives. In some countries, these bans were nationwide, while in others, restrictions were imposed only in the state or city where the cases originated. In particular, countries such as Japan and Saudi Arabia only banned products from Montenegro, while major importers such as China imposed a nationwide ban. This led to a short-term contraction in Brazil’s poultry exports.[2]
As international sales declined due to export restrictions, the supply of chicken in Brazil’s domestic market increased and this oversupply was reflected in consumer prices. By June, chicken meat prices had fallen by an average of 7%.[3] While this decline may seem positive in the short term, especially for the Brazilian government, which is struggling with food inflation, it has led to serious economic losses for producers. Some producers have decided to cut their production in order to avoid a supply-demand imbalance, which in the long run creates the risk of a rebound in domestic market prices.
In order to prevent the spread of the outbreak, the Ministry of Agriculture and the private sector have turned to large-scale culling policies. First, 17,000 chickens were culled from an infected farm.[4] Subsequently, major producers such as BRF and JBS culled approximately 141,000 chickens as a precautionary measure, although no infection was detected.[5] In addition, strict biosecurity rules were introduced, such as mandatory showering, changing of clothes and physical isolation measures around buildings. These measures aimed to prevent both the spread of the virus within the farm and regional outbreaks.
Brazil’s natural geographical barriers, such as the Amazon Basin, the Andes and coastal mountains, have provided a significant advantage in limiting the domestic spread of the virus. Nevertheless, the increasing number of wild bird cases since 2023 indicates that the virus has settled in a permanent nature reservoir. More than 174 cases of wild birds, especially in coastal areas and wetlands, pose a long-term public health and animal health threat.[6] This could pave the way for new outbreaks with new mutations in the future.
In June, after 28 days of no new cases, the WHO declared that Brazil had regained its status as an “avian influenza-free country”.[7] Following this development, a total of 17 countries such as Japan, Iraq, South Korea, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan lifted their restrictions on Brazil. In particular, Japan’s rapid normalization of trade was a strategic sign of recovery for Brazil. Thus, Brazil had the chance to recover some of its economic losses with the resumption of trade.[8]
Although avian influenza is rarely transmitted to humans, the potential for the virus to mutate over time and become transmissible between humans is a serious public health concern. In current cases, the risk of transmission between humans appears to be very low. However, the fact that the virus has become endemic in wild animal populations shows that this risk has not completely disappeared. Strict implementation of personal protection measures, especially by farm workers, is critical in preventing zoonotic transmission.
Although Brazil has not resorted to vaccination for now, international organizations such as the WHO are encouraging the introduction of vaccination strategies in high-risk areas. However, vaccination is a logistically and diplomatically complex process due to technical requirements such as “distinguishing between infected and vaccinated animals” (DIVA) in international trade. Therefore, it is expected that digital recording systems and certification protocols will be established in the coming period to increase the traceability of vaccination.
The avian influenza outbreak in Brazil was a test not only for the country’s economy but also for the global food supply chain. Thanks to rapid response, strict biosecurity measures and international transparency, the outbreak was contained within 28 days. However, the fact that the virus has become endemic in wild bird populations indicates that new outbreaks may occur in the future. This calls for an integrated approach not only to animal health, but also to multidimensional risks such as climate change, migratory bird routes and trade vulnerability. How Brazil managed this crisis is both an example and a warning for developing agricultural countries. For a lasting solution, the “One Health” approach and digital monitoring systems are crucial.
[1] Mano, Ana, Roberto Samora ve Debora Ely. “Brazil Poised to Declare Itself Bird Flu ‘Free,’ State Official Says.” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brazil-poised-declare-itself-bird-flu-free-state-official-says-2025-06-18/, (Accessed Date: 06.29.2025).
[2] Mano, Ana, ve Isabel Teles. “Brazil Says Japan, 16 Others Removed Bird Flu‑Related Trade Restrictions.” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brazil-says-japan-16-others-removed-bird-flu-related-trade-restrictions-2025-06-24/, (Accessed Date: 06.29.2025).
[3] “Brazil Agriculture Minister: Signs Show Efficient Control of Bird Flu Outbreak.” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brazil-minister-says-signs-show-efficient-control-bird-flu-outbreak-2025-06-04/, (Accessed Date: 06.29.2025).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Mano, Ana, ve Tom Polansek. “Geography Helps Shield Brazil from US‑Style Bird Flu Epidemic, for Now.” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/geography-helps-shield-brazil-us-style-bird-flu-epidemic-now-2025-06-18/, (Accessed Date: 06.29.2025).
[7] Romani, Andre ve Natalia Siniawski. “Iraq Removes, South Korea Eases Restrictions on Import of Brazil Chicken Meat.” Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/iraq-removes-south-korea-eases-restrictions-import-brazil-chicken-meat-2025-06-23/, (Accessed Date: 06.29.2025).
[8] Mano ve Teles, “Brazil Says Japan.”
